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Your targets are usually smaller than mine, I'm targeting the bar size so my risk/reward = 1.0.
r = High - Low (the size or range of the IB)
stop loss = -r (other side of IB)
profit target = m * r, where m=1
Now below I've tested different values of m for CL-03 through CL-09 (most of 2010) to get the avg win / avg loss over 100%, 1.5 looks good-ish, at least my expectancy exceeds my risk, but my win rates are hovering around 50%. Some sort of stop adjustment or trailing stop would help but for this test I don't adjust the stops no matter how much profit is achieved.
It's interesting to note that in testing different multiples the bigger it got the worse it works, though we often see 100+ tick moves in CL. This just confirms that IBs rarely are the beginnings of meaningful moves, rather usually a bridge between moves (pauses).
RTH (6:00am - 11:30am Pacific)
No lunch trades (9am-10am Pacific)
No news filters
IBs that are NR4 and have BetterVolume's "Normal Volume"
(I said in a previous post I was testing "Low Volume" but that was inaccurate, I tested "Normal Volume" which is usually low volume, but low volume is usually lower and occur much less frequently)
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It seems there's a sweet spot between 1.0 and 2.0, but maybe less than 1.0 (what you do Jeff, but with discretion) is worth looking at. That's next...
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
Shodson, what is the new filter you are using? Is this tied in with the post a few pages ago about the HVC bars? Better volume?
Thanks for your work.
I think another filter could be using the DM(14) as well. Jeff mentioned this at one stage. I have noticed that it will help with those IB's that fail. If we are in a trending down day and an IB forms and the 1st trade is a long, look at the DM(14) it will usually be telling you a short will only work. Just an observation.
Regards
How so? So if I have a DM up and red is above blue only take shorts? I've looked at that as a reference on a 60 min chart but trading the 15min chart. Also, ADX must be rising, so primarily the IBs are pauses and we're looking for continuation trades if using the DM in this way. I haven't tested it but just eyeballing looks good but the eyes deceive
Is that how you recommend using DM, or do you recommend some other way?
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
