THREE SET UPS - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


THREE SET UPS
Updated: Views / Replies:155,522 / 1,073
Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:243

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 243  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

THREE SET UPS

  #931 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


cunparis View Post
I think entry triggers are great because we can relax a bit while waiting for the trigger and potentially monitor several markets. But once it triggers, in my opinion, discretion is required. The reason is it's very difficult to have an exit trigger. Many edges only have a few ticks net edge (many only have 1 tick net edge). If discretion can get an extra tick out of it then that can increase the profit by 50% (or double it).

I give you an example: When I scalp, I look to get as much as I can. But if price stops moving in my way I'm out. Sometimes I get a couple ticks and sometimes more. But I try not to let it come back to my entry.

Now if I tried to automate that I'd have to pick a target and that would be making a lot of sacrifices. Let's say the target is 8 ticks, market goes 6 ticks in my direction and then pulls back 3. I can get out with +3 ticks. An automated system would get out with 0 assuming a "breakeven stop" is triggered. Now let's say the market moves 12 ticks and then pulls back 2. I could get out with 10, once again beating the automated method.

I quit messing with automation for this reason. I remember back when I was backtesting another strategy with Jeff, I optimized and came up with an optimal target that was bigger than Jeff's +8/+16. I forget what it was but I told Jeff that it's better to wait for the "optimal" target. I don't remember his exact words but it was something like "just because it has hit that in the past doesn't mean that it'll continue doing so". Which turned out to be exactly right. Over the next few weeks the "optimal" wasn't optimal.

So to conclude, backtesting entries can be good to find entry triggers. But in my opinion, discretion should be used once in the trade.

I hope you found this post useful. I wish several years ago I had known this and spent my time learning to trade with discretion instead of programming & backtesting.

These are great comments, and a very viable way to trade, but it may not be suited for everybody. I consider this style favorable to those that need to frequently feel "right". With this approach you probably have a very high win rate, but you probably don't get very many large runners that are winners, except for those times where the market goes parabolic.

I'm interested, if you enter, and immediately it doesn't move in your direction, or even starts moving against you, do you then get out as well for a small loss? Or do you wait for the stop loss to hit? I'm just curious as to how much room you give a trade before bailing on it.

Many people make good money with low win rates, because they are holding on for the big moves. It just all depends on what style fits your personality, and that's why there's no "one size fits all" trading style. As for my IB backtesting, I'm finding best results with targets about 1.7-2.0x the size of my stop loss, so I don't mind having a < 50% win rate. Also, on CL, checkout out IBs on the 20min time frame, works better than the 15min, per my testing.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #932 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


shodson View Post
As for my IB backtesting, I'm finding best results with targets about 1.7-2.0x the size of my stop loss, so I don't mind having a < 50% win rate. Also, on CL, checkout out IBs on the 20min time frame, works better than the 15min, per my testing.

Also, I like the 1hr time frame on 6E best, London hours only though

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #933 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received



shodson View Post
These are great comments, and a very viable way to trade, but it may not be suited for everybody. I consider this style favorable to those that need to frequently feel "right". With this approach you probably have a very high win rate, but you probably don't get very many large runners that are winners, except for those times where the market goes parabolic.

I'm interested, if you enter, and immediately it doesn't move in your direction, or even starts moving against you, do you then get out as well for a small loss? Or do you wait for the stop loss to hit? I'm just curious as to how much room you give a trade before bailing on it.

Many people make good money with low win rates, because they are holding on for the big moves. It just all depends on what style fits your personality, and that's why there's no "one size fits all" trading style. As for my IB backtesting, I'm finding best results with targets about 1.7-2.0x the size of my stop loss, so I don't mind having a < 50% win rate. Also, on CL, checkout out IBs on the 20min time frame, works better than the 15min, per my testing.

I definitely agree with your point of view. That's the key to trading, everyone has to find what works for them. There's no single way or no secret setup. To answer your questions, my stop depends on what kind of setup I'm entering on. Some have 3 ticks on ES while others 6-8 ticks. On crude that's the one I just bail if it doesn't go my way. Keep in mind I'm going for scalps right now so I'm not worried about big runners. They're hard to get and I find just getting 1 pt reliably can yield more than getting that one big runner and stopping out on all the others. My goal is to get consistent with 1 contract with tight stops getting 4 ticks and then I can add a 2nd and go for 6-8 ticks. In fact I'm in that phase now trading bund & ES with 2 contracts. Then when that is consistent I can add a 3rd and go for more on the best setups.

In my opinion context is the most important thing in trading and just taking inside bars without regards to context is not going to be optimal. And context is very discretionary. So if we're balanced or imbalanced I'll trade differently.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to cunparis for this post:
 
  #934 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


cunparis View Post
I definitely agree with your point of view. That's the key to trading, everyone has to find what works for them. There's no single way or no secret setup. To answer your questions, my stop depends on what kind of setup I'm entering on. Some have 3 ticks on ES while others 6-8 ticks. On crude that's the one I just bail if it doesn't go my way. Keep in mind I'm going for scalps right now so I'm not worried about big runners. They're hard to get and I find just getting 1 pt reliably can yield more than getting that one big runner and stopping out on all the others. My goal is to get consistent with 1 contract with tight stops getting 4 ticks and then I can add a 2nd and go for 6-8 ticks. In fact I'm in that phase now trading bund & ES with 2 contracts. Then when that is consistent I can add a 3rd and go for more on the best setups.

