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Mastering Modern Elliot Wave for Consitent Profits Journal FIO July 2017
Thanks for your kind words @GFIs1 !
In did, clarity is an important part of trading, not just which trade to take, but also why we trade, and what are our goals ! And sadly, its often forgotten, because a lot of peoples search the magic indicator to trade with..
Hello !
I'm lancing myself in a little challenge, to improve everyone count, and understanding of the theory.
So, every day, you will get a new blank chart, where your goal is to make an analysis of this chart, you can share it if you want, and the day after, i'm giving a chart with my analysis and count of the same move, and why i have this count. And the result of the move. (so in reality it will be a new chart to analyse every two days)
I know with the little poll that i put in place (you can answer it if you didn't), that there is not many peoples familiar with the modern elliot wave theory (this is pretty new, only 10 years, comparing to the old theory that is here for more than 80 years !).
So, i didn't yet explain how to counts waves, and do an analysis with the modern elliot wave theory. And explain why its a amazing tool for traders and investors (you can use it in scalping, day-trading, up to investments of multiples decades !). But don't worry, its coming ! Its just a really big subject, and i don't want to rush it, and not be clear.
So in the mean time, i'm still giving you the first chart, i hide the price so you don't try to find the charts, see what happen, and then do your analysis, simply because in realtime we don't have this luxury ! If you do have an idea of what is the old theory, try to analyse the charts, if you have no idea of what the elliot wave theory, still try to see what this chart is doing, and if you have expectation on the direction of the price, to be enable to take a trade.
I'm not keeping you waiting ! Don't forget to subscribe to the tread to not miss the tomorrow analysis for this chart.
1597 ticks chart (i'm soon going to explain why a tick chart), this is the "global" chart.
And this is the 89 ticks chart, a zoom in the price to see the what to price is doing in the internally (i'm also going to share why this is so important when trading and using the elliot wave theory).
Don't forget to post your analysis and expectations on this chart if you want to share it to progress faster, and not making any excuses to yourself like : hmm, i was right, that's obvious, but on the moment you were not right.
By the way, if you read this after the chart with my analysis is published, try to not scroll now, do your analysis first
If you did the analyse this chart of yesterday, here's my count for the 2 charts, and the results (by the way, if you didn't try to analyse the charts, do this, and then comeback to the results )
There is a lot of explanations on the charts, so open them in full-screen, the first move that we can see on the chart can be an abc. Because the rules of an abc are : the wave A must be in 5 waves, the wave B in 3, and the wave C in 5. Otherwise its not a abc (we can always label an abc an abc, even if the rules are not completes, but its better to label this as an YWX, which is 3 waves, 3 waves, and 3 waves. But if for example we have a 5-3-3. This can be a deviant (a pattern that look like an abc, but the market don't agree with this scenario, so it became a deviant). If we see before the entry that the move is a deviant, we dont want to trade it.
But if the deviant happen after the entry, we can't do a lot, other than wait. Like we can see on the second pattern in the chart. The move is a YWX or an deviant abc, made in 5-3-3, or 5-3-5, but the last 5 wave are not perfect, because there no divergence on the 5 wave of the c wave, but there is divergence on the 89 ticks chart (by the way, i'm still playing around with the cci configuration, i'm going to talk about this soon, but the value on the chart are 21 for 1597 ticks, and 377 for 89 ticks, i have change this to 34 for the 1597 ticks, and 610 for the 89 ticks, i'm going to explain why and how soon). But, i didn't made those change based on this trade, and so, you need to keep working with what you use and what you have (when there was no divergence, i didn't play with the cci period to get one for example).
At the end, its a good abc, and we could have taken a trade right after the top of the B wave, or a tiny bit before, and we would had an entry of either 43,26, or 43,22. And then, by applying the target strategy, and the trail stop method, we would had been stopped out at 42,81. So either 45 ticks of gains, or 41 ticks.
Yes, the exit would have not been perfect, but we are not trying to "master" the markets, but to get high probability entry and exit. And we catch the piece of the move, that's what matter.
By the way, i'm not showing and making those trades, to show off how the elliot wave theory can be good, and how much ticks it can produce, on charts that are not realtime, but i'm making finding and sharing those charts, so that when i will explain how to count wave and what are the patterns, you could practice, without being left alone on a chart, which can be hard to make sense of it when you start.
That's why, i would really like your feedback, and that tomorrow, on the day after, you share your analysis on the charts that i give, even if you dont know how to use the elliot wave theory, but to share your expectations on the charts.
I am also going to share fake trade, not only trade that work out, but trade and move that were not good to take, and how we could have see this before taking the trade, but obviously, you will not know if the charts made good or bad results
And i'm also going to share trade that we could have taken, and that would have follow the theory, the plan, and the rules, but that didn't workout (as soon as i find a move like this lol).
So stay tuned, and subscribe to the post if you don't want to miss tomorrow charts (by the way, for thoses who wander, i didn't take any trades today, the markets are not really in a good spot to take elliot trade, because the market are in a huge X wave (in my opinion), and that's really the worse move to have good trades. So, i'm not going to share a lot of trades this week, but if next week the x wave is done, we should have more opportunities !
And if you want to stay tuned for what's next on this tread, check out the post with the plans for this tread :
Hello !
I'm going to share my plans for this journal, you can also suggest things.
- Posting regularly blanks charts without counts, so you can easily open the chart, try to do your count, and the day after, i post the same chart, but with my count, …
Edit : i just saw that the fib on the 1597 ticks chart is not put at all well, but in reality the price bounce on the 127% extension, and anyway, with the trailing stop strategy that i will explain soon, we would had the exact same exit.
