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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)


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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)

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  #1 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
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[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3G9qIPQkvMowZGWw1qM7ZQ[/yt]

I trade US Treasury Bond futures (ZB) every day for the first two hours of the session using a TopStepTrader combine account. As part of the FIO Video Journal challenge I will be uploading the entirety of every trading session for the month of April. You will be able to see every indicator I see, every entry I make, hear everything I hear, and even see my face as I work my way towards achieving profitability.

I named this thread "Watching Paint Dry" because many traders believe that watching the Z's trade is boring. However, it is my hope that this journal will encourage more retail traders to try trading the bonds. In my opinion ZB offers the best opportunity for beginning retail traders to obtain an edge. Watching the constant battle in the order flow is highly engaging, and I think you'll find it more exciting that you thought. The treasury market also features some of the best traders to learn from, and you'll get to see some of that as well. In particular you'll be able to hear my interactions with the other members of GPI Trading group who have given me permission to include them in my recordings.

I will make the videos public at the end of the trading day. I will still be posting my daily levels and hypotheses in my Elite Journal so that Elite members can still have the benefit of seeing my trading plan at the start of the session.

On the weekends I will be posting videos with advice for programming in Ninjascript. I'll be showing some common pitfalls I've found, as well as any requests from viewers. So if there's an indicator or strategy you'd like to see made let me know.

If you would like to chat with me directly, you can join the small discord room I have set up:
https://futures.io/*********************8XemVjc

Best of:
These are videos that if you're watching these videos later for practice are good for looking at different market conditions. These aren't always days that I did well on, but there are good setups in them.

Trend days:

Possibly the wildest day we'll ever see.
Slow days:

Days I did well:
Days I did terribly:

Movement in the spreads:

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SpeculatorSeth
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A quick tutorial on using the Visual Studio debugger to debug Ninjascript that I recorded last weekend in preparation for the video challenge.


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TWDsje View Post
A quick tutorial on using the Visual Studio debugger to debug Ninjascript that I recorded last weekend in preparation for the video challenge.


Nicely done, but one note - the uploaded resolution is too low to see the screen detail. If you still have the source, try re-uploading and re-encoding with a higher bitrate.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Yeah things get a little blurry when you try to resize it. I'll upload it next time in full 1440p. If it's still an issue we can just make the text bigger. I'll post a little workspace walk-through tomorrow to make sure I have it all sorted out.

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Legendary no drama Llama
Reading UK
 
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TWDsje View Post
[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3G9qIPQkvMowZGWw1qM7ZQ[/yt]

I trade US Treasury Bond futures (ZB) every day for the first two hours of the session using a TopStepTrader combine account. As part of the FIO Video Journal challenge I will be uploading the entirety of every trading session for the month of April. You will be able to see every indicator I see, every entry I make, hear everything I hear, and even see my face as I work my way towards achieving profitability.

I named this thread "Watching Paint Dry" because many traders believe that watching the Z's trade is boring. However, it is my hope that this journal will encourage more retail traders to try trading the bonds. In my opinion ZB offers the best opportunity for beginning retail traders to obtain an edge. Watching the constant battle in the order flow is highly engaging, and I think you'll find it more exciting that you thought. The treasury market also features some of the best traders to learn from, and you'll get to see some of that as well. In particular you'll be able to hear my interactions with the other members of GPI Trading group who have given me permission to include them in my recordings.

I will make the videos public at the end of the trading day. I will still be posting my daily levels and hypotheses in my Elite Journal so that Elite members can still have the benefit of seeing my trading plan at the start of the session.

On the weekends I will be posting videos with advice for programming in Ninjascript. I'll be showing some common pitfalls I've found, as well as any requests from viewers. So if there's an indicator or strategy you'd like to see made let me know.

If you would like to chat with me directly, you can join the small discord room I have set up:
*********************8XemVjc

Awesome. I'm looking forward to your journal and seeing how you tackle the Z's. Good luck with the video challenge.

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  #7 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
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Let me know if that's easier to see. You should be able to see it in 1440p now.

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SpeculatorSeth
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What a perfect day to start. Very clear signals in the order flow, nice clean move. A perfect example of when my trading signals work. A shame I can only trade the first two hours because there was quite a move after I left too. I had a few issues with my software before I started recording, but I think we have most of that worked out for now. I need to check my noise gate settings though. Sometimes it cuts me off too early.


Skip to 48:00, that's my favorite part.

Also shout out to Peter Davis for making the RapidTrader Pro Beta available to everyone today. I'm loving where it is going. I think using RapidTrader pro for execution, and NinjaTrader 8 for charting will be perfect for me.

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TWDsje View Post
[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3G9qIPQkvMowZGWw1qM7ZQ[/yt]

So if there's an indicator or strategy you'd like to see made let me know.

*********************8XemVjc

Hi TWDsje!

