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Volatility pattern intraday trading in DAX


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Volatility pattern intraday trading in DAX

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  #1 (permalink)
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Resolve is the enlargement of action based on clarity. It is where intention and attention are completely one. In opposition to this sensibility, asserting indirectness over directness fuel confusion and hesitation and keeps us from clarity, also from resolve.
--- Mark Nepo

Hi everyone,

I am an intraday DAX trader/scalper from the Netherlands. I have been trading full time for 9 months now. During this time, I have climbed a steep learning curve and started to show some consistency. Though I have shown to myself that my trading system has an edge in the market, I still struggle to execute my system to a high degree of efficiency to realize the full potential of the system and myself. Sometimes, I knew that there is a valid entry according to my trading plan, but I would be much too hesitating to pull the trigger until the entry timing is missed altogether.

I have slowly come to a conclusion that my subconscious mind still holds a deep suspicion to my trading system so much so that it clutters with my judgement. One of the most effective way to declutter my brain is to write journal/blog to someone who is not trading my system. That is why I have decided to write my trading journals to a forum in addition to my private trading journals.

Before starting trade journal entry, I would have to introduce briefly my trading methodology, which I call volatility pattern intraday trading. I donít want to call it price action trading, because many people equate price action to candle stick pattern. But I do not use candle at all, though I pay attention to price actions in general. Firstly, I would have to lay down some premise of my mental framework on trading:
1) The market is a two-way auction process which auctions price higher to find buyer and auctions lower to find seller. Hence when price in a local equilibrium, the price rotates from high to low and then low to high to bridge buyers and sellers. The volatility that I am trading is a result of this natural rotation in price when it is in an equilibrium
2) Price is liquidity seeking. Price never moves randomly, it constantly searches for and tests liquidity
3) After one auction to one side ends, the auction to the other side of rotational area begins. And the auction usually ends in an auction failure. It is this auction failure opens a window of entry.

My B.R.A.V.E trading methodology is built upon the above three premises. The acronym B.R.A.V.E stands for
1) Bias: By looking at the longer time frame chart to see whether the price is in a state of dis-equilibrium (other people call it trending) or equilibrium. With a little bit of experience, you will be able to get a good sense about the directional bias by glancing over the longer-term chart. The bias is like a prior in the Bayesian framework;
2) Ratio: The harmonistic ratios, or Fibonacci ratios, of the prior swings are important. Here I pay a lot attention to the Fib extensions and projections, but to a lesser extent to the retracement;
3) Area: Basically, the trade location, where a large quantity of stop orders lie;
4) Volume transition: This concept is originally from Order Flow Analytics. It describes perfectly the process of auction failure. Volume transition is when a big bulk of volume was not able to push the current auction any further, and those bigger traders are turning from buyers to sellers, or vice versa;
5) Entry: Once the above 4 elements align, I would put down an order at the HVN of the volume transitional point.

Here I use the harmonic ratio to track the price formation and measure how success are the bulls and bears in achieving their objectives. I never trade those levels outright, but use those levels to form hypothesis. I would enter a position once the hypothesis being tested positive. I have a set of tools to help me to identify whether the volume transition has indeed occurred at the proposed level. One is a nonlinear transform of the cumulative volume at price, and the other one is the volume profile.

A typical trade for me would be like in the attached graph. Firstly, I am looking for a counter trend trade after three shortening thrust to the upside. By measuring the Fib extension from the one before the last swing, I have ended up with an objective of 12226.8 (78.6 extension) as the first proposed trade location for a counter trend scalp. After seeing a big bulk of volume moved in at the proposed level and a sell volume bar (the red bar is sell volume) appeared at the top of the swing, I have pulled the trigger for a short trade.

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  #3 (permalink)
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Here is a losing trade I had today. The mistake I have made is subtle and typical, thus has great replay value, which worth to revisit from time to time.

In this trade, the price has made a second leg to the down side and a clear divergence appeared at the low. Additionally, a buy volume bar (the blue bar) has appeared at the low of the second leg and a big bulk of volume has come in (check the bulging volume profile left to the swing). Everything seems to be aligning and I have pulled the trigger to enter a long trade at 12150. However, there is a untested swing point at 12145 to the left and that naked swing point is too close to my entry. As i have described in the first article of my blog that price is liquidity seeking, the stop orders hidden behind that naked swing point is going to attract the price like a magnet. 2 mins after my entry, the operator has down thrusted the market and tested that naked swing before lifting the price up very quickly stopping me out together with a boat load of other long traders.

