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So 7700 was the high, pitty I didn't sell it more aggressively as seeing sentiment change it was a prime sell.. but still got something out of it so not so bad. It dropped just yesterday to 7600 and I have been buying a bit.. and I am thinking I should be selling any rallies tonight and Thursday... but we shall see.
draw-down reduced a bit and some small profits but I could have been out of this if I had of held onto my 7700 shorts.. I had a heaps but I put the stops at +2 once price was 10 pips away or more and the market managed to swing back and hit most of them with only one or two running - was worried it would pop through 7700 and try to find support (tbh), but 2 is better than none I guess.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Had some time to look today so this is roughly what I have.
Delta divergence is telling me these levels are potentially a buy. We are just about at the main volume point of control (LT high 7780 - low 7550) so maybe it will push down a little bit more to 7540 (where there is a lot of 'old' support) and if we stay above the VWAP by the end of the week then I'm thinking there might be a 'technical' long bias as well.
Also this is forming: - so basically, anything could happen from this point
The volume profile going back to 7th of June has price right in the middle of the bell. Generally this is what I understand to be the place where buyer and sellers are 'most happy' as price and volume is facilitated the best (in equilibrium?). So it will probably fill this out a bit and then there will be a push to either extreme again (this is why price tends to fall to these areas when buyers or sellers are missing).
Currently I'm averaged long at 7610 and short at 7548 - net short on exposure.
I'll buy some dips if we break lower to 7560 or so and maybe then my average long will be 7560 or so (if I'm lucky)... so just a ten point difference, currently 60. I'm doing this before the weekend when I will look at the sentiments a bit more, but from what I can tell most of them have it at ~50:50 for now.
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this is the other account I'm running using cTrader via Pepperstone. It's not hedged as much as the other, just using Bollinger Bands with VIDYA MA's... I'll probably keep trading that one this month as well as put it up on myfxbook.
So here's the daily showing 7850 being sold and buyers pushing it up so a break and support above 7750 would be bullish.. the failure would probably see it fall.. so that is why my net exposure is quite low at the moment (will try to get long though).
Generally I don't try to predict direction, just attempt to react to it (if there is a difference there).
NFP release was a fizzer and so while I was long for it, it could only manage 20 pips and I sold a couple and reversed a bit hoping to see a push down but it didn't come and it just sat at the open price for most of the session.
Looks like there was decent selling though.. or just no one buying.. so not sure what this means for next week other than Fridays seem to be a bit of a washout.
I managed a few pips out of the session but ended up being more net-short than I was prior to NFP because the spike up came back and took out my longs at 7595.
Sentiment seems to be turning down still so Aud might fall more.
At the end of the week I am more net-short with my ratio long:short = 19 : 28 and my average long-short 'spread' is still 60 pips.
Trying to figure a plan for next week on how to reduce my long-short spread and manage losses - so here is a picture of what I plan to do in order to reduce the spread and hopefully take some winners :
I guess the 'dream' and plan should be to have average shorts above average longs...
But what a shame I was not aggressive enough (again) in following my instinct. Instead the longs I did take I was quick to close off in the hope price would fall and I could close off some shorts. However price kept rallying and Aud hit .78 in two sessions! Unfortunately this week I was also away on holidays so I was not 100% concentrating on things, but I was watching and I didn't read it all that well.
Here is the profile I'm working with now:
So I started selling over 77 and then more at 78 but price hasn't dropped at all
Two weeks ago I saw sentiment change at highs and was not selling enough so if I can see sentiment fade a bit I will look to sell more this time - or maybe I should keep buying... hmm
Long-term looks like 82 might be the next target if it holds over 78:
So this run up in Aud has nearly killed me, but not quite! Still holding on for silly reasons and while I could just add a couple grand to drop the draw-down it's shown me I need to watch my position sizing more and to cut losers even if it digs into profits (I can't believe I saw the longs but refused to flip my position... newbie mistake but I was on quite the run there!). So now I am reducing shorts at high prices so given my bad timing Aud might fall soon. I hope it falls a lot actually but I am buying into dips 7850 because LT Aud might go over 80 (who knows, unlikely but it could, so I need to be more prepared for it), but it was smacked down at .7995 today so someone decent might be selling (fingers crossed).
I was thinking this method is a bit like a coin toss method and I was thinking in the past as a currency exchange on the street: they just have to buy and sell to who-ever, when-ever - sure they cut into the spreads - but they would often build up large supplies of certain currencies.. so where do they off load that risk too? I don't know but I guess I am trading my micro fx account a little bit like they might..
Another sell-off of sorts, still buying what I can and closing off my old shorts to see if I can get out of this month with a modest gain.
News was dovish on future Aud rate hikes. Hopefully it forms this channel and then drops down into 7850 where I can buy a heap more and level out my net position and have my long-short spread back to something sane.
