I don't think the reversals indicator would be of much use on anything other than minute charts. But........you can try. The Range bars would NOT be able to show an inside/outside bar as all the bars are the same.
Last edited by Jeff Castille; June 21st, 2010 at 06:33 PM.
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I'm still using Beta 16 so maybe that is why the indicator doesn't show up. I always like to wait at least a week after ninja releases a new beta before I install it and replace something that is working pretty well for me.
I just went to the NT7 beta forum and saw that people were having some memory issues with beta 17. Are you having any problems with beta 17?
No problem with my NT7beta17 setups. I always upgrade to the latest beta immediately NT notifies me and I've had no issues. In any case, I run my Windows XP/NT on my Mac's MAC OS X/VMware Fusion environment.
Great work Jeff. I caught one of those myself, got +8 and stopped out breakeven. Then I realized my IQFeed continuous contract was july but I was trading august. oops. by the time I got it fixed I missed another one. I count 11 total trades including premarket. And I think all 11 would be at least +8. Amazing.
I know the day I start doing this with real money will be the day it stops out a few times.. hehe..
sorry for the poor chart, market delta has the worst drawing tools I've ever seen. QuoteTracker was better..
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I quite enjoyed this little article by Jeffrey Kennedy, it makes sense. The wonderful thing about looking at single bars is that the noise is already filtered out and you only get the essentials.
Want to post here some ideas with respect to inside bars.
An inside bar is a 1-bar consolidation period that follows an expansion bar, which is a 1-period trending bar. However, the trending periods are shorter in time than the consolidation periods, so you may typically expect more than one "inside" bar after a trend move. There are different variations of inside bars:
Single inside bar
As described in the posts Low>Low and High<High. Means that the value shift that occured during the continuous auction, which is described by the prior bar, is now being tested.
Arrow as described by Jeffrey Kennedy
An inside bar on a timeframe x 2, with reduced volatility of bar 4 compared to bar 3.
Double inside bar
An inside bar followed by an inside bar.
Inside close bars (see charts below)
Usually an expansion bar is followed by several inside close bars. These bars are testing the upper and lower limit of the range. The 15 min ES charts below for last Friday and today uses an indicator that
- identifies upthrusting and downthrusting expansion bars (lime and red)
- trading ranges created by these bars (magenta)
- inside close bars -> all other bars (doji -> white, upclose -> hollow green, downclose -> hollow red)
If you count the bars, you will find that Friday's ETH session had 6 upthrust, 6 downthrust bars and 81 inside close bars. If you take the day session only, there were 3 upthrust, 3 downthrust and 21 inside close bars. This would yield you 22% trending and 78% ranging price action. Friday was a terrible day, where price went nowhere.
Today, as per the chart shown, there were 4 downthrust, no upthrust bar and 15 inside close bars after the open at 9:30 AM, so the percentage comes down to 21% trending and 79% ranging bars. A trending day still has mostly inside close bars, just the thrust bars are all heading in the same direction.
I remember a huge quantity of those. Al Brooks suggests to trade or to fade the breakout, depending on where it occurs. You can fade it, if it is a final trading range that already broke the trendline, so the breakout is the test of the high or low. I also like to fade them, if the trading range follows a churn bar located outside or at the border of my Keltner Channel.
The popgun from Jeffrey Kennedy
Is similar to the failed break-out from the final trading range. The popgun, requires that there is a double inside bar, the (ii) or (iii) approach just looks at low range bars with a small body (dojis), but otherwise the popgun is a failure of a breakout from a trading range, as described by Al Brooks.
How to trade?
You first need a setup bar. This is the bar - or in case of the arrow, the 2 bars - that precedes the inside bar. The setup bar establishes a trading range. The inside bar signals reduced volatility. Usually it will take several bars to dissolve the trading range. Now you have two options for the trigger
-> agressive entry, a few ticks above of below the last inside or narrow range bar
-> conservative entry, when a bar has closed x % outside of the trading range (percentage of the width of the trading range)
In both cases price action can quickly revert and you may get trapped. This is the popgun setup, which is a failed breakout. For some instruments - in particular ES - I have suffered failures of failed failures with the result that I got whipsawed several times.
So the setup is only tradeable when using some filters.
- direction and maturity of the underlying trend (linreg indicator would do this)
- an idea whether volatiliy might rise or not, depending on news and time of the day
- mean reversion (I use Keltner channels -> I do not trade a long setup if the market is already extremely overbought)
- volume analysis to spot churning and potential reversals
Last edited by Fat Tails; June 21st, 2010 at 04:07 PM.
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