My programming skills are not at the level where I could program what I need from scratch. However, if I could get my hands on the code for a simple strategy, I could modify it to incorporate a "BarClose" function (this would place an order on the close of the current bar).

Ideally, if I could get the code for a strategy similar to ChartTrader, this would be great!

Is this what you had in mind with your offer?

Thanks.

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  #10 (permalink)
Europe
 
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TWDsje View Post
What a perfect day to start. Very clear signals in the order flow, nice clean move. A perfect example of when my trading signals work. A shame I can only trade the first two hours because there was quite a move after I left too. I had a few issues with my software before I started recording, but I think we have most of that worked out for now. I need to check my noise gate settings though. Sometimes it cuts me off too early.

Also shout out to Peter Davis for making the RapidTrader Pro Beta available to everyone today. I'm loving where it is going. I think using RapidTrader pro for execution, and NinjaTrader 8 for charting will be perfect for me.

Good stuff Seth, thanks for sharing!

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SpeculatorSeth
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A bit of a mixed day where I had a good trade to start, but then couldn't get out of my way. A good example of the type of mistakes I make. There were just so many trades that I shouldn't have made. It's hard to post a video like this, but I think this is a good opportunity. So feel free to rip me to shreds on this one.


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SpeculatorSeth
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Looks like I screwed up today's recording. You can't see the screen at all because I messed up the scenes. I was able to get 4 ticks out of slow trading. Pretty happy as I've had trouble in slow areas before.

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SpeculatorSeth
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Caught a big winner to the downside today. Overall my execution wasn't that great, but I read the signals well. I started to see lots of confirmation, and doubled up on the trade.


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SpeculatorSeth
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I had another good winner today, but I also had some embarrassing mistakes.


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La Serena - Chile
 
 
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Hi TWDsje, good video journal.. amazing actually. I really appreciate the effort you put on this. One question, who is the man you talk with? Your mentor?

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SpeculatorSeth
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DjRonin View Post
Hi TWDsje, good video journal.. amazing actually. I really appreciate the effort you put on this. One question, who is the man you talk with? Your mentor?

The people you hear me speaking with are the members of GPI Trading Group

The one you hear the most is probably John Bottomly, and he has certainly helped mentor me. I used to be consistently losing every day before I started talking to him. Right now I come out about even. It's very different from what I've heard about your typical trading room, and I highly recommend it.


mluka View Post
Hi TWDsje!

My programming skills are not at the level where I could program what I need from scratch. However, if I could get my hands on the code for a simple strategy, I could modify it to incorporate a "BarClose" function (this would place an order on the close of the current bar).

Ideally, if I could get the code for a strategy similar to ChartTrader, this would be great!

Is this what you had in mind with your offer?

Thanks.

So I understand that people generally will want to keep a strategy to themselves. So for my programming videos I'm definitely trying to highlight things that people should be able to take and adapt. Solve the technical hurdles per say. So if you can go into a more general idea of what you need to accomplish I could take a look.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Today was a slower moving market, but a clear trend helped me pull out a great profit today. I feel that I was much more disciplined today, and I'm really happy with my results.


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awesome video buddy!

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Montréal, Canada
 
 
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TWDsje View Post

So I understand that people generally will want to keep a strategy to themselves. So for my programming videos I'm definitely trying to highlight things that people should be able to take and adapt. Solve the technical hurdles per say. So if you can go into a more general idea of what you need to accomplish I could take a look.

Hi Seth. Thanks for the response.

I meant "strategy", as in "ATM Strategy" in the sense that NinjaTrader uses it: a tool to preset order quantity, stop level(s), target level(s), etc. Not in the sense of "trading strategy" such as, for example, "a crossover of a slow EMA with a fast EMA", etc.

What I'm looking for is the same thing as NinjaTrader's ChartTrader with one additional function: the ability to enter into a position on the close of a bar (enter long if the bar closes UP, for instance). I know that ChartTrader's source code is not available. I'm pretty sure that if I had the code for something similar, I could figure out how to add this additional function to it. That's all.

Thanks.

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SpeculatorSeth
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Another unexpected good trading day. I took several good scalps on the level break trades. As good as it was I could have made even more if I hadn't stopped out on one of the earlier trades.

Pay particular attention for buyers absorbing contracts near the highs. I've found a lot of traders get fooled by this kind of action thinking it shows weakness. It's a great indication that the move will continue.



Starting to get a lot of questions so feel free to PM me or comment on the videos. I'll try to answer them in a video at a later date.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Video is late today because the video took almost all day to upload. I bet Comcast isn't happy that I'm uploading so much every day lol.


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TWDsje View Post
Video is late today because the video took almost all day to upload. I bet Comcast isn't happy that I'm uploading so much every day lol.


How big is the file? Maybe you aren't using the right encoding settings.

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SpeculatorSeth
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Big Mike View Post
How big is the file? Maybe you aren't using the right encoding settings.

