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Brooks style ES analysis/trading journal

  #11 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
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Hi @johny1971,

I don't mind your chart in here at all. I welcome anyone with questions or suggestions to add to the journal.

I generally don't use prior swing highs or lows as my entry points. Al does mention them as possible continuation trades in strong trends, but those points often turn out to be better places to fade and scale in against as opposed to trading the breakout. It also puts you at a worse entry price than if you took an earlier stop entry. If I expected more down after bar 25, I would STC of bar 25 rather than place a sell stop below 1. I would also not put a sell stop below bar 20. I would either put the stop entry below 24 or wait for 25 to close.

I see 19, 21, 23 as more of a triangle where you could short below 23 or 24. 29, 31 looks more like a L2, but you could call it a triangle with the micro DT 31, 32. The best short entry in retrospect is obviously below 31, although 31 is not a good looking signal bar. You could also STC bar 32 as you suggested (and it would have worked out), but with consecutive sell climaxes, 18, 25, you might think that buyers could be coming in not far below 27. If you were still short, you would definitely want to get out above 34/35 because of 3 CC sell CX's at prior day's low.

Let me know if you would like any further clarification or if you have any other questions. Thanks and good luck to you!

Tal

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  #12 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 46

Context:
Daily: We are in a choppy TTR. Yesterday was a 3rd failed push up after 3/30 and 4/5. We are failing at the daily 20 EMA and the breakdown point from 3/21. Bulls may give up soon and wait to buy lower. This could set up another downside BO.
But since we are in a TTR, BO's should be expected to fail unless you see evidence otherwise.

60 min: Past few days have been in a slightly slanted bull channel that has 3 pushes up over the past 3 days. It should break downward for another leg down after the breakdown on 4/5. We will see. Less likely BO's can be good because traders on the wrong side get squeezed which creates bigger moves.

5 min: Past 3 days I see TR, TR, TR. Until something else happens, I will continue to expect TR. Y had more of that BUBD=BC=TR PA. But it did have some nice swings that could be traded by a momentum trader.

ON: Opening inside Y's range near the low.

Bars:

1 Big bull doji. Failed BO of lows of past 2 days and rev up but big bar with big tail on top so may be start of more TR PA with BB and SA.

2 Big 2 bar rev but tails and large bars so lowers prob. of sell below 2.

3 Strong BO, OK STC. I was thinking of waiting to see what the FT looked like and then sell the PB if good, so I did not sell yet.

4 OK FT, prob SA

5 Bull doji rev bar. I had a sell limit order at bar 4 high which did get filled even though price did not trade above 4. I am looking for another push down after strong 2-4 but this could be an opening reversal here above 5.

6 I did not like the look of bar 6 strong bull rev bar. Looks like opening rev here may be getting more likely.

7 Got out BE on 7. Strong bull FT. 3 CC bull bars. Likely BB. Another BDBU move. Not surprising at this point.

8 Big bear inside bar. Prob BB but we appear to be failing just below Y's low. I am waiting for more PA.

9 Strong entry bar for L1 short below 8 for BO PB from BO of Y's low.

10 DB with 5, but doji, not good signal bar.

11 DB with 4/3 low.

12 Micro DB with 11, DB with 5 and the 4/3/17 low. Poss OK swing buy above. I do not usually take these reversal trades. I don't like to trade against the trend. If the market reverses up strongly. I look to buy a PB below a prior bar.

13 Did not trigger above 12. Bear BO instead. Risk of exhaustive CC sell CX's.

14 Strong bull bar after 2 legs down. May have buyers above and shorts exiting above.

15 Possible wedge with 11 and 13.

16 Bear inside bar. L2 short below. OK swing short but may have BB 15. I did not take it.

Got to go for today. Chart later.

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  #13 (permalink)
 
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 johny1971 
Omaha, NE/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: S5 Trader; Jigsaw; TOS
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: ZN
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TalB View Post
I see 19, 21, 23 as more of a triangle where you could short below 23 or 24. 29, 31 looks more like a L2, but you could call it a triangle with the micro DT 31, 32. The best short entry in retrospect is obviously below 31, although 31 is not a good looking signal bar. You could also STC bar 32 as you suggested (and it would have worked out), but with consecutive sell climaxes, 18, 25, you might think that buyers could be coming in not far below 27. If you were still short, you would definitely want to get out above 34/35 because of 3 CC sell CX's at prior day's low.


Great points! - especially the L2/DT. The 3 CC CX is a good call as well.

I am still wondering if (1) you view a triangle (as Al calls it) as a straight horizontal line and (2) if you see it as a continuation pattern.

Thanks for taking the time to address this stuff, it is helping!