Hello !
Here's the second analyse this chart, i still did not explained a lot about the theory and the elliot wave counts, but for those who wonder, its coming !
We are going to soon speak about the pattern that we should look for as an elliot wave day-trader, and how to use our subconscious intelligence in our trading to increase our results.
Don't forget to try to analyse those charts, before you watch my counts, if they are already posted
1597 ticks : global chart, but zoomed, but we are in an overall of a big uptrend at this point.
89 ticks : smaller chart, so we can more easilly see what the price is doing inside the candle, and spot the "smalls" patterns, tomorrow (05/07/17) i will explain the principle of fractalisation, and smaller pattern inside bigger one, and how they can help you, know if the bigger pattern and waves will be good, before they happen !
Hello, i'm going to discuss about 2 things in this post, first the news about this journal and my trading, and then, i'm going to share the results of the analyse this chart of yesterday.
So news :
I didn't upload my trades yet, it has not been a busy start of the week, like i said in previous posts, but the pattern and wave that is around us for a while, just probably break (i don't trade those type of waves, that can last months, but its important to know the overall structure and direction of the market, to make better counts of waves). I'm not going to discuss about this pattern, because its not about just a trade, but its about the overall direction of the CL, in the next weeks and months, and i don't want to influence anyone.
But so, i will probably have more opportunities soon, and i have worked a lot on the divergence principle, and my cci (i will speak about this soon), so, its taking is time, but i already work really well with waves, all those divergence and indicator stuff is super small to do, but its still need to be work on, to have all the odds on our favors.
Its also important, to take losings trades in SIM, example : i have taken one full stop trade of 33 ticks today, because of this, i could not take a trade that needed 75 ticks of stop (i don't want to be enable to lose more than 100 ticks per day at any time). So i didn't take the trade, sadly, it would have been a 77 ticks winner, but that's okay.
The point of this, is that, even if it can be frustrating, we need to be patient, and instead of screaming around like a lot of people could do (this is not an insult), i try to understand why my loser was a loser and didn't work, and what could i learn from the potential 77 ticks winner, to take more trade like this in the futur.
I discovered a huge correlation between the wave principle and the divergence principle that i never saw, and that would have avoid me to take this loser, and that can help us, as elliot wave traders, to know when a cycle as ended. (if you are familiar with the old elliot wave principle, to know when a 5 as ended, and to not take a trade after the 5, in the direction of the 5, by thinking that its just a pullback and correction, when in reality, its often a trend reversing in a new cycle or correction).
Enough of this, i keep you updated , but here's the results of the analyse this chart :
So here's the 1597 ticks chart, this move, and potentiel trade that i share, would not have been a good move, and i'm going to explain why, how you can avoid those bad move, with elliot wave theory, or any strategy.
When you are trading, with any strategy, you need to learn what move, patterns and situations works for you, in my case, its the C wave, and the 3 wave that i like the most. So i'm only going to look for those setup, only them. So those setup are : 0-A wave or 0-1 wave made in a clear 5, then a A-B or 1-2 wave in any corrective structure (triangle, abc, ywx, flat), if the move hit or go above 38,2% fib of the 0-A or 0-1 wave (to be sure its not a fake correction, and that everybody saw it).
Now watch the two charts, and try to understand what you see.
Now that you did that, there's is two reasons why we would have not taken this trade :
- 1 : The corrective wave, is a 5-3-3, this is a deviant, a deviant is a combinaison of 2 patterns that are not supposed to come together, like a 5-3-3 move (you can see on the 89 ticks chart, there is 5 wave down labeled, then 3 up, and 3 down, so the language used will be 5-3-3). Classic corrective patterns can be : 3-3-3 ; 5-3-5 ; 3-3-5 ; 5-3-5-3-5 (i'm not going to explain in details the different corrective patterns, but those are the waves that we are looking for in a corrective pattern).
A deviant is not a real corrective pattern, and show a indecision in mind of traders, we don't want to trade when a deviant is involved.
- 2 : The most important reason, even if its not really obvious. There is not divergence between the wave 3 and 5. I'm not going to go in the details of exactly how and why, because this is a subject i'm working on, but keep in mind, that if you use the rsi, the cci, the stoch, the macd to spot divergence (when an indicator go lower, but the price go higher, or the opposite), it showing us weakness in the move, and that's one of the reason and rules of the trend of 5. Because since we know the third wave is the strongest one, we need to have a divergence between the 3 and 5, to tell us, that the strength is weaker at the end of the impulsive wave. And yes there is a divergence if you take the high value of the cci indicator, but there is none if you take the value of the indicator, when we were at the high and were the waves ended. I'm going to speak about this soon.
Even if i'm not posting a lot of things lately, i have big plans for really soon Have a fantastic day !!
I just want to share that i'm trying to create this for a little while, and i have made a thread on the ninjatrader programming forum, to get help, to create a semi-automated strategy that will help a lot of person.
If we can successfully make this, we would not have the need to monitoring our trades after the entry, everything would be automated after the entry, but we still do all the decisions making, and, in a way, when we would have entered a trade, we would have finish the trade.
I have explain in details the plan to how we could create this, i'm looking for help because i'm not great at programming ninjascript, but i do understand the logic of ninjascript, and that's why there's is a full plan, and how the idea could become reality.
Hello !
I'm trying to create a semi-automated strategy (not an atm strategy), but a strategy that will not make any decisions, but that can draw a fib extension, adjust the fib if the point where the fib has been drawn is broken, and, if a certain …
Also, i'm not going to post any analyse this chart, but i'm going to talk about the future of this journal.