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Files are about 4 gigs or so? I didn't change anything. I think I'm just getting throttled. If it happens again today I'll have to call the ISP. Hopefully when I move we'll find a place with fiber. Keep your fingers crossed.

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SpeculatorSeth
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Not sure what the deal was yesterday, but today's uploaded just fine.

Today I made a huge mistake. It's really embarrassing to post these, but I think it's important to point out that I'm still learning. I had one good trade, and I got a signal for continuation so I put another contract on. It immediately went against me and gaped up twice. At that point I thought it was going to come back down so I waited it out. If I had stopped where I should then I may have gotten a better short position at the top. I could have had a big winner today, but instead I took a small 3 tick loss.

So use this video as an example of what not to do:


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Super slow trading for the start of the day. Had a few ok trades, had a few bad ones. Came out even for the most part. This kind of action can kill me so I'm happy I got out ok. Looks like we really fell after my time window expired.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Another poor day. This is the third big down day in the past week, and I feel that this is more than a drawdown. Add to this that after a month or two I'm basically flat I feel I need to make some adjustments. I feel like I might be reverting to some old bad habits. Here's what I concluded after analyzing things a bit.

I'm doing ok on my entries for winning trades. It usually doesn't tick back on me more than two ticks. In cases where I gave it more room it didn't benefit me.

I tend to have bad losing streaks.

Past few days I picked poor price risk entries that were 4-5 ticks of risk.

In cases where I felt confident and added on another contract I ended up taking losses. It seems like the second contract just makes me late.

I may be more consistent by taking shorter targets.

Overall I have too many trades per day.

The biggest metric I need to improve is the win rate. I'll be paying closer attention to which signals I take to find out which ones are working, and which ones aren't.




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prague
 
 
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TWDsje View Post
Another poor day. This is the third big down day in the past week, and I feel that this is more than a drawdown. Add to this that after a month or two I'm basically flat I feel I need to make some adjustments. I feel like I might be reverting to some old bad habits. Here's what I concluded after analyzing things a bit.

I'm doing ok on my entries for winning trades. It usually doesn't tick back on me more than two ticks. In cases where I gave it more room it didn't benefit me.

I tend to have bad losing streaks.

Past few days I picked poor price risk entries that were 4-5 ticks of risk.

In cases where I felt confident and added on another contract I ended up taking losses. It seems like the second contract just makes me late.

I may be more consistent by taking shorter targets.

Overall I have too many trades per day.

The biggest metric I need to improve is the win rate. I'll be paying closer attention to which signals I take to find out which ones are working, and which ones aren't.




dont worry, you are on a good path. keep focused.

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  #28 (permalink)
Sydney+Australia
 
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Hi TWDsje,

I'm a regular visitor of your journal. I am not an expert here but what I've noticed is after you've entered the market market moves few ticks in your direction. It also seems that you are adding second lot with the expectation that market will break out. I use to do it too and 90% of the time It ends up a loosing trade. Wouldn't it be better to let it break first and enter on pull back ?

Based on the above why don't you try a little bit opposite of what you are doing right now. Try to make an entry with 2 lots as your initial position and then set the target order with 2 ticks away from your initial entry with 1 lot. That way you will preserve your profit of 2 ticks on one lot and let the other one run.

Keep up good work. I am watching your videos

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  #29 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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tr8d3r View Post
Hi TWDsje,

I'm a regular visitor of your journal. I am not an expert here but what I've noticed is after you've entered the market market moves few ticks in your direction. It also seems that you are adding second lot with the expectation that market will break out. I use to do it too and 90% of the time It ends up a loosing trade. Wouldn't it be better to let it break first and enter on pull back ?

Based on the above why don't you try a little bit opposite of what you are doing right now. Try to make an entry with 2 lots as your initial position and then set the target order with 2 ticks away from your initial entry with 1 lot. That way you will preserve your profit of 2 ticks on one lot and let the other one run.

Keep up good work. I am watching your videos

Thanks for watching. I'm definitely not going to be loading up the way I was before. It seems like having two entries just makes me late. I started doing it because it really helped me on some strong moves, but I think I started doing it too often. It doesn't help that I seem to have a tendency to join impulsive moves lately, and so I just end up getting trapped. I think when I'm trading well two contracts like that would be a good idea, and would still fit my risk parameters. Right now though I'm planning on just going back to 1 lot until I've built back some confidence.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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I was hoping to have a good day to end the streak and save my account. I tried to be extra cautious, and I think that cost me in a few instances today. I don't think I hit the drawdown limit yet, but I'm awfully close.

I'll probably have to restart the combine. It sucks, but in the end maybe it's a good thing. I've received so many messages with advice the past few days. Recording everything for the world to see has really turned out to be helpful.

Maybe we'll have a final YOLO on that account before I have to reset it.


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SpeculatorSeth
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So it turned out I was literally $100 off from the drawdown limit. It's just not possible to trade effectively under such circumstances. I tested their risk control system limits a bit. It seems like it doesn't test the drawdown limit on an intraday basis. At least it doesn't stop you trading, it only does that if you hit the daily limit.

