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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)
Crazy test of the lows today that retraced. The last part of the move up looked highly suspect based on cumulative delta readings, and I did not trade it. The test lower also left an unfinished auction. Due to this I believe there is a good probability of revisiting that area later in the week.
Well I had a good first trade. Had some that didn't work out that were ok, but when it was down at the 28 I have a few with no mfe so these were all bad entries. Sucks to have a good read on the day and not take full advantage of it, but we're ok as long as I don't have huge losses on these days.
Accidentally uploaded the wrong video today. Video will be up later. Looks like I also screwed up a few posts.
Yesterday another profitable day where I couldn't get out of my own way for the big profits. I need to start being more confident when we finally get a trend.
Today was an unusually choppy day with runs of 3 or more ticks quickly. I now believe this movement may have been due to Donald Trump tweets and uncertainty about tax reform passing. I had really good entries that were good for 2 ticks, but got losses on almost every one. I hit my daily loss as a result.
This brings me back to flat on my combine. In order to progress I'll need to find a way to overcome this type of day. Seems like there are some similarities with the last time I hit the limit. I'll be looking at opening range to see if there are perhaps clues to tell me when to shorten my targets.
YouTube doesn't like my video from the 25th. It is somehow corrupted and can't be processed. It's ok I did poorly and you don't want to watch it anyways.
I think some tilting continued into today, but I was finally able to get my feet under me. I also found some areas like the opening range midpoint and overnight midpoint that I didn't notice before that I need to avoid.
A bit of discussion at the end about moving over to the tradeovate platform as I take a lot of trades. However, I want to stay in Daytradr so we'll have to wait until they get tradeovate working with the standalone Jigsaw. Then I'll have to rewrite some of my indicators in Tradeovate.
No video today. I am close to the re-bill date on my combine, and so I have decided to cancel this combine and start a new one. This time I am going to try the OneUp as lot of people in our Discord are trying it, and it seems to fit my trading method a little better. I also don't use the 4 contracts in my TST Combine so I might as well go with a smaller account that has a smaller target, but still fits my risk parameters.
This run of the combine was a big improvement over the past. I also believe that I was pretty consistent with how I traded so I can take a lot out of the stats. Here's some screenshots from Jigsaw's stats.
So the first big take away here is that it is actually profitable when you take out the commissions. So that's a big step in the right direction, but I really need to work on reducing the number of trades I take. If we look at days where I kept myself to less than 10 trades I'm actually profitable that day 70% of the time. When I take more than 10 trades in a day I'm profitable only 30% of the time.
I also just have too many bender days. I have one day with 7 losers in a row, and 3 days where I hit my $500 loss limit. They are also all days with a high number of trades taken.
However, the most important take away I think I have from this combine is seeing my performance over across cycles. There appears to be a clear pattern where I tend to do pretty ok at the beginning of the month, but not the rest of the month. I tend to do poorly in the 30 minutes before the stock market opens. Monday's and Fridays are not as profitable. So with that in mind here's my new risk parameters for my next combine.
No more than 3 losers in a row.
No more than 10 trades in a day.
Reduce risk if we are with in 1 standard deviation from the vwap.
Reduce risk if we are near a overnight or initial balance midpoint.
Reduce risk if there is a pullback of 6 or more ticks.
Reduce risk on no news Monday's and Friday's.
Reduce risk starting auction week until the end of the month.
Increase targets first week of the month.
Slow trading today, but overall profitable. Having trouble developing new habits based on my new set of rules. I took two trades in the 9:00 EST time frame looking for it to extend. I didn't list this as a rule in my last post, but I should add it. Reduce risk the 30 minutes before equities open. If I had followed my trading plan perfectly I could have pulled +10, but I end the day with +3. A good indication that my new rules may be on the right track.
Interesting moves today. Something has changed in the curve causing significant spread trades. I still had trouble remembering to avoid the 9:00 ET time period, but walked away with a good 8 ticks.
Started trading on a new combine account with a smaller target. Had a very good breakout today, and left with 8 ticks. I feel like I should have been able to get more like 12-16 ticks, but I traded my strategy correctly. Really happy with my results today. First of the month is usually good so a good day or two is expected. It's next week with the auctions where I'll be tested.
Awful trading today. Completely tilted and hit my daily loss limit. I'm going to be going through my videos to see if there's any patterns I see in past Fridays. I'm starting to think maybe I should just skip them.
