Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Daily: Yesterday we had a failed BO of the ATH and formed a bear outside bar with prominent tails at the top and bottom and another TR day in a weak bear channel. No big moves yet TR PA continues. I continue to expect TR PA until we get something different. We do have a possible wedge top though and may get a bigger move soon.
60 min: We are failing at the ATH and April high. No big rejection, though. Buyers are coming in at prior swing lows. We may continue SW here a bit longer around the April high.
ON: Broke below Y's low, formed a DB and rev back up into Y's range. We will open in the lower part of Y's range. Y was a weak bear channel and prob a leg in a TR. We may have a leg back up today.
3 Now bull doji outside bar. 3 overlapping doji's to start looking similar to prior TR days. Y's close is not far above. We will likely test there at some point. Then prior highs from Y are next targets. If today is very quiet, we may have an inside day for an ioi on the daily chart.
4 ioi, Bear rev bar just below the 5 and 60 min EMA, but TTR and support of Y's low just below lowers prob of short.
5 DB with 1, bull rev bar for another leg up after Y's wedge bottom with 23, 49 and 75. Poss swing up here but TTR just below EMA's lowers prob.
6 We are now high in the TTR. We will see if we channel up here or rev again. This kind of PA is not good for stop entries. Better for fading with limit orders and scaling in.
7 Bull doji outside bar. DT with 1 but still in TTR and 3 CC bull closes.
8 Another bull doji. We are 1 tick away from Y's close and should get there at least. We may channel up today but it will likely look choppy like yesterday.
9 DT with Y's 78. Doji rev bar at Y's close and EMA's. May pull back a little here, but I am not shorting given PA so far.
10 L2 entry bar at EMA and Y's close, but given the TTR (only 3.25 point range so far), prob for stop entries are not great. We will have a BO one way or another soon. Range can't stay this small all day. Bar 9 was the best bar for a stop entry so far given that it was a small bar at the top of the day's range, but given the small range so far and the bear channel into a wedge bottom yesterday, there are likely buyers not too far below.
12 Bear BO, but just above Y's low and close right at bottom of TTR. May get to 2387.87 which would fill 4 point target on entry below 9 and find buyers there buying 1 point below Y's low and covering shorts and buying at prior Mar high.
13 Strong bull inside bar for failed BO of LOD. DB with Y's 75. Poss wedge bottom with 1 and 5. Not good for bears.
14 Found some sellers at open and EMA. Still in TTR.
15 Good bull FT on wedge rev up from 13. May get SA 9 though for expanding triangle top with 1 and 9.
16 Bear rev bar for DT with 9, but may have BB after strong 13-15 and wedge bottom.
Got to go. No trades taken. As I noted earlier, today was great so far for anyone who faded all prior highs or lows. (You could have bought the 1 low, then sold the 1 high, then bought the 5 low) You have to be good at managing the trades, though, and scaling in when necessary. You also have to recognize when a strong trend is starting or all of your small scalping gains will get blown away by a big trend move against you. Takes experience and trading multiple contracts (for scaling), so I am not doing that yet.
Daily: Yesterday was an inside day forming an ioi with a small bull bar as a signal bar. This may be setting up a BO. We are just under resistance of the ATH and just above support (which was previously resistance) of the March 15th prior high. I think an upside BO attempt is more likely in order to retest the ATH. It may fail there, though, and set up the reversal back down. We have to watch the strength of the BO's to determine the likelihood of follow through.
60 min: We are forming a smaller LH MTR within a larger HH MTR. I expect that there may be BB Y and Tue's low for another push up.
8 I just sold the 7 high on bar 8. Bull trend bar but tail on top. Not too strong PB yet.
9 Bear doji inside bar. L1 short below.
10 Strong bear entry bar for L1 short below 9.
11 Good FT selling filled 4 point profit target. We are nearing the low of the range we have been in for the last several days so some buying may come in soon. We have had 2 pushes down so far. We will likely get at least one more if not much more down to start closing gaps below.
12 Bull inside bar but may have sellers not too far above for at least one more push down.
13 Micro DB with 11, bull reversal outside bar. May have buyers above to test 10 high and EMA, but more likely SW here than strong reversal.
14 SB for L2 short. May have sellers below for another push down.
15 Sellers did not come in yet. Buyers created a bull trend bar for more up. May get 3 pushes to 10 high and EMA before next attempted push down.
16 Small bear inside bar. OK signal for L2 short below.
19 We broke out up to the EMA and 50% PB. We may get sellers here for a retest back down.
Daily: Friday was a small bull doji inside bar. Buyers came in again below the March 15 prior lower high of 2387.75 to close above it. We will likely test above Friday and make one more ultimate push up to test the ATH and form a wedge top. Because we have been in a tight range for a few weeks where most recent bars have been doji's, we will more likely initially find sellers not far above and buyers not far below.