So because of that I'm not going to post a video for today. We will continue when I have a fresh account and a fresh view. OneUp Trader is supposed to be available in April, so we'll see if that happens next week.

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  #32 (permalink)
Europe
 
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TWDsje View Post
We will continue when I have a fresh account and a fresh view. OneUp Trader is supposed to be available in April, so we'll see if that happens next week.

Looking forward to seeing more videos from you. Keep it up, you are on the right track!

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Ok we're back with a new account. I was looking for things to fill the gap down, and I was looking for a full point. Instead the market was slow. I was able to pull 3 ticks out, and it finally moved higher after I had to head in for work.

Pay attention to the cumulative delta difference column on my chart. When we came down off the first touch of 08 there was a lot of selling only for us to head higher. Such a delta divergence indicates trapped traders, and this indicator was giving me extreme readings today.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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I had an issue with the recording today so the first part of the recording is missing. Choppy trading with several decent scalps running away without filling me. Took 3 ticks out.


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  #35 (permalink)
Montréal, Canada
 
 
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TWDsje View Post
Video is late today because the video took almost all day to upload.

Hi Jeff.

Have you considered editing the videos?

Thanks.

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  #36 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
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mluka View Post
Hi Jeff.

Have you considered editing the videos?

Thanks.

I certainly have, but I simply don't have the time every day to do the kind of editing that would be necessary. After trading I immediately head to work. Plus I've discovered as people talk to me that they like the fact that they can see literally the entire session. Sure people usually don't watch the whole session. They just remember what the day was like and fast forward to the part they remember to see what I was doing.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Pretty wild trading this morning with several swings. Pulled 8 ticks out at the end. I've been taking shorter targets, and that seems to be helping consistency. I'm up 3 days in a row so yay.


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  #38 (permalink)
Stavanger, Norway
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Ninjabroker, Continuum
Trading: ES, CL, Bonds
 
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Hey Seth!

I just stumbled into here as im a paint-drying-watcher myself! Only managed to see the first vid but a huge kudos on putting these out, i think its bold and awesome stuff so thank you for taking the challenge

We look at very similar stuff(Jigsaw guy myself) and i was wondering how long youve been trading?

Also, have you considered trading ZF or ZN instead of ZB? The huge ticksize limits ones style if you dont have a huge account to back it and i think trading 1 lot severely hinders the learning curve. You could instead allow yourself to trade 4 ZF opening up for adding on minor ticks against you if you still have the conviction of the trade to improve your average and then possibly scaling down once you feel uncertain about further moves. Allowing yourself to massage a thick market like the bonds should result in better averages and more minor wins as psychologically i find it easier to take "some off" instead of having to rely on a surgically precise all in all out style. And boy can those minor wins help out on the bottom line when those "bigger" trades dont work out..

ZF trades a little differently when looking at the DOM tho, often moving opposite of whats aggressive - so price goes up when sellers are hammering the bid and vice versa - my theory being its a hedging tool for bigger traders who scale in and out on ZB and ZN.

"Hey! I've got 10 fresh apples to sell, any hungry buyers out here today?!" "Maybe! Just let me check my moving average and RSI!"
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  #39 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Today was a lesson in knowing when to quit. I wasn't too focused from the start, but I was able to get one ok winner. As I went on I started making more mistakes and ended the day -8 erasing what I made yesterday.


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  #40 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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So long story short I ended up flat on the day. Lots of good lessons in this trading session. Also some good discussion in the Discord channel.


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  #41 (permalink)
Chicago USA
 
 
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this market has been in the same sideways pattern for weeks even with the volatility sigh makes my head hurt

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  #42 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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I somehow managed to have a day with one trade and a 15 tick profit. I held through the news because I felt like I had some breathing room and it worked out for me. A bit of luck, but I'm happy that I was patient on a day that could have really chopped me up.




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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Worst stop ever. I didn't realize I had my stop put at the 50% retracement of the upmove. I got stopped out and took +6 ticks missing out on an awesome 16+ tick winner. So disappointed.





Also, don't forget to vote for my journal in the journal challenge:

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  #44 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Fun action today with lots of swings the morning before FOMC. Ended the day down two ticks.





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  #45 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Missed the initial move, and was unable to find my rhythm. Nothing too dramatic though. Total profit: -4 ticks.


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  #46 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
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Nonfarms resulted in some great swings. Had a few false starts, but ended with a good profit that takes my account back to its highs. Total Profit: 9 ticks


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  #47 (permalink)
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader TT
Broker: Amp/CQG/TT, Optimus, ADM
Trading: Mainly CL. Spread researcher currently
 
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Im just starting to look at thicker products.. and brushing up my NoBS trading stuff.. one suggestion...

