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Volatility pattern intraday trading in DAX


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Volatility pattern intraday trading in DAX

  #21 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Thank you for pointing that out.

Indeed I am still in the phase of trying things out in instruments other than FDAX. I am going to make demo trades with live data for another month. If the result would be consistently positive by then, I am going to trade the Copper and Natural Gas live starting with just 1 or 2 contracts in it.

So far I just loved the technical formations and price behaviors in Copper. It moves like the DAX, but noticably slower. NG is also great. Though it has quirky price actions from time to time. Just don't trade the pre-open session of NG.


xiaosi View Post
Obviously this one is not on the live account, but do you normally trade HG on your live account?


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  #22 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Today the DAX is very obviously in a bullish run. The most effective strategy for this type of market is 1) scalp the successive higher peaks; 2) get in on the long side by trading the pullbacks. I had a couple of frustrating losing trades in the deep pullback started from 9:12 to 9:27.

On the way down, there are big buying ticks printed in the footprint chart and I have prepared myself a plan to trade the scenario of a shallow pullback by using extensions of prior up swings. But the pullback is so much deeper than i thought that it blew through my stops.
Finally, it has reversed to the upside right in front of the 78.6% retracement of the whole up swing. This is a case showing that the market could do anything at any time. Just prepare for the most effective action at that time and let the probability to play out itself. In hindsight, the most effective action is to trade the Fib retracement which gives at least a scalp. While the fib projection of the down leg is not the most appropriate tool, as the down swing is actually a part of the correction, not impulse.

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  #23 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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After several days off trading due to my new born daughter, I am finally able to be back at my trading desk.

What is unusual about today's price action is the rising wedge that didn't result in a downside break as in 90% of the instances. What should happen but didn't happen suggested the presence of buy interest. As a result, it has hit the 100% projection of the up leg starting from the low of the day.


Ps: During the past several days, I was reading Rande Howell's book on emotion regulation. It was just fantastic! There is piece about character achetypes in trading and how to develop them. I suggest everyone to take a look at that and try to integrate the archetypes into your trading practices. You will be amazed by the result.


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  #24 (permalink)
 WOW CO 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
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shrekchenbin View Post
After several days off trading due to my new born daughter

CONGRATULATIONS!!

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  #25 (permalink)
 wshi88 
Santa Barbara, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Congratulations!!!

Btw, is your name Chen Bin, chinese?

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  #26 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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wshi88 View Post
Congratulations!!!

Btw, is your name Chen Bin, chinese?

Yes, I am Chinese. So are you?
Glad to meet you here.

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  #27 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Today DAX didn't generate the upside follow through many would expect. It is simply because Macron's win has been fully priced in during Friday's NY afternoon session. I would not be surprised if DAX would like to have a deep retracement to test the 12675 key reversal level before shooting higher. At this moment, DAX could be in anaccumulationt phase building volume and cause to move higher. Hence the sensible strategy for today is to buy pullbacks.

However, buying pullback is quite difficult in DAX and today is no different. Several trading ranges have been made and subsequently broken to the downside.


In this trade, the 127.2 extension is not respected, and my entry at the 161.8 extension has been missed by just 1 point. Maybe i should relax my entry a bit so that my perfectionist tendency do not stand in the way of my trading.

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  #28 (permalink)
 wshi88 
Santa Barbara, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
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shrekchenbin View Post
Yes, I am Chinese. So are you?
Glad to meet you here.

Good to see 同胞 here.

Keep up the good work!

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  #29 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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The difficult of buying pullbacks in DAX is nicely illustrated in this example.
DAX seldom respects the 61.8 retracement level. Instead it usually retrace more than 100% of the upswing. After absorbing all stop orders at the low, the operator would finally lift the price higher.

In this case, after retracing 100% of the upswing, it has paused at the prior swing low for a while before down thrusting the support at 12712.5 (see the green dash line) for a couple of ticks. It is easy to see that the stop run from the intraday volume profile chart that the penetration below the support does not carry much volume with it.

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  #30 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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A big bearish bat pattern out of the NY Open.
Let's see how it develops from here.

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Last Updated on November 3, 2018


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