Basically, the key take away is always to be mindful about the naked swing point and HVN before entering the market. If the entry is too close those levels, it is better to wait on the sideline until those levels being successfully tested and enter after a test bar (a buy volume bar at that level).

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  #4 (permalink)
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
 
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A perfect entry by a Gartley pattern with the impeccable Fib measurement. The white bar after the red selling volume at the top (the highlighted area) is clearly an upthrust. A firm short.

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  #5 (permalink)
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
 
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It is a tough trade to sit through. DAX, together with other equity indice, suddenly sparks momentum to the upside breaking the previous swing high. The price has paused just in front of the the 127.2 extension of the last down swing. With three sell volume bars at the top and volume building, it seems that the down fall in price is imminent. However, the operator has performed another upthrust for 7 ticks hitting the 261.8 extension of the small prior down swing before finally letting the price to go to the downside.

This type of probe and rotation price behavior is very typical to DAX. Hence worth to log an journal to record this "volatility pattern" play.


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  #6 (permalink)
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This is once again a tough trade in DAX. Well, there are very few trades in DAX is easy. This one worth a special mention because the maneuveur is so typical to DAX that you don't often see it anywhere else.

Firstly this trade occured during lunch time, which is a tough trading period as the liquidity is thin and the move could be quite erratic. The down move started from 12220 handle has sustained for more half an hour already. When it hits the 12192 level, a big volume has hit the market. Looks like the market is ready to and the volume transition is starting. However, after volume accumulated for more than 15 mins, there is no development to the upside. It has subsequently made two additional weak sell bars to the down side with no follow through. Finally a big buy order hit at the 127.2 projection of previous down leg. But that was still not the end, the operator down thrust the market exceeding prior swing low before lifting the market quickly up to finally start a new auction to the upside.

The valid entry for this trade is at the 127.2 extension, or just 1 pt beyond prior swing low to antcipate the down thrust that liquidity area.


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  #7 (permalink)
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
 
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Here is an easy trade in DAX.
Volume built after exceeding prior swing low. The liquidty hidden behind that level has been released and absorbed by the operator (see the volume profile).
Here, there is no Fib measurement in play, but the Dow has hit the 127.2 downside extension and find support there. The sell volume in Dow is transitioning to buy volume. During NY session, the Dow could be used as leading indicator for DAX. An entry 1 pt beyond prior swing low is a valid entry.


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  #8 (permalink)
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shrekchenbin View Post
This is once again a tough trade in DAX. Well, there are very few trades in DAX is easy. This one worth a special mention because the manoeuvre so typical to DAX that you don't often see it anywhere else.

Great posts, Dax rarely gives easy trades, especially on a Friday, but in my EW land I think that also shows a clear 5 wave impulse to end the whole corrective range to the left (or what we have so far.)

Most experienced EW users forget that 5w ends as well as starts.., although not often that cleanly, worth remembering also for non-users.

Thanks for the journal, really good stuff.

Cheers

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  #9 (permalink)
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
 
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Ratfink,
Thanks for mentioning that.
To be honest, I didn't notice the formation to be a clean 5 wave structure at that time.
Like you said, DAX rarely poses itself in a clean structure. It never runs out idea to confuse people.

Cheers


ratfink View Post
Great posts, Dax rarely gives easy trades, especially on a Friday, but in my EW land I think that also shows a clear 5 wave impulse to end the whole corrective range to the left (or what we have so far.)

Most experienced EW users forget that 5w ends as well as starts.., although not often that cleanly, worth remembering also for non-users.

Thanks for the journal, really good stuff.

Cheers


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  #10 (permalink)
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A slow day, but I never run out of trades in DAX as it is such a gold mine for those who know how to trade DAX.

Price has paused just above the prior swing high and the weakness seems to come in. But the market is not yet ready to fall because the operator has the Fib extension of the last down leg in its cross hair. After an upthrust, the price touched 12249 target and slowly grinded lower.

In normal market, a trade like this would work out in no time, but it took more than 8 mins to move decisively to my downside target.


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  #11 (permalink)
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After probably a million years, the final target of the above trade has been hit and there is another trade on the other end.

As you can see the price has hit the full target of the 261.8 extension of the last up leg and just 1 tick away from my entry at the 161.8 extension. Pity...



shrekchenbin View Post
A slow day, but I never run out of trades in DAX as it is such a gold mine for those who know how to trade DAX.

Price has paused just above the prior swing high and the weakness seems to come in. But the market is not yet ready to fall because the operator has the Fib extension of the last down leg in its cross hair. After an upthrust, the price touched 12249 target and slowly grinded lower.

In normal market, a trade like this would work out in no time, but it took more than 8 mins to move decisively to my downside target.



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  #12 (permalink)
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There are quite some clean structural plays in today's morning session. This three drive topping formation trade worth a special mention. Admittingly, this is the toughest trade for me to enter and hold onto. But I have decided to get myself in the trade just to learn.

Firstly, a sell bar appeared just above prior swing high without achieving any Fib extension target. This is clearly a trap for me. And I have put an entry at the 127.2 extension. Order is hit quickly. But after a very shallow dip, the price has resumed climbing higher. It seems that it is about to test the previous day's VPOC and 161.8 extension. At the heat of that moment, the decision is whether to scrap the trade or scale in at a higher price. Out of fear, i have decided to just scrap the trade because the next target is a bit further away for my liking. However that was a bad decision, as the price made the final upthrust to achieve an internal fib extension target and turned down from there. Once the move is done, it is clear that the price has made a three drive topping formation, where the internal fib measurement are nearly exact. Pity that my mind is still too weak to hold on to a good and can't make the courageous when under pressure.


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  #13 (permalink)
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Today is a double distribution day. The key to this day type is to not trade against the thrusts. I got one frustrating losing trade when market is a disequilibrium process due to the massive short squeeze. But losing trades are part of game and we have to accept that.

Once market stablizes and startes to rotate from level to levels, the volatility pattern trading window is open again. Here is a quick scalp. The measurement could not be more clear.

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  #14 (permalink)
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Just around 5 oclock, there is sudden surge of momentum in DAX that it has achieved the measured move target in just three minutes in a market with clear bearish price structure.
It is mainly due to the stop orders hidden behind a series of swing points for a boat load of momentum short sellers. Those stop orders acted like fuels on fire, which propels the market shooting back to the VPOC of the day.

Hence we would have to be ultra careful when there are many prior swing points just behind our desired trade locations.


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  #15 (permalink)
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After a beautiful butterfly pattern, I was tempted to find another butterfly to trade, hence put in a limit order at the 127.2 extension of the a shallow up swing hoping that the level would act as a support.

However, DAX ignored my wishes. It headed straight down to the 161.8 extension and stopped my order out to the tick. The mistake is that i have completely ignored a very important piece of contextual info that the up swing after the butterfly pattern was small proportional to the down swing, hence, it is very likely that the selling pressure is still strong and I shouls watch for the possibility of achieving the measured move target. And the measured move target picked the bottom to the tick because that is what actually happened.


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  #16 (permalink)
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A slow day and the operator is shooting at the 113 extension instead when it is trying to hit the prior swing points.

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  #17 (permalink)
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DAX has moved quite erratically today as it slows down and then suddenly speeds up catching me unguarded.
By today's price action i am still not convinced that a spring is going to develop and this morning's bullish leg is merely a short squeeze. The reason is that after taking out a series of swing highs of yesterday's afternoon session, the buyers have given up and gave away all the ground gained after 9:00 London time.
Let's see whether New York is going to buy the market from here or not.

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  #18 (permalink)
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Here is a beautiful trade I had in Natural Gas by using the technique i have developed in DAX. I have found that the NG moves in the technical patterns that is similar to DAX.

Here the measured move target aligned with the 127.2 primal extension ratio. A positive reaction has confirmed the legitimacy of that level, and my order is in. It took less than 1 minute for my first target to be hit.


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  #19 (permalink)
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A beautiful trade in Copper by applying the volatility pattern principle.
The 127.2 extension has aligned with the 224 extension of the small up swing. I have put down a limit order there and let the market to do the rest of the work.


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  #20 (permalink)
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shrekchenbin View Post
A beautiful trade in Copper by applying the volatility pattern principle.
The 127.2 extension has aligned with the 224 extension of the small up swing. I have put down a limit order there and let the market to do the rest of the work.


Obviously this one is not on the live account, but do you normally trade HG on your live account?

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  #21 (permalink)
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Thank you for pointing that out.

Indeed I am still in the phase of trying things out in instruments other than FDAX. I am going to make demo trades with live data for another month. If the result would be consistently positive by then, I am going to trade the Copper and Natural Gas live starting with just 1 or 2 contracts in it.

So far I just loved the technical formations and price behaviors in Copper. It moves like the DAX, but noticably slower. NG is also great. Though it has quirky price actions from time to time. Just don't trade the pre-open session of NG.


xiaosi View Post
Obviously this one is not on the live account, but do you normally trade HG on your live account?


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  #22 (permalink)
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Today the DAX is very obviously in a bullish run. The most effective strategy for this type of market is 1) scalp the successive higher peaks; 2) get in on the long side by trading the pullbacks. I had a couple of frustrating losing trades in the deep pullback started from 9:12 to 9:27.

On the way down, there are big buying ticks printed in the footprint chart and I have prepared myself a plan to trade the scenario of a shallow pullback by using extensions of prior up swings. But the pullback is so much deeper than i thought that it blew through my stops.
Finally, it has reversed to the upside right in front of the 78.6% retracement of the whole up swing. This is a case showing that the market could do anything at any time. Just prepare for the most effective action at that time and let the probability to play out itself. In hindsight, the most effective action is to trade the Fib retracement which gives at least a scalp. While the fib projection of the down leg is not the most appropriate tool, as the down swing is actually a part of the correction, not impulse.

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  #23 (permalink)
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After several days off trading due to my new born daughter, I am finally able to be back at my trading desk.

What is unusual about today's price action is the rising wedge that didn't result in a downside break as in 90% of the instances. What should happen but didn't happen suggested the presence of buy interest. As a result, it has hit the 100% projection of the up leg starting from the low of the day.


Ps: During the past several days, I was reading Rande Howell's book on emotion regulation. It was just fantastic! There is piece about character achetypes in trading and how to develop them. I suggest everyone to take a look at that and try to integrate the archetypes into your trading practices. You will be amazed by the result.


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After several days off trading due to my new born daughter

CONGRATULATIONS!!

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  #25 (permalink)
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Congratulations!!!

Btw, is your name Chen Bin, chinese?

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Congratulations!!!

Btw, is your name Chen Bin, chinese?

Yes, I am Chinese. So are you?
Glad to meet you here.

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  #27 (permalink)
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Today DAX didn't generate the upside follow through many would expect. It is simply because Macron's win has been fully priced in during Friday's NY afternoon session. I would not be surprised if DAX would like to have a deep retracement to test the 12675 key reversal level before shooting higher. At this moment, DAX could be in anaccumulationt phase building volume and cause to move higher. Hence the sensible strategy for today is to buy pullbacks.

However, buying pullback is quite difficult in DAX and today is no different. Several trading ranges have been made and subsequently broken to the downside.


In this trade, the 127.2 extension is not respected, and my entry at the 161.8 extension has been missed by just 1 point. Maybe i should relax my entry a bit so that my perfectionist tendency do not stand in the way of my trading.

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shrekchenbin View Post
Yes, I am Chinese. So are you?
Glad to meet you here.

Good to see 同胞 here.

Keep up the good work!

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  #29 (permalink)
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The difficult of buying pullbacks in DAX is nicely illustrated in this example.
DAX seldom respects the 61.8 retracement level. Instead it usually retrace more than 100% of the upswing. After absorbing all stop orders at the low, the operator would finally lift the price higher.

In this case, after retracing 100% of the upswing, it has paused at the prior swing low for a while before down thrusting the support at 12712.5 (see the green dash line) for a couple of ticks. It is easy to see that the stop run from the intraday volume profile chart that the penetration below the support does not carry much volume with it.

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  #30 (permalink)
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A big bearish bat pattern out of the NY Open.
Let's see how it develops from here.

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  #31 (permalink)
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FDAX is as difficult to trade as in every other NY session.
Price has lifted substantially in just a few minutes and finally find reaction from 161.8 extension.
The operator has upthrusted the initial top after the sellers moved in at 127.2. The upthrust has hence formed a divergence in the volume strength meter.
When trading against such a strong move, the only reliable strategy is to trade the divergence in the strength of the pushing volume. I am not able to consistently pick the final reversal by reading either the volume profile or footprint chart.

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  #32 (permalink)
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The setup I like in today's session is the continuation pattern on the way down after it has achieved the top side target.
After the continuation pattern, DAX has achieved the measured move hitting the session VWAP.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Have you stopped trading? What are the indicators you are using on your charts?

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