Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
ON: We broke down strongly on very large volume. Looks like OTF traders are coming in now. Looks like we will open at the low of the range of past 3 weeks which is good location for the bulls, but after the nested wedge tops, we will likely get at least a couple legs down and momentum is strong for the bears.
Bars:
1 Very large bull trend bar rev up from just below last Thu's higher low. Good location for the bulls, but breakdown from yesterday was strong. Looks to be a volatile day. Need to be careful. Wider stops and targets are called for as well as trading smaller. Since I am only trading 1 lot and can't cut size, I may not trade if risk is looking too big.
2 FT buying, OK BTC for rev up for failed BO of last Thu's low and near low of 3 week TR. But with the nested wedge tops and strong rev down, I don't really want to buy this. Also risk is higher with larger bars.
3 Large bear trend bar pulling back just below mid of up move. Not good for bulls. May have buyers here, though for at least a micro DT.
4 H1 buy above but bear doji and strong 3, may have sellers around 2 high for micro DT.
5 Did not retest up, strong bear FT instead down to 1 low. BUBD=BC. May get measured move down form 2 high to 1 low.
6 Bear BO, may get move down to MM targets and filling gaps.
7 Rev bar but bear body, prob SA and move down to targets below.
8 Very big outside up rev bar. Not good for bears. Let's see FT. May just be a BO test of 1 low.
9 Strong bear reversal from BO test of 1 low. Gap still open between 1 low and 9 high. Good sign for the bears. MM target below at 2370.75 from 2 high to 1 low.
10 Now a strong bull inside bar. Prob SA for 1 more push down to MM targets below and poss wedge with 1 and 8.
11 Bear iii, OK sell signal bar for BO PB short. May have buyers at MM targets below. Additional MM target from ON bear flag/PB is 2369.75.
13 PB to low of 3 week TR and rev back down for BO PB short below.
14 Hit 4 points for people who STC the bar 6 bear BO and hit MM target from 2 high to 1 low and rev back up. Lets see if we get big PB here and TR day or more down and more likely bear trend.
15 Strong bull entry bar for wedge bottom 1, 8 and 14. Lets see if this rev succeeds or if we just get a DT with 9 and we get a failed wedge and another big move down.
16 2nd entry BO PB short, failed wedge short below. May get another big BO below.
17 Looks like we did get that BO. I did not take the trade because I had to leave now, but looks like I could have gotten a very quick pop here. Oh well.
No trades taken but missed out on 2 shorts that were OK.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Daily: Yesterday was a strong BO downward from a wedge top and failed upward BO of the few month TR. If we get good FT, there should be increased chance of an ultimate break below the 2318 TR low and MM down to 2231.50. Even if TR just continues or continues channel up, we will likely get at least one more leg down after Y's strong breakdown.
60 min: Strong breakdown yesterday closed some gaps. There is room down to MM target and lower gap close at 2346.50. After strong breakdown/sell climax yesterday, may have FT selling to start next day, but high prob of at least 1-2 hours of PB SW to up.
ON: Initially PB but then had FT selling down to MM target below before rev back up. Very high ON vol again. Likely retest ON low and MM targets but may spend some time consolidating today after big breakdown yesterday.
Bars:
1 Big bull rev bar to open the day again. Wedge with Y's 64 and 78. May fail at EMA above.
2 Bull doji FT, close at Y's close. Room to EMA above. Not good SB for short.
3 Strong bear bar. BUBD=BC. Close at open. May go SW here around Y's low.
4 Micro DT with 2 but TTR, big bars = big risk, selling below would be selling at bottom of TTR with big risk, not great short.
5 Buyers came in below 4. So far LOM open. DB with 1. May get another push up to EMA. Market getting into BO mode.
Treasury Secretary speaks at 10:00, may move market given political uncertainty/scandals right now.
7 Strong bull BO, but may fail and get DT with Y's 79. It did break strongly above the EMA and there is room to Y's prior lower high at 2366.50. Let's see FT.
8 OK FT, prob BB and move to Y's bar 71 lower high.
9 3 CC bull bars. Prob BB and 1 more leg up. Risk of deep PB given early PA and weak bar 9. Given level of volatility, I am not buying below, but Ok trade.
have to step away for a minute.
12 Looks like BB 9 was good move. Would have hit 4 point PT here. Been missing trades last couple days. Need to be a little more aggressive.
