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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)
The long awaited trend down finally materialized today. I had a great trade with good entries and exits for 4 ticks down. There was a second leg later that I missed. I believe this is significant movement ahead of the FOMC, and may indicate future tightening.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Big moves ahead of the FOMC meeting later today. Treasuries moved up impulsively off weak inflation data, but the market used that opportunity to get massively short!
I wanted to wait to post this one so I could see the result of the FOMC announcement. It looks like people were short, and they closed their shorts after the announcement. There wasn't much movement after that.
Slow trading turned into a great short opportunity. Sellers absorbed a ton of contracts near the VWAP, and then pulled all the bids to take the lows. I got out at the bottom, and it looks like I wasn't the only one. After I stopped trading we moved back up.
This one's going in the tilt archive. If you want a run down go to the end of the video. I've been doing really well for the month so a tilt day is expected. The good news though is that tilt day now is waaay better than a tilt day from before. I only lost $140 and took two trades before I realized it wasn't my day. Once again switching to ZN seems to be helping.
I livestreamed the opening of the Bitcoin futures, and we got a lot of interest. So this video is very different from past ones as there's tons of talking and answering questions from people in the YouTube chat. I'll try to get a window for the youtube chat so you can see better what people are saying in chat. At one point we had 3,000 subscribers, so there's definitely interest in the Bitcoin futures.
I also did a livestream this morning, so you get a bit more commentary on what I'm thinking on my trades, interspersed with discussion about Bitcoin on the first day of futures. Overall a good day with 6 ticks profit. The NOB spread moved up significantly today. Note that it takes longer for YouTube to process streams so if it doesn't start that beginning of the video just wait longer for it to finish processing.
With bitcoin on there it's hard to fit everything on screen. So any suggestions on what I'm showing is appreciated. I doubt interest in the Bitcoin futures will stay around forever. I want to make sure the treasury traders are still able to see what's important for using these videos to replay later.
Great trend day. I had two decent signals long that I took, but I should have known better. Also had several short moves that I missed. Overall I took -2 ticks on the day.
In Bitcoin we saw the futures traders continue to buy futures despite price being down. Still not many positions being taken.
Today the downtrend continued driven by bund traders. However, we quickly got stuck and went basically nowhere for an hour. This is now the second time where I held on to a trade for over an hour with no progress only to take a small loss. Overall +2 on the day.
Bitcoin also continued its selloff from yesterday, and is retesting key support levels. The volume in the futures are low, but liquidity is increasing with 2 being bid or offered at any one place much more frequently.
No trades today. There was no movement off the news releases, and the overnight range was tight. There was however some crazy action in Bitcoin. We saw trade halted on a limit down move. When trade opened up again nobody wanted to bid and the first bid was $2,000 lower! However, no trades went through there, and bids eventually became reasonable. Lots of volume came through on the cash exchanges and price started to recover.
Sorry have been forgetting to post videos in this thread. I won't bother posting EVERY video I missed, but I'd check out this one from the last day of the year to see the crazy volume we saw towards the close:
Bitcoin has made a bit of a recovery, but I'm still predicting more pain based on my indicator.