In my opinion context is the most important thing in trading and just taking inside bars without regards to context is not going to be optimal. And context is very discretionary. So if we're balanced or imbalanced I'll trade differently.

For scalping, being "right" frequently is definitely very important.

As far as context goes, it definitely helps, but the reason I think you can still succeed without context is that an IB is a pause, and most of the time the next move of the market is 50/50 and if your loss is x and your profit target is y where y>x, on a 50/50 setup, over time, you make money. The key is time frame: how long of a pause is a good pause? It has to be long enough to allow larger time frame traders to push the market in the next direction. If it's too short then your moves won't have enough energy behind them to matter.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #935 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Reversals

I've been looking at reversals for a while, and for these you definitely need context. I figure I need at least 3 lower lows to precede a long reversal bar, or 3 higher highs to precede a short reversal bar. Here's a SIM trade I took on CL today, though it didn't work out, but almost did. Also, as far as volume goes, it seems that if the reversal bar has higher volume than the previous bar, it doesn't work out as well. Otherwise if you get big volume in your trend bars and you get a nice reversal bar with less volume that those tend to work out better. What think ye of my thinking on this trade?

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #936 (permalink)
Elite Member
Italy (IT)
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ATAS, R|Trader, NT8
Broker/Data: Rithmic
Favorite Futures: CL, Brent, GC, TF
 
LukeGeniol's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,501 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 408 given, 974 received


shodson View Post
I've been looking at reversals for a while, and for these you definitely need context. I figure I need at least 3 lower lows to precede a long reversal bar, or 3 higher highs to precede a short reversal bar. Here's a SIM trade I took on CL today, though it didn't work out, but almost did. Also, as far as volume goes, it seems that if the reversal bar has higher volume than the previous bar, it doesn't work out as well. Otherwise if you get big volume in your trend bars and you get a nice reversal bar with less volume that those tend to work out better. What think ye of my thinking on this trade?

This is good, but the SL is better some ticks under the low of the reversal entry bar, and it would work.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to LukeGeniol for this post:
 
  #937 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


LukeGeniol View Post
This is good, but the SL is better some ticks under the low of the reversal entry bar, and it would work.

I thought I had my stop below that wick, but it looks like it was filled right at it or even just above it!?!?!

Reply With Quote
 
  #938 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York, NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: OptionVue
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: RUT, SPX options
 
Bookworm's Avatar
 
Posts: 157 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 144 received


cunparis View Post
We want to trade the most liquid month, so when the new month becomes more liquid that's when we change. one can trade a less liquid month but you're more likely to have slippage and violent price moves against your position.

Yes agree 100% which is why I said "should" and not "is". The link I posted simply makes it easier to know when to start looking for the rollover.

Reply With Quote
 
  #939 (permalink)
Elite Member
North Bend, WA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Tradestation, C#
Broker/Data: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: None yet
 
BDawg's Avatar
 
Posts: 15 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 63 given, 11 received

I just wanted to say a big THANKS to all who have contributed to this thread.
I'm gonna try to code some of this up in Tradestation.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to BDawg for this post:
 
  #940 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OANDA
Favorite Futures: EUR/USD
 
Posts: 20 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 19 given, 5 received



cunparis View Post
I definitely agree with your point of view. That's the key to trading, everyone has to find what works for them. There's no single way or no secret setup. To answer your questions, my stop depends on what kind of setup I'm entering on. Some have 3 ticks on ES while others 6-8 ticks. On crude that's the one I just bail if it doesn't go my way. Keep in mind I'm going for scalps right now so I'm not worried about big runners. They're hard to get and I find just getting 1 pt reliably can yield more than getting that one big runner and stopping out on all the others. My goal is to get consistent with 1 contract with tight stops getting 4 ticks and then I can add a 2nd and go for 6-8 ticks. In fact I'm in that phase now trading bund & ES with 2 contracts. Then when that is consistent I can add a 3rd and go for more on the best setups.

In my opinion context is the most important thing in trading and just taking inside bars without regards to context is not going to be optimal. And context is very discretionary. So if we're balanced or imbalanced I'll trade differently.

This is exactly the point, have to view every setup in the context of bigger picture, with the connection of news and other fundmentals

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > THREE SET UPS

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
UPS opinions? Poocher Tech Support 45 July 4th, 2017 12:28 PM
Very basic scalper set up Xzap Traders Hideout 25 November 18th, 2013 09:39 AM
ES indicators, set ups exits kctpac Emini Index Futures Trading 18 December 16th, 2011 03:07 PM
Home Depot Earnings Beat Forecasts, Ups Dividend Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 February 22nd, 2011 08:00 AM
What is the perfect set up? h4cked Reviews of Brokers and Data Feeds 8 December 11th, 2010 03:54 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:17 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.18 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.81.154