Maybe if could post when your entry/exit was and at what times that might help people scanning it through

So like
Entry at X 1 hr 20 min in

Something like that

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  #48 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Don't watch today's video. I do really poorly, and it is embarrassing. I knew what was going on and I still tried fading. I was just not in my right mind. In the future I need to identify this sooner and quit for the day. I also think this and some of my other bad trades are due to permafading so I'll be looking for ways to combat that.


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  #49 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Simplified things a little and changed my workspace. Bad day to do it though as action was super slow.


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  #50 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Another tight range day. I still took too many trades, but I learned a lot today about the right spots to enter in ranges. Finally got a good winner at the end. I feel like I made some progress today. Ended the day +1 tick.


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  #51 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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I still feel a little overly cautious, but I still took a profit home today. Crazy action. Really glad I have this on video now as it will be good to refer back to.


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  #52 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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No video today. Had some issues with the Windows 10 update, and had to reinstall :/

I've been saying I like the range between 150-153, so I'm glad to see the market action today despite not being able to trade it.

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  #53 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Slow trading, but I've been improving and came out today with 5 ticks.



I had to reinstall my computer over the weekend so I've made a few changes. Let me know if there's any issues with the video.

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  #54 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Crazy day! I'm not sure what I was thinking through the first part of the session. Several good longs that I cut short. I started shorting it perhaps out of frustration. Finally I was able to see some good signals and made most of it back. Ended the day -4 ticks. I'll be studying this one a lot.


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  #55 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Crazy action, but lots of missed opportunities for me. I missed many of the long setups I wanted, and for some reason keep trying to take fade trades. On a strong trend like this I should never be counter trading it. I know we are in that trend, but I forget the rule and still fade it. I need to insert something into my process to trigger my mind's voice before I take those trades so I'll consider the context.


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  #56 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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I believe that right now I'm having some issues with impulsivity. I think I have some good signals and rules, but I often don't realize my trades contradict them. So what I am trying to do now is develop a routine to help me think these things through before I click. I'm going say stuff out loud on the video and point at things on the screen to help activate my mind's eye and voice. Here's what I'm going to start with. Suggestions would be appreciated.

Breathe in and out once
State you are considering a trade
Identify risk and reward and point them out on the screen
Identify daily and local trend
Identify daily and local volatility
Are we in a chop zone or range?
Describe signal I am looking for

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  #57 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Mumbai, India
 
Experience: Advanced
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Deja vu! Here are some parallel thoughts I just posted:


https://futures.io/trading-journals/42096-winning-trading-beyond-9.html#post641128

The above post goes into a lot of detail - its nice to plan, but its more important not to choke on decision making and FLOW when trading.


Hope it will be helpful.


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Market Wizard
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What is knowing yourself?

It is becoming a person who is majority of an OBSERVER, and who knows that HE is not the thoughts that run through his mind, and once there is an experience of this SEPARATION then the automatic stream of thoughts CEASES, and you become more powerful because you actually realize YOU ARE IN CONTROL!

Once there is sufficient practice on these lines, the matter has actually been decided even before you take the first trade. Not the trade location, not the what-if analysis, because these are static and subject to change AND there is a very real danger of we imposing our expectations on the market and 'concluding' or 'feeling' that we know what the market MAY do next but really, the best approach is within ourselves, knowing that we are still knowing ourselves while engaging with the market in the now.


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  #59 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Trying to develop some new habits to get a hold of my impulsivity. Ended the day flat.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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It's been a frustrating few days. Before I felt that I just needed to eliminate mistakes, and I would move from breaking even to profitable. However, after this string of bad days I'm starting to feel like I'm just clicking randomly. Even when I was doing well at not overtrading I was running into issues. My win percentage is just not high enough. When I'm doing well I'm more like 40%, and I really need to get that over 50%. So it's clear that I need to make more significant adjustments to my trading plan.

I'm going to stop the combine account for now and move back to sim. I'm going to spend the next week programming, backtesting, and reading new material. Some of that time will be used to make some programming videos I've been putting off.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Today I worked on NOB spread and cumulative delta indicators. I'll be doing some studies to make sure I understand how to use them correctly. Hopefully this should lead me to some trades that will compliment what I see in the DOM. I'll post the indicators once I am confident there's no serious issues with them.



I also had a TST coaching call with Danny Hodgman today. He pointed out that my average profit is still twice my average loss, and we discussed some ways to help avoid those bad loss days. Part of that is avoiding the first little bit of trading until a trend is firmly established, and staying out if it's just a choppy day. He challenged me to pick a time during the session after the first bit of trading to make a trade on the market direction. At the end of the session I'll analyze the profit/risk I would make on that one trade if I had stayed in the entire time.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Today I uploaded my spread indicator, and created a short video for it.





Watching cumulative delta we some some selling in ZN and buying in ZB. I thought this meant we would go higher, but it looks like afterwards we faded down 8 ticks. I'm going to spend more time trying to find these differences between the maturities, and try to predict direction based on these changes.