60 min: Past couple days coiled in the middle of the range of the last few weeks. We had 2 pushes down from the Tue ATH. Last Thu reversed up strongly for a push back up. We will likely get another push up to Wed's high (from which price broke down strongly).
ON: Price went big up, followed by a big down PB, then rev back up. Price is opening with a gap above Fri's high right around Thu's high. May pull back to try to close gap.
Bars:
1 Strong bull trend bar, but just under res levels. (Prior April high, last Wed's high, prior ATH, recent ATH)
2 Bear doji, bad FT from strong bar 1 bull bar. TR PA.
3 FT bull trend bar, but likely bull leg in TR given weak bar 2 FT and close at bar 2 high, not above. May get a little more up and then deep PB.
4 Strong bull FT. Bulls getting stronger or buy vacuum up to res?
5 I like the strength of the bulls. I just don't like the location. Close is right at prior ATH. Could still be buy vacuum up.
6 Small bull bar at prior ATH. May get one more push up and then PB from parabolic wedge.
7 Big tail on bull bar. Just below ATH. Poss parabolic wedge top forming here.
8 Bull inside bar. Looks like still more up but may get sellers soon at ATH.
9 Bear iii. May have buyers above. But may not get too far before parabolic wedge reversal. We are right at ATH. Likely BB 9 bar bull micro channel for at least a small DT before a real rev.
10 Another bear inside bar, but likely BB for at least a small DT.
11 Small doji, BO (above old ATH) PB buy above, but just under ATH, may have SA. We are right in between old ATH and current ATH.
13 Poss DT with 10. May PB to EMA. But TTR=bad for stop entries.
15 Bull doji high in TTR just under ATH.
16 Bear doji, exact DT with 10 right at ATH. TTR lowers prob of stop entries.
17 BO attempt but tail=sellers. If does not reverse here, could grind up for a while in small PB bull trend.
18 No strong rejection here, just small bull inside bar. Looking more like small PB bull trend. Upper trend line above is around 2402.50. May get some PB from there.
19 Bear rev bar, micro DT but room to TL above. May need to hit it first.
21 Poss wedge with 10 and 17. One tick away from upper TL resistance. May be close enough or might need one more push to hit it.
23 Pulled back right to BO point. BO PB buy above, but bear bar. May get push up to upper TL res.
25 Small bull inside bar. OK signal bar for BO PB buy. May have sellers at upper TL and 21 high for larger wedge top with 10 and 21. May need to pull back to EMA first. We will see.
Daily: Yesterday broke to new ATH but found sellers above prior highs and reversed back down to close just slightly above the old ATH of 2398. This was a third push up and may be forming a wedge top.
60 min: Price formed a strong 2nd leg up to upper channel resistance in a 3 week broad bull channel, but we came one tick short of hitting the upper trend line. We may get one more push up after Y's strong BO to hit the TL and form a nested wedge top with the past 3 days.
ON: Price pulled back slightly, then rallied strongly. Looks like we will gap up slightly above Y's high, right at upper TL res. Sellers may come in here.
Bars:
1 Sellers coming in but not very strong, tail.
2 Strong FT selling for failed BO above Y's high, OK STC, I did. Risk of just going SW around Y's high, let's see.
3 Minimum acceptable FT selling of bear body. Prob SA. Room down to Y's channel low of 2397. I actually got in 2401.25 so move to 2397 would fill PT.
4 Strong bull outside bar. Not good for the bears. Let's see FT.
5 Strong bull FT for poss opening reversal. May be going more SW around Y's high here.
6 Bear inside bar for 2nd entry failed BO above Y's high. May have buyers not far below after strong 4 and 5.
7 Exited BE. Tail right at the 2 low tells me other STC bar 2 bears also got out.
9 FT selling but right at EMA and 4 low.
10 Small bull inside bar, DB with 4 at EMA. May have buyers above to get to open.
11 Did not trade above 10. Instead had bear breakout right to Y's close to close the gap. Next support below is 2397, Y's channel low.
12 FT down to support at Y's channel low.
13 Bull doji inside bar. Risk of 2nd leg trap to support here. Context is OK for bear trend though.
15 Strong bear FT to 60 min EMA and prior April high.
Daily: Yesterday reversed down from a 3 week wedge top and failed BO above the bull channel. The minimum target is the bottom of the channel. ON looks to be pulling back much more than that. Interestingly, I said on my 5/1 post that if the market reversed from 2404.25, it would put the measured move down (from the larger TR low of 2318) to the Dec 2016 close of 2231.75. Yesterday reversed from 2404.50 so that measured move to test the December close may be in play. It will be interesting to see if that happens or if the bears get foiled.
60 min: Yesterday the market formed a nested 4 day wedge top within a larger 3 week wedge top. Nested patterns give a larger likelihood of success. Looks like a big move down has already started ON. There is potential for a bear trend if there is a strong BO below the 3 week range.
