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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)


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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)

  #131 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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We often have big orderflow the days leading up to an FOMC meeting. Today was fairly range bound with several failed attempts to break the range before moving lower. Perhaps tomorrow we'll get a better sense of the direction, but for now the market still seems to want higher rates.

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  #132 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Looks like the market still isn't sure how it wants to position going into FOMC, but ZF kept the trend down. There was a good trade in there, but I didn't see it soon enough. I ended the day down 6 ticks. If I had held my last trade I would have come out profitable, but I had to cut it short due to time. Seems like this is a good indicator that I need to trade differently. When it takes a long time for the trend to become clear, I should take shorter targets.

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  #133 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Some pretty strong buying that was unable to push through resistance. May be some larger play, we'll see what happens. I'm guessing buyers will sell after the news on the first pop. I believe FOMC may be more dovish than the market expects. Let's see what happens.

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  #134 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Today is the day after the Federal Reserve announced they are going forward with their balance sheet reduction. Today's video may turn out to be a great one to look back on. Not because I traded really well or really badly (I got a small profit for the day), but because we had such wild action. Here we are at the start of what may be the best trade since QE, and the market is just whipping everyone around.

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  #135 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Somewhat unhappy with my trading today. I had one great trade that came one tick short of it's target, and I took a small loss on. I had another great trade short that I picked a poor entry on so I gave up on it before it went. Finally I had a great trade to the short side that didn't break until after my timeframe ended. Could have been an ok 8 tick day for me, but I got -5.

Seems like where I've been at for a while now. Small wins or losses going nowhere. I need to turn my focus back to increasing my win rate so that I can take more small winning days.

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  #136 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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I was a little cautious of trading today, but it looks like they wanted to finish the fight from Friday. I was able to make 8 ticks, but missed a few targets. I should have limit orders in at my targets when I am expecting more range bound trading.

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  #137 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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A decent pullback today. Still having trouble perfecting my exits, but all three trades I made were profitable. Good day overall.

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  #138 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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I'm very disappointed today. We had a good overnight move, and it started to extend into the US session. I had a few good first trades, but really missed the best opportunity. I could have kept my first trade for 12 ticks for instance. Then I started tilting and gave up a lot on some really dumb trades. So I gave up what I made yesterday. Not like a disaster or anything, but I definitely feel disappointed. On the plus side the market seems to be acting like it should now. So hopefully there are some better opportunities in store.

NOB spread made a huge move today. Looks like a good spot to put on a longer term trade. It's at 223.3 or so now and I expect it to go to 225.

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  #139 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Long rant at the beginning. Took on too much risk today. I normally size up when the bid or ask is really pushing, but today it was just bots. I also didn't follow my overall gameplan. I'll be making a few changes to my sizing strategy because of today.

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  #140 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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I was lucky enough to be short when news about Kevin Warsh hit. Ended with +13 on the day. Great video.

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