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Fat Pitch ES Journal
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Fat Pitch ES Journal

  #1 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Fat Pitch ES Journal

Hi everyone,

This is a joint journal where everyone can post their trades - sim preferred - on Fat Pitch trades.
I'll be posting mine but anyone can add theirs.

You are also welcome post ideas on how to capture them, and how others might have done better.

If you like you can just play "weekend quarterback" if you like, perhaps you see something in someone else's chart that gives the idea how to do better or capture fat-pitches.

So what are fat-pitch trades?

These are the real juicy trades that would have been really rewarding.

You might see something that just sets up great - perfect 50% retracement, double top - whatever your poison.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; April 16th, 2017 at 05:36 PM.
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  #3 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Week 411 - Sell on monday


Here is a sim trade I took in my IB sim account.

I sold the ES at 8:41:47 at 2358.75 on Monday in the RTH session. The very top was 2363.25 at 9:36. So this was the Fat Pitch of the week.

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Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #4 (permalink)
Capt. Johnny Jameson
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aquarian1 View Post
Hi everyone,

This is a joint journal where everyone can post their trades - sim preferred - on Fat Pitch trades.
I'll be posting mine but anyone can add theirs.

You are also welcome post ideas on how to capture them, and how others might have done better.

If you like you can just play "weekend quarterback" if you like, perhaps you see something in someone else's chart that gives the idea how to do better or capture fat-pitches.

So what are fat-pitch trades?

These are the real juicy trades that would have been really rewarding.

You might see something that just sets up great - perfect 50% retracement, double top - whatever your poison.

why sim trades preferred?...just curious

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  #5 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,127 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,137 given, 1,694 received
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Devil Man View Post
why sim trades preferred?...just curious


Good question!

My reason is that ego (not self-confidence) works against traders - all of us.

I wanted everyone - new traders especially - to feel free to post.

Also I wanted people to me able to post things like:
Even though I didn't take this trade, in hindsight, the .... pointed to an entry at....

So people aren't limited to just trades, but can also post insights about things they saw in reviewing the charts.
They aren't limited to trades they took -but also great trades they spotted - explain how they saw them.

--
Back to sim trades, if someone could have had a better entry (or exit) and someone else sees something in the chart they post they are more likely to say, something like:
"I noticed a that the entry could have been better with the shooting star candlestick"
and have less chance of the poster taking it personally - after all it was just a sim trade - so I don't mind you pointing out something I didn't see.

The idea of the thread is for collaborative thinking and taking advantage of the many viewpoints without ownership of the trade. The idea is for us all to help each other with thoughts insights etc.

To give the thread focus I choose fat pitches - really sweet ones where you can/could have knocked it out of the park. This idea has been forefront for me currently and when I saw the $1,500 I thought
"wouldn't that be sweet to do every week?" (or every day).

So even new traders can post - its only sim and they can afford a sim trade.

I didn't want the thread to get bogged down with competitiveness that might come from posting cash trades. Since its about learning and sharing I didn't want:
"well that was only sim - it didn't count"

For finding potential it does count. Even the trade you didn't take but spotted later.

(so if it was a cash trade that's great but rather than say so - just post the trade without specifying -
"Only you and your hairdresser know the truth" -LOL )

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; April 16th, 2017 at 07:53 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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So here's some depth on the Monday trade.

I use a 5 pt stop (on cash trades)

So the trade on Monday would have been stopped out at 2358.75+5=2363.75. This means that not getting stopped out would have almost happened with 2363.25. It's too close. So the trade could be better.

The o/n high was 2359. This means the entry was also too low. By a lot.
Once they get close to the o/n high they almost always run - and that's just what they did they ran the stop above 2359.

The execution was poor. 8:41 is a long time from 9:36. The entry was waaay to early.

So the entry was too early and too low. Certainly room for improvement. The entry should have been at or after the high.

So fellow readers, pull up your favorite chart for Monday morning and slice and dice. Let's weekend quarterback this and find how (what signs) would have led to a better entry.....

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Stop Run

I think your point is valid about the stop run. Would a normal stop run in the ES be 2.5-3 points? Perhaps that could be an entry...????

Obviously the difficult thing will be when it breaks the ON High by 1 tick and then turns down!! What do you do then??? Punt??? LOL


Just food for thought.


Danny

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  #8 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Ddawg View Post
I think your point is valid about the stop run. Would a normal stop run in the ES be 2.5-3 points? Perhaps that could be an entry...????

Obviously the difficult thing will be when it breaks the ON High by 1 tick and then turns down!! What do you do then??? Punt??? LOL


Just food for thought.


Danny

The depth of the stop run-depends upon how "they" build up the orders and the S/R at the level and what "they" have planned for the day. (all this is just my opinion). So o/n is one depth, Yest H/L is another, the end of a mulitday swing yet another. It all 3 converge then the depth can be quite large. If the resistance (multiday) is close to a stop level such as o/n or Yesterday then it can limit (or extend the move).

As to the second question - just touching the o/n high and turning down - "they" do this occasionally - most so in the last 3 weeks. They always keep it mixed up so that we retail are kept off-guard.

The other part is the gameplan. For example, let's say there are a bunch of low stops that they want to grab and lets say they are below 2335 down to 2330 - just to put a number on it - and the range is estimated to be 15.
This means the top will be in the 2330+15 = 2345 area. So if the o/n high was 2334.50 then it could be a touch and go day.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #9 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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building high stops

Hi Devilman,

Here is an example of building the stops - notice 3 successive RTH HOD's at the same level:
2345 area
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This action builds a deep layer of juicy stops above this.

How deep? perhaps to 2353?

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #10 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,127 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,137 given, 1,694 received
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pulled it higher but not much


Today I missed shorting - but this journal is also about fat pitches we see later.
(was -18 pts so a good day IF I was on board the train!)

Today's peak was more "rounded" than I am used to for ES (for a HOD). I saw this peak but thought they would run again higher as they were only a few points above overnight

The o/n high 2346.50 @ 7:11
The RTH 2349.25 @ 09:00

(Danny this is your amount 2.75 to o/n - LOL)

Here is a chart I don't use much but might help for next time (red arrow was made by the indicator and would have been a nice 2nd opportunity to sell at)

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Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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