THREE SET UPS - futures io
futures io



THREE SET UPS


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Jeff Castille with 215 posts (429 thanks)
    2. looks_two cunparis with 146 posts (154 thanks)
    3. looks_3 shodson with 125 posts (211 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fat Tails with 73 posts (189 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 2.6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Jeff Castille with 2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 shodson with 1.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 cunparis with 1.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 223,997 views
    2. thumb_up 1,368 thanks given
    3. group 125 followers
    1. forum 1,073 posts
    2. attach_file 239 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

THREE SET UPS

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received

As some of you know I have been working for the last month on three set ups. I thought I'd take a minute and share the results of this effort. The win rate for these trades is over 90% in the last 30 days.

I have been trading CL using a 15 minute chart. These set ups are as follows: INSIDE BAR, OUTSIDE (ENGULFING) BAR AND REVERSAL BAR.

INSIDE BAR: This is the simplest set up of the three. If the current bar closes within the previous bar.....set a buy or sell stop 1 tick above/below the inside bar and put your stop at the opposite end +1 tick. The Reversals v4 indicator paints the inside bar yellow so you can't miss it. The psychology of the trade is that there is indecision in the market and you simply get on board when the market makes up its' mind which way it's going.

OUTSIDE BAR: On this set up you do NOT wait for bar close for your entry......you enter WHEN the previous bar is being engulfed. You still use a buy/sell stop and place your stop at the opposite end of the outside bar +1. The psychology of this trade is a CHANGE in sentiment.......first going one way and then the other.

REVERSAL BAR: This set up is a little tougher........the key is to recognize that this bar MUST occur AFTER an up/down move on higher volume. The wick on the bar (candle) must be approximately 2/3 of the entire bar. The psychology of this trade is that at extreme levels (after a good move) that prices will attract buyers/sellers.

NOTE: I didn't invent these trades........I actually read about them about a year ago and never really persued them until now. I didn't remember where I read about them but......thanks to Silvester 17 my memory has been refreshed !!! These basic set ups were presented by Malcolm Robinson ( a good trader and teacher.) He didn't invent them either ! lol These are well known Japanese Candlestick Patterns that have been around for centuries.

I'm posting yesterdays chart......which was good for 148 ticks on CL.

I've got Roonius working on an improved version of the Reversal v4 but I'll post the current version with the template that I am using.

If you have some experience trading these set ups I'd be interested in hearing from you.

Thanks, Jeff

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	CL 07-10  6_15_2010 (15 Min).jpg
Views:	4479
Size:	103.7 KB
ID:	15549  
Attached Files
Register to download File Type: xml REVERSALS WITH VOLUME.xml (34.8 KB, 761 views)
Register to download File Type: cs CMICurrentDayOHLV7.cs (44.7 KB, 320 views)
Register to download File Type: cs CMIPivotsDailyDashV7.cs (54.5 KB, 279 views)
Register to download File Type: cs jtEconNews.cs (23.5 KB, 247 views)
Register to download File Type: cs TradingTime.cs (6.1 KB, 345 views)
Register to download File Type: cs @BarTimer.cs (9.1 KB, 245 views)
Register to download File Type: cs @VolumeUpDown.cs (5.5 KB, 262 views)
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 95 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
alexc, Altean, Anagami, andewky, andy9775, AR01, arjfca, Arno66, aslan, Barrosco, bibulous, Big Mike, Boomer34, boomslang, Braulio, cahyono, cazimi, ckchau, Cloudy, ctbaran, CTGUY, cunparis, dar17, davedog, deepakmadan, dutchky, edakat, Eric j, evroom1, famed, fasttraxs, Fat Tails, field32, Fu510n, futurestrader1, Gabriyele, geronimo72, gtichauer, guedesjunior, hansjs, investman9, jamesdean46, jmacn, jstnbrg, jtrade, kami, kcmotrader, kctpac, Ken F, masterv, MCRENT, mdsvtr, MetalTrade, mgtrader, MKaiser, Mopaditi, mrBean888, Nicolas11, NJAMC, nola trader, PandaWarrior, paolfili, Patrick17, PiCoTrader, Popsicle, PowerM, project belgrade, rainbowchaser, redegenerated, revtrader, sandptrader, scarabofra, shodson, Silvester17, Stendall, SteveM, stevenvdv, stewk2, studio88, sunbim31, ticker, Tmanbone, Todd, tomasito, tradermark2009, ultratdr, vast, victhiry, VinceVirgil, wangwang, wgreenie, win3000, wuolong, xevian, Zoethecus

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Entries per day limit
EasyLanguage Programming
NT8 - Footprint Chart adding on code
NinjaTrader
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,871 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,886 received


Hi Jeff,

all three types of bars are very useful, but I would not call it a setup, unless you have additional criteria as a prerequisite and they become signal bars.

Inside bars

If an inside bar occurs in the middle of a trading range, it does not tell me much. Most of the inside bars are meaningless in a way that they do not show any significant price action. I actually prefer to use narrow range bars, I have coloured them on my charts. These bare, call them dojis, show a temporary pause in price action and you can eventually trade a breakout. They usuakky have good risk-to reward ratios, if you take them as signal bars. If you trade a long break out, you would enter a position on a buy stop above the doji and put you sell stop just below. The narrow range, means that your risk is low as well. For high probability setups you would want additional criteria, such as support and resistance and volume analysis.

Outside bars

Very nice setup, if the outside bar occurs in the direction of the prevailing trend and has trapped some countertraders. The trapped traders are rushing to exit their positions, which could extend the move. Enter near the stops of the countertraders. You would also need additional conditions here to define the setup, such as high volume and trend filter.