13 Poss wedge with 4 and 9, DT with Y's 71.
14 Poss wedge with 4 and 9, DT with Y's 71. 2 bar rev with strong bear SB. Tight channel, may need at least a micro DT.
15 Bear doji entry bar. H1 entry above but bad SB. Prob sellers above 14 if triggers.
Daily: After big down last Tue-Wed and big up last Thu-Fri, we may have big confusion and TR PA. We are wedged between the 20 and 50 day EMA's, and we may go SW here for a bit.
60 min: Last Thu, there was a nice L2 sell signal at the 60 min EMA for another leg down. Instead, that push down failed and we got a strong bull BO Fri as those shorts got stopped out. We should get another push up after the surprise bull BO, but since we are back into the TR of the past month and last week had that BDBU move, I expect more SW/TR PA than big moves.
4 Another bull bar, but tail, closing in middle. Prob BB after 4 bull bars.
6 H1 BO PB buy above.
7 Strong entry bar for H1 buy above 6.
8 Strong bear reversal bar for DT with 4, 2nd entry failed BO above Fridays high.
9 I exited with a -0.50 point loss below 8. Bear entry bar pulled back exactly to Fri's high. May get BO PB long attempt here, but prob SA after strong 8, 9. May go BUBD and test down to open and EMA. Then go SW around Fri's high.
10 Here is our H2 BO PB long attempt. Prob SA after strong 8,9.
11 There were SA 10, but FT selling below was weak. Target below is open and then MM down from HOD to open is down to Y's close.
12 Micro DB with 11, 2nd entry BO PB buy above.
13 Big outside down bar right to EMA. Prob will test open. May just go SW here for a bit or continue breakdown to Y's close and close gap.
Have to step away for a few minutes.
26 DT with 13, looks like TR day or broad bear channel so far. I would wait for 2nd entry before considering short, although I don't like to trade these kinds of days.
28 Small doji right in middle of TR right at Y's high. Traders doing well so far selling highs and buying lows, scaling in.
29 H1 entry above 28, but middle of TR. Prob SA 13 high and 8 high.
30 Reached bar 6 high, which was the first H1 long entry of the day. Some scale in bulls may exit here.
31 DT with 8/HOD, wedge with 20 and 25, but bull doji. May have BB and need at least a 2nd entry. Bulls have shown some signs of strength. Bar 22 BO gap above 21 is still open.
32 Bull inside bar H1 but at top of TR. Had failed BO of bottom of range. May now get failed BO of top of range.
33 Bull BO but risk of failed BO and reversal here.
34 FT but tail forming poss rev bar. But prob BB after 6 CC bull bars in but micro channel.
35 Small bear inside bar for wedge with 18 and 23 for failed BO of TR, but prob BB after strong 29-34. May need 2nd entry for short.
Daily: We have now had 3 consecutive bull days rejecting last week's breakdown. We are now getting high in the upper TR of the past month as well as the larger TR of the past 3 months. Momentum up is good for the bulls but location is good for the bears. Since we are in an area of SW PA, we will likely get more here. We have a gap to fill above, then will likely get selling.
60 min: We have had multiple pushes up since Friday's BO. There is room to fill the gap to the upside, we may then get some selling to test down to the channel low around 2378.
ON: Broke out to the upside to close gap above. May get selling from here.
Bars:
1 Strong bear bar for failed BO above Y's high after gap fill above.
2 Strong bull rev bar at Y's high. May have SA and TR open.
3 Sellers came in right at open and we got a strong bear rev. Strong bear, strong bull, strong bear is confusing and TR PA. Support of Y's close and EMA is just below.
4 FT selling for failed BO above Y's high. But we are right at the EMA and Y's close. We are also entering the area of Y's upper TTR. May go SW in that area.
5 Small doji inside bar. Prob SA after strong 3,4, but may have limited down at this location.
6 BO PB L1, gap still open between 2 low and 6 high.
7 Reached MM target from 3 high to 2 low and reversed quickly back up to form large doji outside bar reversal bar. In area of Y's TTR so not reliable signal bar. More TR PA.
8 Micro DB with 7 off of Y's close and EMA for poss opening reversal.
9 There were SA 8, but we got a big bear bar with big tails in area of the mid of the day. We are rotating around Y's high like we did Y. A short below 9 would be a 2nd entry for failed BO above Y's high. but bad signal bar and location looking left.
10 Bull inside bar. Bad SB for short, and may have sellers not far above around open or HOD.
11 Bull BO attempt. Let's see FT. May have sellers not far above.
12 Small bear inside bar. May have BB for at least a little more up to open or HOD. May need to retest 2397.75 for gap fill above in RTH.