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  #14 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 46


johny1971 View Post
Great points! - especially the L2/DT. The 3 CC CX is a good call as well.

I am still wondering if (1) you view a triangle (as Al calls it) as a straight horizontal line and (2) if you see it as a continuation pattern.

Thanks for taking the time to address this stuff, it is helping!

I use Al's terminology for triangles (also synonymous with wedges). He defines them as any 3 push pattern. They do not have to be in a wedge or triangle shape, just need 3 pushes. The expectation is for wedges to reverse. If the wedge is a 3 push pullback (counter-trend move) within a trend move you are trying to enter, the wedge is a countertrend pullback. When that wedge reverses, the main trend move continues. This may be a good with-trend entry. If the trend move you are trading forms 3 big with-trend pushes, be alert for at least a 10 bar/2 leg correction or reversal. You would not be looking for a with-trend entry in this case.

Let me know if that makes sense to you.

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  #15 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 46

Context:
Daily: Trading continued in typical TR fashion. Attempted BO below prior lows found buyers and market reversed right back into the TTR. Bulls have an opportunity now after 3 failed pushes down (4/3, 4/5 and 4/11) to make another push up and break above the 3/15 and 3/21 highs and retake dominance. But because of TTR, more likely sellers not too far above yesterday and recent prior highs.

60 min: Market broke strongly below recent bull channel low, then reversed strongly back up closing near the underside of the prior channel. This is OK location for sellers to come back in (underside of prior broken channel and 60 min 20 period EMA), but after strong reversal back up may be more of a failed BO and "spring" for stronger push back up. Confusing, which is hallmark of TR.

5 min: Another BDBU TR day that formed an expanding triangle into the close. We have to keep expecting TR PA until the market changes it's mood (which it will always do eventually).

ON: Looks like we are going to open right in the middle of Y's ~3 hour upper TR. Expecting more TR PA.

Bars:

1 Bear doji in middle of Y's SW area. Another LOM open. Prob BB, SA.

2 Now bull doji. Still looks like LOM.

3 So far scalpers made money buying the 1 low and selling the 1 high. DT with 1. I am waiting for a good looking BO before trading this.

4 Micro DT with 3, DT with 1, but middle of TTR so low prob.

5 Failed L2, DB with bar 2, 4 CC bull bodies. May try to BO up here. I am not taking a trade here though.

6 Bear inside bar. Not great environment to initiate swing trades here.

7 Al would call this BO mode. Each side keeps failing, but soon one side will win and the other will stop out. Given the current environment, the BO could just as easily fail and reverse. Given all of the bull bodies, I would say upside is a little more likely, but not much.

8 Bear ioi, wedge with 1 and 4. May have sellers below.

9 There were sellers below 8 but buyers not too far below at the 1 low. DB with 2.

10 Bull BO attempt, but resistance above at 60 min 20 EMA, Y's close and ET upper tend line from Y's ET into the close.

11 Wedge with 1 and 4 for failed BO. But big bar 11 and tail = TR PA continues.

12 OK entry bar for shorts below 11 wedge. We will see if any further FT. This has been a fantastic environment for scalpers. For me, I am just waiting.

13 Doji inside bar. Poss wedge low with 1 and 9, but not pretty.

14 Bear doji. Another failed push down. Poss wedge low with 1 and 9.

15 Bear BO attempt but may have buyers around bar 70 low from Y or lower trend line from ET into Y's close.

16 Minimum FT of bear body. But low right at bar 70 low from Y.

17 Poss ET low soon. But may have SA after 4 CC bear bars. Still closing above Y's bar 70 low.

Got to go. Chart later.

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  #16 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 46

Here is the chart for 4/12/17

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  #17 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 46

Context:
Daily: Yesterday was a small bear inside day just below daily 50 EMA. Possibly more bearish but price is really coiled and could go either way.

60 min: Past 2 days looks like a L2 (pretty pennant) at 60 minute 20 EMA. Given the downtrend since 4/5, this should break to the downside to test the 3/27 low and maybe close some gaps below that.

5 min: Y was a trending TR day. I see it as somewhat bearish that it came a tick from getting back to the open at around 2:00 EST before reversing. Traders more eager to sell or getting less eager to buy there.

ON: Broke to downside and should make small gap down, but is reversing back up to open above Tuesday's low.

Bars:

1 Small gap down but just above Tuesday's low. Bull rev bar. Poss DB with Tue.

2 Bull FT OK BTC (I did) for DB with Tuesday and failed BO of Y's low. Wedge PB with Tuesday's bar 70 and Y's bar 29.

3 Doji, prob BB after strong bars 1,2.

4 Bar 3 did find BB creating a H1 buy SB for bar 4.

5 Strong bull BO from H1 above bar 4. Hit my 4 point profit target. These are my favorite trades where you have a good location (DB with 2 days ago and failed BO of Y's low) and bullish opening PA. Most likely to get a quick move to my profit target.