On range I felt like the opening was slow and we wouldn't see much movement. The opening range was only 8 ticks. However I did think long was the best course of action. I could have made 5 ticks and would have risked 5 ticks.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Today I did a little bit of cleanup in my workspace, and some work on a video for using github to manage your ninjascripts. I also tried stacking various indicators on my spread like Bollinger Bands. This seems to show me some areas that you should avoid trading, but I'll need to do a strategy analysis later.



first 30 minutes of trading: 4 tick range.
first 60 minutes of trading: 6 tick range.

For my directional trade I chose long and was wrong. Could have made 3 ticks on it (not enough to get filled on the 4th tick), but could have lost up to 8.

Looks like we may continue further. I think in this case the trend was really clear after it failed at 153'20. So I'm thinking I didn't have enough information when I made my choice, and I need to wait a tad longer.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Today I decided to go long at 153'25 for my long trade. I could have made 3 ticks, but I could have 5-10 depending on when you put the time cutoff. Lots of range bound days here. These are days that traditionally have given me trouble so I'm not surprised my directional trade is off. However, I'm getting a lot better at seeing them early. We're in rollover, and there's just not a lot of news. The opening ranges are small. Days to just sit out.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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A new video going over some ideas I'm working on. Focuses on some psychology aspects so I'd love to know what people think:



For my directional trade I went short at 03. The trade went 4 ticks against me, but I could have made 3-9 ticks depending on when I ended my session.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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For my directional trade I went long at 153'02. I could have gotten 8 ticks out of it, never went below 02, and had as much as 7 ticks against it.

However, there had already been quite a bit of move before this trade. Big difference from the past days I've done this.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Today when I came in I immediately wanted to buy 06. Not sure what it is about this particular setup that felt so confident, but when I feel like this we often get a trend day and it came through.

If I had taken 06 I could have made up to 18 ticks with at most a 5 tick pullback on me.

However around the time that I usually make my directional call we were during that 5 tick pullback. Forced to make a call there I was kinda feeling short. Makes me think maybe the time I've been looking at has a tendency to be counter-trend.

I also had some good luck with my 1 tick setups. Basically signals based on prices that trade back and forth a lot, or prices that don't trade at all. Not enough data yet but some of them are 80% winners so maybe I'm a believer. They still need work though as I've already identified some spots where you'll get the signal but it's just a super bad idea to take.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Today for a directional trade I went short at 153'11 based largely on a big sell order that nobody wanted to trade against. I could have made up to 9 ticks, although if I had held through to my stopping time I would have just been flat. I also started testing some of the more successful trade setups I had been tracking on spreadsheet. I went 5/6 today so pretty happy about that. Looking at possibly recording soon.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Today we went long after the news at 154'01. My logic being that 154 was a significant point of control in the last contract, the news was really bad, and while the liquidity was still pulled after the release there was abortion at 154'01.

Could have made 27 ticks, but let's just say that we waited for that point of control to develop at 154'21. Biggest move we had against us was 12 ticks.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
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Today I went long at 154'10. I could have caught 8 ticks off it with not more than 3 ticks against me. I also tried placing my trade and a few 1 tick scalps on my defunct combine account. I may start recording again soon.

We've definitely entered into the summer months. Today's movement was almost entirely market making. This made me a little more confident to pick that 154'10 for a reversal. There's not much news this week. Things could get very slow.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
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Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Today for a daily trade I went long at 155'02. I could have made 6 ticks, and it ended up going against me 8 ticks. I traded this one and held it a bit too long, and only took 3 ticks out of it. I should have known better, and taken a profit earlier.

There was some good opportunities today. A lot of the signals I was trading before were working out today. Particularly watching price come down to those big limit orders that pulled as soon as they touched. I'm getting an idea of more filters to use. For instance it had come away from the popular prices before it made the flush, and it traded through 3 levels with almost no trades going the other way. We're also seeing a lot of big orders that act as magnets. I'm going to start forward testing these to see the probabilities.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Today I had another one of those "looks like I should just buy on the open". So I bought 154'28. I could have made 6 ticks on it. I did take the trade in sim, and got out at +4 ticks. If I had held it all session it would have gone 6 ticks against me, and then ended about 1-2 ticks in profit. I think this was good proof of where this exercise has helped me. I knew that the overnight range was small, and that there was no significant news today. My analysis the past few weeks helped me know how much I should be looking for. That said after it hit the range both ways a few times we ultimately went lower so I consider myself wrong on what I thought the day trend would be.

I also had a few more successful tests of my scalp setups. I'm running into a bit of an issue because I'm finding sometimes Rithmic claims I would have been filled, and I just don't believe it. When my position in the queue is estimated by jigsaw to be 200, and then Rithmic says I'm filled when only 9 orders traded there? So far I just wait and see if the price still gets cleared, and so far it has every time. So I still feel confident that this can work in live trading, but the only way to prove it is to do it live.