Reversal bars

This is a well known setup now, so there are many false setups. A real reversal bar (or two bars, known as a railway setup) should have high volume. If it does not it is just a trading range that fits exactly into the period chosen for the bar. Reversal bars can be valid signals if

- they occur outside a Bollinger Band or Keltner Channel
- they occur at a significant resistance
- they are a failed retest of a prior high or low (second entry)
- the reversal is a retracement / with-trend setup on a higher time frame

I would like to post some examples of successful and failed setups here, but I am not on my main machine, so will do this during the next days.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received


Fat Tails View Post
Hi Jeff,

all three types of bars are very useful, but I would not call it a setup, unless you have additional criteria as a prerequisite and they become signal bars.

Inside bars

If an inside bar occurs in the middle of a trading range, it does not tell me much. Most of the inside bars are meaningless in a way that they do not show any significant price action. I actually prefer to use narrow range bars, I have coloured them on my charts. These bare, call them dojis, show a temporary pause in price action and you can eventually trade a breakout. They usuakky have good risk-to reward ratios, if you take them as signal bars. If you trade a long break out, you would enter a position on a buy stop above the doji and put you sell stop just below. The narrow range, means that your risk is low as well. For high probability setups you would want additional criteria, such as support and resistance and volume analysis.

Outside bars

Very nice setup, if the outside bar occurs in the direction of the prevailing trend and has trapped some countertraders. The trapped traders are rushing to exit their positions, which could extend the move. Enter near the stops of the countertraders. You would also need additional conditions here to define the setup, such as high volume and trend filter.

Reversal bars

This is a well known setup now, so there are many false setups. A real reversal bar (or two bars, known as a railway setup) should have high volume. If it does not it is just a trading range that fits exactly into the period chosen for the bar. Reversal bars can be valid signals if

- they occur outside a Bollinger Band or Keltner Channel
- they occur at a significant resistance
- they are a failed retest of a prior high or low (second entry)
- the reversal is a retracement / with-trend setup on a higher time frame

I would like to post some examples of successful and failed setups here, but I am not on my main machine, so will do this during the next days.

Hey Fat Tails,

Thanks for your comments.

One of the reasons that I have been using the 15 minute chart is that it seems less prone to the failures that you are referring to. The 15 minute chart also keeps me from over trading.

Jeff

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,871 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,886 received

Have seen a number of false reversal bars on the 15-minute chart for ES, I am also using this timeframe.... will post them.


Jeff Castille View Post
Hey Fat Tails,

Thanks for your comments.

One of the reasons that I have been using the 15 minute chart is that it seems less prone to the failures that you are referring to. The 15 minute chart also keeps me from over trading.

Jeff


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,969 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,683 received

If you like inside and outside bars you might like this.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received


Fat Tails View Post
Have seen a number of false reversal bars on the 15-minute chart for ES, I am also using this timeframe.... will post them.

At a quick glance of the 15 minute chart of the ES.........(which I do not trade) I noticed that there were failures during the time period that is known as "GRIMREAPER" this is from 11:30 am to 12:00 PST......this is when the bond market is closing and NOT a good time to be trading the indexes. So I hope that your examples of "failed" trades will consider "time of day"

Also, I do NOT trade 15 minutes before or after the release on high priority news. I would venture to say that the reason many traders fail is that they do NOT give the proper respect to dangerous times to trade........at the open.....at the close.....either side of major news....lunch time in NYC.....bond market closing......Bernanke or Geithner speaking etc.

If examination of charts does NOT include "time of day" then the reasearch is worthless.

Jeff

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 11 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,603 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,120 given, 11,498 received

today I had 3 reversal trades that met all the necessary criteria. using a 5 min chart for ES. couldn't find a single loser.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 09-10  6_16_2010 (5 Min).jpg
Views:	2797
Size:	97.9 KB
ID:	15571  
Reply With Quote
The following 14 users say Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Marketdelta and Ninja
Broker: Velocity
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 670 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 528 received

i posted about this in another thread... you were i think were i was about 2 years ago...

I would get alot of false signals when trading using 5 min bars... so i switched to higher time frames, and that killed alot of false positives... Unfortunately, when you do that, you have to take alot more heat, and most of the times you'll get in towards the end of the move, unless you are disciplined enough to catch those high runners that happen only a few times a month... I suggest you switch to non-time based charts.... when you play around with it you'll notice that its actually better. Its still cuts out most of the noise, but you don't have to wait 15 min to see if its a failed reversal, or a hammer, or whatever pattern your looking at. ( I personally gave up on candlestick patterns since after backtesting i found very little positive results).
When market slows down, less bars form, so you stay away from chop. when markets move fast, you get more signals, and trade more since there are more opporutnity's....

Hope this helps

Reply With Quote
The following 12 users say Thank You to Michael.H for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received



Michael.H View Post
i posted about this in another thread... you were i think were i was about 2 years ago...

I would get alot of false signals when trading using 5 min bars... so i switched to higher time frames, and that killed alot of false positives... Unfortunately, when you do that, you have to take alot more heat, and most of the times you'll get in towards the end of the move, unless you are disciplined enough to catch those high runners that happen only a few times a month... I suggest you switch to non-time based charts.... when you play around with it you'll notice that its actually better. Its still cuts out most of the noise, but you don't have to wait 15 min to see if its a failed reversal, or a hammer, or whatever pattern your looking at. ( I personally gave up on candlestick patterns since after backtesting i found very little positive results).
When market slows down, less bars form, so you stay away from chop. when markets move fast, you get more signals, and trade more since there are more opporutnity's....

Hope this helps

Hey Michael,

I would be curious to find out ......when you switched from time based charts to non time based charts......which market were you trading and did you switch to tick charts? Did you try the candlestick patterns on CL?

Jeff

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > THREE SET UPS


Last Updated on May 15, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts