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Watching Paint Dry (Bonds and Ninjascript video journal)
Action after FOMC minutes notes was interesting. My bias going in was short, but there was a lot of up volume for the first 15 minutes or so after the release. After we topped off and came back below VWAP some big players started revealing their hands. Tricksy institutionses indeed.
Coming up on a full week of trading live, and doing pretty good. In today's video I gave a pretty thorough breakdown of how I trade to a new user in the discord that may interest others.
Posting every day is starting to make things cluttered so I'm going to only post significant milestones or days in here from now on.
I had a good first week with live, but then global risk from a trade war and Syria stepped in. We've been stuck in an area of high interest, and have ranged here for several weeks. The worst kind of trading for me, and I've been on a pretty bad losing streak. I had one tilt day, but overall I've done better limiting my losses on this losing streak. However, I don't have a lot of room for error when you factor in the commissions.
Today news that an attack on Syria may not be imminent seems to have given me the setup that I need. I'm starting this video at 1:03:48 where the action starts. I was short with 2-3 ticks against me. However, I know from my stats that 2 ticks against me is not unusual. Perhaps that means I need to optimize my entries, but the adverse ticks did not invalidate the trade. There was a lot of skepticism, and even some people in the room starting to get concerned about me.
I stuck to my guns, and it really paid off. I pulled 8 ticks, and it looks like there was even more if I had been able to trade longer.
This gives me a bit more room and confidence, and we should get good action if the trend continues down. However, that Syria risk might still be out there so I'm still playing it somewhat safe and range bound.
Nothing too significant today. Actually missed a lot of opportunity with a slow trend down. However, there is a lot of discussion about how I determine where I will get filled. Two 1 tick trades that are useful in slower markets.
Well I haven't posted much since April. In that timeframe I've just traded very poorly. I did a lot of work to try and fix the issues I had with range bound markets and minimizing risk, but they have not been successful. Many days I feel like I'm making progress, but it is not showing up in performance at all. The winrate is just terrible now, and my winners never seem to get going.
Part of it may just be the difficulty of summer action. I'm also sure there's still a lot tilt as I've gotten out of things too early many times. However, I'm tracking everything pretty diligently, and it's clear after a few months of trying that this particular style of doing things doesn't work even if I traded it perfectly. The frustrating thing is that I made these changes to deal with range bound markets, but the strategy isn't working despite the low ATR. The whole thing makes me pretty upset. I frequently think about not recording to save the embarrassment, but I'm determined to keep going. There is nothing else I would rather be doing.
I'm going to go back to how I was doing things when I was doing well even though that eventually proved to have its own set of problems when we become range bound. I might also experiment with other products. At the same time I'll continue to try backtesting different stats to try finding a stronger edge. Early next week I'll share some of the statistical tools I've written to help me dig.
Anyways here's today's video so you can listen to me sulk about my difficulties:
Had to highlight this one, and not just because I did pretty well. I've never seen anything that compares to the kind of crazy volume we've seen today.
That move off the news was pretty crazy so I wanted to make sure I put it in the thread. I had a really hard time trading it and gave up a lot of profits so I think this will be a good one to review:
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