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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)


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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)

  #91 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Very mixed action today. Not good for scalping. Lost 4 ticks, and this combine is on the edge of hitting max drawdown.



Taking a step back from this run. I've succeeded in improving my win rate, but I still have tilt days. Some of my studies this weekend have shown me places where I have a high probability of being right, but the risk outweighs the reward. Looking for better ways to look at my risk to get a better balance.

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  #92 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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No recording as Ninjatrader had issues connecting to the license server. I've been doing studies with VWAP bands.

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  #93 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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I was at a local conference last week, and it looks like because of that I forgot to post some videos.



This day was ok, but I felt that trading so close to the combine drawdown limit was creating bad habits. I canceled my account until I can some more testing on certain strategies. I was able to get my winrate up, but the system was not containing losses. With the system as it is you can't afford to miss a big move. I'm testing a number of strategies including ones based on VWAP.

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  #94 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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Finally had a good day where I didn't screw up the recording!



I made my initial trade based on what appeared to be a bottoming out in the spread together with order flow signals. As luck would have it we had a huge run up afterwards. I looked for what news could have triggered such a run, but never found it. Several 5k+ prints in ZN in an instant. Later on in the day we got several good examples of reloading setting up for stop runs. I made a few mistakes but still came out with a good profit of $380. I've never seen anything quite like it, and I'm sure this should make John Grady's webinar today extra interesting.

If you don't trade treasuries or watch the DOM/Order Flow I highly encourage you to watch this video. This might be my favorite video.

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  #95 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Had an issue with yesterdays video and had to reupload. Sorry for the delay.

I've had good trading both days. The action itself is also crazy, and worth looking at. Extremely large orders going both ways, and stop runs as large as 6 ticks! My exits need a lot of work, but I've been doing a much better job at finding low risk entries. I feel like my trading has improved significantly, but these market conditions are highly unusual. Don't want to read too much into it. Still, I can't help but notice that I start doing well right after I fail the combine.





I don't know if anyone cares for the things I say in the video, but I have to apologize for the volume issues. I've reduced the noise in the room so I'll probably just turn the noise filter off in the next video.

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  #96 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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Slow action. Market makers made a few moves that I got good entries on, but didn't manage the trades very well. Small loss on the day.


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  #97 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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Slow day, but got lucky. Normally the 2-3 days before FOMC we see a move in the market. Today? Nothing.


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  #98 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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Another crazy move today, and I happened to be on the right side of it. Start at 22:40 to see the crazy.


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  #99 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Had an issue uploading the video from yesterday so you get two today. Yesterday's trading I took a beating. The overall numbers weren't horrible, but it shows that I still need work on limit losses.



Today's action was really confusing to be honest. I had a big trade go against me, and a bit trade go in my favor. Basically ending the day flat.



I also want to point out a trade I found amusing at around 2:12:56:. We were sitting at the low of the day, and ticked up when someone bought everything at 08. Immediately after that there was about 100 lots that hit 09 which I think were probably stop orders.

I had to laugh. We're sitting at the lows and just one tick up is triggering buy stop orders? It's not unusual to tick up a few times there before someone does a level break to push lower. So it seems like the impulsive buys there was someone really getting fooled. It was a dead giveaway that we were going lower.

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  #100 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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Looks like Friday's video never got uploaded.





Nothing too interesting today. Ended up basically flat on the day. We are in a very interesting area from a technical perspective, but the markets were trading with summer chop action most of the session.

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