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I had a couple trades after the release and thought with this nice big draw of -7.6m vs. expected -2.9m, we could go towards $47.
The headline number was pretty bullish but the components were a bit weaker and might have added the move lower. Gasoline only showed a -1.6m draw and diesel even showed a build of more than 3m. I guess, transportation and freight industries use mostly diesel and it showed a sign of weakness for less demand. Even you could consider that US refineries were exporting less diesel to other countries hence the build and potential sell-off. The other explanation is that we had traders with lots of long-positions which had protective stops around 45.50ish to 45.30ish which were hit and just sparked the quick sell-off. We traded down 80T within 2.5min, I would call it a stop run but any other comments are welcome here.
Anyways right after the number we only ticked up about 35T and then came back to the OR-L and then went back up 50T. Here I entered a long 3 times, see below:
Trade 1:
Entry: 46.27
Stop: 46.19
Long after we quickly found support at even $46 but within 3 seconds stopped out and traded lower.
Trade 2:
Entry: 46.01
Stop: 45.93
Long after it jumped off the OR-L, unlucky stopped within 1 second right on the tick and then back up.
Trade 3:
Entry: 46.01
Stop: 45.93
Long again at same level after it jumped off the OR-L, unlucky stopped out again within 5 second right on the tick and then back up towards 46.40. Pretty annoyed that it happened again but well. These movements are always extreme right after the release because traders start to digest the news and go into the numbers and form their opinions and everybody obviously digest them differently, therefore these crazy moves.
Trade 4:
Entry: 46.09
Stop: 46.01
Long for my last trade as I was close to my daily loss limit. First it went against me 6T and then started to move up. I had my target at 10T and it reached +9T but out at +4T with my ATM strat.
Trade 5:
Entry: 46.20
Stop: 46.12
Again long because it came up pretty strong from the 46.05 level, hence even 46 held and thought we could go up. Only off by 2T and then it just went up and up and my target +10T was hit. Of course went up another 10T but finally happy that a trade worked out.
Trade 6:
Entry: 46.26
Stop: 46.34
Short as it couldn't break the 46.40 level on the 2nd move up and sold for the move lower. Good trade as I didn't interfere in the trade and my target at +10T was hit with the stop trailing behind it.
I went short ES after I saw we made a high and traded lower. However, I saw NQ finding support and thought that ES would come back up. Therefore, I booked a small gain of 3T and then I would've been stopped at BE as it went back to my entry before going back lower and finding support. It just continued in a really tight range, hence I focused back on CL and had 4 more trades see below.
Trade 8:
Entry: 45.52
Stop 45.44
Long after it found support from yday-midday highs. Went in and it quickly went up and I had my target at the ONL. Filled and out but up another 15T.
Trade 9:
Entry: 45.43
Stop: 45.35
Long after we found support from the LOD we just had 10min ago. Thought we could see a double bottom and long, quickly up 5T then out at BE.
Trade 10:
Entry: 45.20
Stop: 45.12
Long again after we just made a new low again, saw support from yday close and weekly pivot point. Again quickly up 5T but out again at BE.
Trade 11:
Entry: 45.25
Stop: 45.17
Again in and wanted to book a profit. This time booked a profit after being stopped out twice in a row with nothing. Target at +10T would've been hit then back to initial entry. Didn't want to take the long again as I thought we could trade lower again and I was watching Wimbledon
Trade 12:
Entry: 45.88
Stop: 45.96
We had a pretty nice run while I was watching tennis. But when we came up to the OR-L, reg-open and R1 and ONH + OR-H, thought it was pretty good resistance area as so many levels lined up. However, I went out with a mere 2T as I was still watching the Federer-Raonic match and couldn't focus properly. Very stupid because after taking it off, it went down 50T....
Trade 13:
Entry: 45.50
Stop: 45.42
I went long after the 10:30 support zone at around 45.40ish held. Told myself I wouldn't touch the trade after entering and I did so. However, I was up 5T, then stopped at BE. So pretty annoyed as it just touched my stop and then traded up another 30T...again a big miss and good entry, just stupid ATM!
I'm just posting my excel sheet with all my trades and daily P&L, will head for lunch now and check in an hour or so in order to see if I'll put on some more ES trades.
Great to see such diligent data collection. I always find it hard to collect data like this in real time on scalp style especially. I assume some of this is pasted or exported out of the platform, and others calculated manually, but still a lot of effort to streamline that effort.
Question:Is Actual Risk and On Side High similar to MAE / MFE?
It's actually not that bad. It takes a relatively minor effort to set up an Excel template with formulas, but once you have it it takes 1-2 mins to populate from most major platforms. The rest is comments, etc.
Yeah it takes a bit of time to put it all manually into the excel spreadsheet, I just export from Ninja Entry, Exit, Time-in and time-out, the rest I have to put manually in. On my spreadsheet everything in white and orange I have to put in.
To answer your question, actual risk and actual high while in a trade is the same as MAE and MFE.
I need this kind of data to assess my ATM, as you can see today I was stopped out at BE again only to see it run my way...so only 30 trades more for my sample size and then the ATM will be reassessed but I'll talk again about this issue in my daily recap later. Just need to work on the other business stuff right now.
Sure seems like that ATM has been your Achilles Heel thus far, interested to see what your assessment is after you're done sampling and what adjustments you might make. And again, kudos on your patience with the matter.
yeah it's been pretty annoying thus fur but well gotta stick to my own rules otherwise I'll change something and don't really have the data to back it up. So hopefully only 2 or 3 more trading sessions
Thanks for sharing your excel screenshot. Its similar to mine but after seeing yours there are going to be some changes
Those touch and goes (stops to the tick) - man they are soul destroying especially when price rips away in your original direction.
Yeah I was mostly referring to the manual notes in case like this where you have fired off 7 trades in 10 minutes, including a note pre (why am I taking this, what category of setup is it) and post (wha happened). Filling this out retroactively can be problematic.
I personally have a problem honestly assessing the rationale behind winning entries vs losing entries. Better if I make those notes before I know how it turned out.
As an NT8 user one thing that infuriates me is when you export a perfomance grid it forces everything - numbers dates dollars whatever - to text formats by appending a ' at the head of each value. Need to find replace those out before importing or do conversions in spreadsheet program before any formula work... its the little things. And if yiu want to scale in and out and track flat to flat, in NT you kind of need to roll your own solution.
