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Sydney NSW Australia
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7 / MT4
Broker: KINETICK
Trading: EUR/USD, AUS200(SPI)
Posts: 40 since May 2012
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 100
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I've been trading currencies for 9 years or so. Most of that time has been spent as part of a team and generally I don’t directly execute, rather supply information for consideration. I have spent stretches trading futures markets full time which i do prefer, but FX is more feasible for me to trade for multiple reasons I won’t go into.
The FX market is an interesting beast. After spending so long involved with it and having spent a fair amount of time watching futures, I believe FX is less predictable. Likely owing to the fact that FX is traded in pairs and also a bunch of commercial business is transacted often and sporadically that has no consideration for market order etc...
So i am keen to see if I can apply my knowledge to develop and edge trading just the EURUSD for the first few hours of Euro Open.
I will be using the following tools to identify areas of interest for potential trade ops.
1. Historical Highs / Low and
2. Measured Moves (Corrective / Impulsive)
3. First revisit of sticky areas of range trading (balance areas)
4. Trend Lines
5. Market structure (LL, HH, HL, LH)
6. Fibonacci’s both impulsive and corrective if they have significant and rare confluence with 2 - 3 factors.
7. Open price of the Euro Session and the current positioning to that
8. Stochs which are custom fitted to each chart
9. FX Stregth meters to understand market drivers (is US leading etc)
Ultimately, I am looking for multiple factors of confulence in a tight range where I can control risk, once identified I will confim entry on the tick chart. Exits will be adhoc potentially 2 positions with 1 to ride.. currently undecided.
Further more, I will be keeping a lookout on the 10 Tick 6E to see super short term price action in order to confirm entry. On this chart I will be keeping an eye on GOM Cum Delta. (thanks to the developer) , primarily I am looking for divergence which I noticed happens quite often, at first glance it seems to give telltale signs of weak moves but I would like to confirm the validity of this over time.
For me, the jury is out as to whether futures volume can have any relevance to spot. I cant quite get my head around the relationship between the two markets. I have concern that the 6e VOL is largely predominantly created by arb traders and therefore the volume info on it is only relevant as to what needed to happen to sharpen the price up... but i am interested to watch it for any clues to make up my own mind.
Entries will be relatively discretionary based on all the information mentioned above. I am looking for trades to go my way pretty quickly and I will get out if i don’t see confirmation of the anticipated move.
Lastly, you will notice the Jigsaw platform on the attached screenshot. Like the CD I am interested to see if there may be clues here that help with spot predictability inside a couple of ticks. Having said that, I think the volume profile on it is very useful to see intraday balance areas.
If you may be wondering, all indicators you see on the screen apart from GOM CD and Jigsaw are deveoped by me for my own personal use. (not available for sale)
That’s all I have time for now, I will update as I go along. Please feel free to comment and provide feedback.
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