I've set up a performance coach call with TopStepTrader to see what they think, and depending on how that goes I might reset my combine to try again next week.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Today's trade was short 154'17. I was actually really mad because I was basing that trade on the idea that 19 was rejected, but then it blew right through that. Still if I had kept it I could have made 20 ticks with 5 ticks against me. I didn't have too many scalp trades, but I caught the reload several times. Still some questionable fills in places. Really making me itch to try the combine again so I can get live asap.

I'm noticing that I'm starting to talk like I know what I'm doing again. Definitely think I might be getting overconfident here. Some of these trades look good on paper, but it's only been a week. I need to keep in mind that the win percentages probably won't stay this high.

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  #74 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
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TWDsje View Post
.
I'm noticing that I'm starting to talk like I know what I'm doing again. Definitely think I might be getting overconfident here.

This made me chuckle. I am guilty of this as well. Good self-monitoring.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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For the daily trade I went long at 154'30. Super slow moving day, lots of absorption. Ended up being a loser for 10 ticks against me. I had some good two tick scalps that helped me stay marginally profitable for the day. Very interesting market action, but I'm more interested in seeing how people position Monday and Tuesday before the FOMC.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Went long at 154'28. Could have gotten 8 ticks out of it, with none against me. It took longer than usual for me to make a decision however. Slow action. The combination of auctions and FOMC is leading to some really bizarre action.

My scalp setups worked really well today, and I was able to get more ticks out of them than usual. It also kept me out of the action until things picked up after fail 153'26. I'm really starting to become a believer in my new way of looking at order flow.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
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Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

I went long at 153'23. It went against me 5 ticks, and I could have made 13 ticks. My scalps are doing well and are turning into 2-4 tick winners.

But the most interesting thing was that the spread trade I've been waiting for showed up. Basically you'll see unusual order flow with iceberg orders on different sides of the market. Basically indications of a big spread trade happening. My theory is you take the side of the iceberg orders. So I have a NOB spread cumulative delta indicator that I wrote, and you can see the dip in delta on the lowest plot on the chart below. So I went long here, and caught a few ticks. Of course afterwards we came off those highs and then we had a situation where ZB went lower and ZN traded in a range. So there's obviously still a lot for me to understand about this complicated market action.

I've been doing well today, and at one point today I would have hit the TST combine profit target. So starting next week I will reset my combine and start posting daily recordings again.

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  #78 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

With my wive's family up in the mountains for the rest of this week, but I was able to bring my laptop to trade in the morning. What? You thought I'd miss FOMC day?



I've been preparing for this day for a while now. I'm building a house that will be finished in October, so the interest rates make a big difference for me. Watching the order flow for the past three days showed heavy buying when we were going up, and so I was preparing to go long into today.

When the CPI news hit I knew exactly how to play it, and was able to catch the edge of a pullback at 155'18. I could have made 40 ticks, which is by far the best trade I've ever made.

I'd like to sit and let it run, but I got out at 155'26 as that's my time window. I'm still predicting you should go long into FOMC. Yeah, I'm pretty happy with myself right now. I think I'll just take the next two days off so that my ego doesn't get the best of me.

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  #79 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Made a few mistakes today, but made 5 ticks overall.


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  #80 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Super choppy and frustrating day. My daily trade was going to be long at 02, and while it looks like that was ultimately the right choice it didn't break out of the range before my trading time ended. I took a big hit when it failed to break out to the upside the first time, and the rest of trading was a wash.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

I made some big mistakes early on and redeemed myself later to take a profit on the day. I tried playing the level break, and I think the move up was enough to justify playing that trade. However, once it failed I should have waited.

I think my strategy was in a bit of a drawdown. It does best when there's lots of back and forth. This week it hasn't been doing that as much. Plus I've been feeling sick earlier in the week, and starting the combine may be making me a little nervous. I think my later trades today helped me gain some confidence.



I didn't track a daily trade today, but I think my most confident was going short at '20. That would have been 12 ticks with hardly any pullbacks.

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  #82 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Today started good, I made my trend direction prediction trade right out of the gate at 156'25. I predicted that it would result in either a trend or double distribution. However, I had a really hard time focusing. I upgraded my PC over the weekend, and fixing some of the issues there really distracted me. I started to feel nervous, and I did not get the best exits and entries on my profitable trades. Plus the move up was just really choppy because the emini and 10-year were not cooperating. I was correct when I said short the emini at 2444t, but it wasn't a profitable trade in the bonds. I read the action correctly, but my execution was very poor. So I ended the day flat. No video today because my computer issues screwed up the recording.

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  #83 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Had issues uploading yesterday's video. Came out with 4 ticks profit.



Today was exciting, but in the end it was just a crap shoot for me. I had a bad loss streak followed by a decent win streak. Overall took -5 on the day. I'm noticing I'm doing this a lot, and I'll be focusing on how to limit my losses. My strategy did really great before I started the combine, but now we're seeing more uncertainty. When you add the commissions on top of things I need to do better to hit the profit target. I could have hit the target by now if I didn't have these tilting sprees.