13 Wedge with 9 and 11, DT with 3 at open. But bear doji outside bar as SB.
14 Bear entry bar from wedge, DT at open. But tail, right at Y's high and EMA.
15 Bear inside bar right at Y's high. 4 CC bear bars. May have sellers below to retest 7 low. Prob SA.
16 Bull inside bar 2 bar rev at Y's high, may have buyers above. Targets above are the open, HOD and 2397.75 gap fill above. All not very far above.
17 Bull entry bar for buy above 16. But may have sellers not far above.
18 DT with 13, but doji and buyers have been coming in at EMA and high of yesterday.
19 Bull FT. Close at open of day. May retest 2397.75.
20 Bear inside bar but tail. Bad SB for DT with 13.
21 Small bear doji, iii. Not good SB.
22 Wedge with 17 and 19, DT with 1, but doji SB. Risk of buyers at EMA and Y's high.
23 Bull inside bar, but may have sellers not far above. Poss BO attempt here.
24 BO attempt. Just under ON high and gap fill target of 2397.75.
25 Bear rev bar for failed BO of HOD, but tail. May be better to wait for 2nd entry if want to short.
Daily: Strong reversal back up continued yesterday, but the bars are getting smaller=decreasing momentum. We are high in the TR of the past month and the past 3 months and just under resistance of the March high of 2398 and the ATH of 2404.50. Likely some selling coming in around here to push down to around the month long TR low of 2375.50.
60 min: Yesterday finished in a TTR right at last Tue's gap fill close. The last bar was a small DB bull rev bar, but buying above would be buying high in a TTR. There are more likely SA and we will get a final flag reversal and move down to test 60 min EMA.
ON: Went mostly SW in TTR. Started broad bull channel up in European session. Low ON volume. Opening with small gap up. Likely fail BO of Y's TTR.
FOMC minutes at 2:00 EST
Bars:
1 Bear bar for failed BO above Y's high, but small bar and tail. May have lots of TR PA around here, Y's TTR area.
2 Bear FT to fill gap. Hit EMA. First downside target is Y's bar 76 upper TTR low at 2395.25. Need to be careful here because early selloffs have been bought past couple days. May reverse up to test ATH before reversal down. Likely a lot of SW movement until FOMC.
3 Rev bar at support for opening reversal, but doji and somewhat strong 1 and 2 so more likely SA. May go SW and coil around Y's high.
4 L1 short below, but support not far below.
5 Bull rev back up. Just below open. Will likely hit open then, may rotate up and down for a bit around Y's high.
6 2nd entry for failed BO above Y's high. Poss OK short below, but TTR lowers prob.
7 Bear BO but weak close to bar. Likely will test 2395.25 support, Y's TTR low and MM target.
8 H2 buy above at EMA, but big doji. May have SA to hit targets below.
9 Another bulll doji. Prob sellers not far above, but may have buyers not far below.
10 Bear inside bar, but doji with big lower tail. Bad signal bar. LOM so far.
11 Bull reversal attempt at EMA and Y's close. May have sellers not far above, around open or HOD.
12 DT with 6 at Y's high. But doji in TTR. Current range is only 3.5 points. There will likely be a BO sometime soon to double the range.
13 Touched open and found sellers. DT with 1, failed BO Y's high. Poss OK short below on 3rd failure. TTR lowers prob, but I took short. Good SB high in larger TTR even though in middle of today's TTR.
14 Bad entry bar. Big bull doji came right to SB high to form micro DT. Not what I wanted to see, but I am not surprised.
15 Bear inside bar for 2nd entry below. But small TTR just above EMA.
16 Bull iii at EMA, but TTR and still failing at Y's high.
17 This may go down but I don't like the PA so I exited BE.
19 Here is the bear BO. Let's see if there is FT. Prob buyers around Y's TR low 2395.25. Next target would be 60 EMA 2391.50 if there is a bear BO. May need to wait for FOMC to get bigger moves.
20 Strong bull reversal bar for DB with 7. May have SA for a little more down to targets below.
21 Bear iii, for L1 short below. But low in today's small TR. May have sellers below to test Y's bar 76 low a couple points below.
Daily: The market has moved relentlessly up since last week's failed bear BO. Yesterday went up to just below the ATH. There is a MM target above at 2411 where we may get some sellers.
60 min: We are in a small PB bull trend on the 60 min chart. We have not touched the 60 min EMA for many bars so we are getting climactic. We may get a PB to the EMA after we hit the MM target above.
