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Volatility pattern intraday trading in DAX


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Volatility pattern intraday trading in DAX

  #11 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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After probably a million years, the final target of the above trade has been hit and there is another trade on the other end.

As you can see the price has hit the full target of the 261.8 extension of the last up leg and just 1 tick away from my entry at the 161.8 extension. Pity...



shrekchenbin View Post
A slow day, but I never run out of trades in DAX as it is such a gold mine for those who know how to trade DAX.

Price has paused just above the prior swing high and the weakness seems to come in. But the market is not yet ready to fall because the operator has the Fib extension of the last down leg in its cross hair. After an upthrust, the price touched 12249 target and slowly grinded lower.

In normal market, a trade like this would work out in no time, but it took more than 8 mins to move decisively to my downside target.



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  #12 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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There are quite some clean structural plays in today's morning session. This three drive topping formation trade worth a special mention. Admittingly, this is the toughest trade for me to enter and hold onto. But I have decided to get myself in the trade just to learn.

Firstly, a sell bar appeared just above prior swing high without achieving any Fib extension target. This is clearly a trap for me. And I have put an entry at the 127.2 extension. Order is hit quickly. But after a very shallow dip, the price has resumed climbing higher. It seems that it is about to test the previous day's VPOC and 161.8 extension. At the heat of that moment, the decision is whether to scrap the trade or scale in at a higher price. Out of fear, i have decided to just scrap the trade because the next target is a bit further away for my liking. However that was a bad decision, as the price made the final upthrust to achieve an internal fib extension target and turned down from there. Once the move is done, it is clear that the price has made a three drive topping formation, where the internal fib measurement are nearly exact. Pity that my mind is still too weak to hold on to a good and can't make the courageous when under pressure.


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  #13 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Today is a double distribution day. The key to this day type is to not trade against the thrusts. I got one frustrating losing trade when market is a disequilibrium process due to the massive short squeeze. But losing trades are part of game and we have to accept that.

Once market stablizes and startes to rotate from level to levels, the volatility pattern trading window is open again. Here is a quick scalp. The measurement could not be more clear.

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  #14 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Just around 5 oclock, there is sudden surge of momentum in DAX that it has achieved the measured move target in just three minutes in a market with clear bearish price structure.
It is mainly due to the stop orders hidden behind a series of swing points for a boat load of momentum short sellers. Those stop orders acted like fuels on fire, which propels the market shooting back to the VPOC of the day.

Hence we would have to be ultra careful when there are many prior swing points just behind our desired trade locations.


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  #15 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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After a beautiful butterfly pattern, I was tempted to find another butterfly to trade, hence put in a limit order at the 127.2 extension of the a shallow up swing hoping that the level would act as a support.

However, DAX ignored my wishes. It headed straight down to the 161.8 extension and stopped my order out to the tick. The mistake is that i have completely ignored a very important piece of contextual info that the up swing after the butterfly pattern was small proportional to the down swing, hence, it is very likely that the selling pressure is still strong and I shouls watch for the possibility of achieving the measured move target. And the measured move target picked the bottom to the tick because that is what actually happened.


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  #16 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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A slow day and the operator is shooting at the 113 extension instead when it is trying to hit the prior swing points.

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  #17 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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DAX has moved quite erratically today as it slows down and then suddenly speeds up catching me unguarded.
By today's price action i am still not convinced that a spring is going to develop and this morning's bullish leg is merely a short squeeze. The reason is that after taking out a series of swing highs of yesterday's afternoon session, the buyers have given up and gave away all the ground gained after 9:00 London time.
Let's see whether New York is going to buy the market from here or not.

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  #18 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Here is a beautiful trade I had in Natural Gas by using the technique i have developed in DAX. I have found that the NG moves in the technical patterns that is similar to DAX.

Here the measured move target aligned with the 127.2 primal extension ratio. A positive reaction has confirmed the legitimacy of that level, and my order is in. It took less than 1 minute for my first target to be hit.


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  #19 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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A beautiful trade in Copper by applying the volatility pattern principle.
The 127.2 extension has aligned with the 224 extension of the small up swing. I have put down a limit order there and let the market to do the rest of the work.


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  #20 (permalink)
 
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 xiaosi 
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
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shrekchenbin View Post
A beautiful trade in Copper by applying the volatility pattern principle.
The 127.2 extension has aligned with the 224 extension of the small up swing. I have put down a limit order there and let the market to do the rest of the work.


Obviously this one is not on the live account, but do you normally trade HG on your live account?

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