6 Micro DT with 5, bear rev bar, but likely BB for at least one more push up.

7 Another H1 BO. May get SW to down PB or rev soon after poss parabolic wedge with 3 and 5. I never sell strong bull moves, but I try to be aware of when I might expect a PB or reversal.

8 Closed micro gap with bar 6. Poss PB here for parabolic wedge with bars 3 and 5. If get one more push up, may find resistance around the 60 min 20 EMA or Y's bar 54 or Y's high.

9 Strong bear entry bar for parabolic wedge reversal. Increasing risk for deeper PB or rev. Let's see if there is more bearish FT or more SW.

10 Failed H1 above 9, may have sellers below but some support at 20 EMA and bar 6 low/Y's close.

11 Bull reversal bar, DB with 6. H2 buy above. OK swing buy but I see enough resistance ahead of my 4 point PT and risk of more SW here that I am not buying.

12 Did not trigger H2 buy above 11. Rev down with bear trend bar. But stopped at Y's close and 6 low for another poss DB with 6. Price getting choppy here is not surprising. If you look to the left, you see we are back within Y's choppy lower SW TR area.

13 Bull inside bar creating another possible H2 buy above. OK swing buy for H2 at EMA but with the current location and choppy movement/tails I am not buying.

14 Micro DB with 11, DB with 6. Wedge with bars 9 and 12. Bears keep failing at support here. Buy above 14 is starting to look better. Ugly SB and recent choppy price movement makes me hesitant to buy.

15 OK entry bar for those who bought above 14. If did not take buy above 14, could take buy above 15 at 1 tick worse price. If price reverses from here, may get bear BO as buyers give up.

16 Bear rev bar. Bulls may exit below but tail at bottom and close right at EMA makes it look like buyers are still accumulating.

Got to go.

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  #18 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
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Will not be able to trade today. Be back Tuesday.

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  #19 (permalink)
 TalB 
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 103 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 46

Context:
Daily: Price is still coiling SW. Friday's downside BO was followed by a big reversal back up fo another BDBU move. Eventually we will actually get a BO. Until then, traders keep fading extremes causing big swing the other way.

60 min: Monday formed a wedge (3rd push down) along with 4/5 and 4/11. Expect at least 2 legs SW to up. Y was 1st leg. Expect a test down and then another push up or reversal.

5 min: Y formed spike and bull channel that broke up instead of down to break and close at the prior day's high. Another BU day following a BD day. May get SW to down for a couple hours but expect buyers near the channel low for another push up.

ON: PB to open near channel lows and near 50% PB.

Bars:

1 Bull reversal bar with low right at 50% PB from Thu's low to Mon's high.

2 FT buying, but right at 60 min 20 EMA and just below 5 min 20 EMA. Room to Y's close above but may get PB and choppy move up instead of straight shot given location. I did BTC anyway but not very comfortable with setup. Looking to the left, we are still in the range of Y's channel. Price could PB and coil here instead of continuing BO.

3 OK FT, prob BB.

4 Doji rev bar at EMA but prob BB.

5 H1 buy above 5 but bear body.

6 Strong entry bar above bar 5 H1. Target above is Y's close.

7 Strong 2 bar rev just below Y's close. Bar 6 looks like 2nd leg buy vacuum in TR. Bears were very eager to get in here. Moved stop to below 6 and 7 which is BE.

8 Stopped out for BE.

10 Bear BO, but may have buyers near the open and LOD. BUBD=BC=TR PA.

11 Bear doji bouncing off open. May have buyers here or around bar 1 low.

12 Bull doji inside bar. May get 1 more push down below 12, but prob buyers not far below 11 or 1. If BO above, likely sellers near EMA or 10 high.

13 Strong bull bar. May push up here.

14 Bull FT. Right add mid of day, 60 min EMA and just below 5 min EMA.

15 4 CC bull bars. Prob BB for upside targets of bar 10 (BO bar) high or bar 6 close (where BTC and scale in below bulls may exit.)

18 DB with 11, but just below 5 and 60 min EMA's. Prob sellers not to far above or above bar 15.

20 DB with 11, 2 bar rev. bouncing off open. But big bars, just below EMA, right at mid of day lowers prob.

Got to go.

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  #20 (permalink)
 Jumpup78327 
New York, New York/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradovate
Trading: ES, NQ
Posts: 56 since Jan 2017
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