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  #84 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received



Textbook reversal at the lows today. There was also a pretty crazy stop run. I was a little more disciplined, and stuck to high probability touches. Walked away green with 10 ticks or so.

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  #85 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received



This one is pretty embarrassing. My face in the preview image says it all. Avoid Fridays before a long holiday week.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

I didn't record today because of the shorter trading day. I was not expecting much action, and I was planning on programming. However, I saw some early movement, and was able to scalp 11 ticks out of the market. I regret not recording.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received



Survived the early chop, and made a good profit on the up move. I picked some decent spots. Unfortunately the volume on my mic is all messed up, and you can't hear any of my explanation. The gist of it is I am looking for spots where I see balanced trade, and overall market interest.

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  #88 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received



Today was very difficult trading. There was a lot of spreading that seemed to go against the grain. I'm not sure what caused this, but it all washed out by the end of my trading. I ended up having several really great trades, but I was looking for continuation that never appeared. Each time I let it go against me. I took a $500+ up day and turned it into a $500+ down day. I'm super disappointed in my performance today.

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  #89 (permalink)
salt lake utah
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
rintin2x's Avatar
 
Posts: 541 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 634 given, 533 received

Rough patches along the road is expected, keep plowing it thru if you don't see major hole in the strategy, you'll be ok! 500 up to 500 down sucks, but I believe you'll figure it out how to deal with it sooner or later.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

I had some connection issues today so I'm going to omit today's video. I really couldn't make heads or tails of what was going on in today's order flow, and I lost a few ticks.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Very mixed action today. Not good for scalping. Lost 4 ticks, and this combine is on the edge of hitting max drawdown.



Taking a step back from this run. I've succeeded in improving my win rate, but I still have tilt days. Some of my studies this weekend have shown me places where I have a high probability of being right, but the risk outweighs the reward. Looking for better ways to look at my risk to get a better balance.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

No recording as Ninjatrader had issues connecting to the license server. I've been doing studies with VWAP bands.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

I was at a local conference last week, and it looks like because of that I forgot to post some videos.



This day was ok, but I felt that trading so close to the combine drawdown limit was creating bad habits. I canceled my account until I can some more testing on certain strategies. I was able to get my winrate up, but the system was not containing losses. With the system as it is you can't afford to miss a big move. I'm testing a number of strategies including ones based on VWAP.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Finally had a good day where I didn't screw up the recording!



I made my initial trade based on what appeared to be a bottoming out in the spread together with order flow signals. As luck would have it we had a huge run up afterwards. I looked for what news could have triggered such a run, but never found it. Several 5k+ prints in ZN in an instant. Later on in the day we got several good examples of reloading setting up for stop runs. I made a few mistakes but still came out with a good profit of $380. I've never seen anything quite like it, and I'm sure this should make John Grady's webinar today extra interesting.

If you don't trade treasuries or watch the DOM/Order Flow I highly encourage you to watch this video. This might be my favorite video.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Had an issue with yesterdays video and had to reupload. Sorry for the delay.

I've had good trading both days. The action itself is also crazy, and worth looking at. Extremely large orders going both ways, and stop runs as large as 6 ticks! My exits need a lot of work, but I've been doing a much better job at finding low risk entries. I feel like my trading has improved significantly, but these market conditions are highly unusual. Don't want to read too much into it. Still, I can't help but notice that I start doing well right after I fail the combine.





I don't know if anyone cares for the things I say in the video, but I have to apologize for the volume issues. I've reduced the noise in the room so I'll probably just turn the noise filter off in the next video.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Slow action. Market makers made a few moves that I got good entries on, but didn't manage the trades very well. Small loss on the day.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Slow day, but got lucky. Normally the 2-3 days before FOMC we see a move in the market. Today? Nothing.


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  #98 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Another crazy move today, and I happened to be on the right side of it. Start at 22:40 to see the crazy.


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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Had an issue uploading the video from yesterday so you get two today. Yesterday's trading I took a beating. The overall numbers weren't horrible, but it shows that I still need work on limit losses.



Today's action was really confusing to be honest. I had a big trade go against me, and a bit trade go in my favor. Basically ending the day flat.



I also want to point out a trade I found amusing at around 2:12:56:. We were sitting at the low of the day, and ticked up when someone bought everything at 08. Immediately after that there was about 100 lots that hit 09 which I think were probably stop orders.

I had to laugh. We're sitting at the lows and just one tick up is triggering buy stop orders? It's not unusual to tick up a few times there before someone does a level break to push lower. So it seems like the impulsive buys there was someone really getting fooled. It was a dead giveaway that we were going lower.

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SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
 
Posts: 621 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 19 given, 653 received

Looks like Friday's video never got uploaded.





Nothing too interesting today. Ended up basically flat on the day. We are in a very interesting area from a technical perspective, but the markets were trading with summer chop action most of the session.

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