THREE SET UPS - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


THREE SET UPS
Updated: Views / Replies:155,350 / 1,073
Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:243

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 243  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

THREE SET UPS

  #781 (permalink)
Elite Member
Northern California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,785 given, 3,279 received

6e inside bar all winners

Here's today's 6E 15 minute chart. Notice all 4 inside bars that occur during trade zones are winners. The second inside bar worked but was a little close to news.

So what's it going to be ???? 5 minute or 15 minute?

Attached Thumbnails
THREE SET UPS-6e-09-10-8_4_2010-15-min-.jpg  
Reply With Quote
 
  #782 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
ny
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: nt
Broker/Data: mirus
Favorite Futures: eur
 
Posts: 39 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 8 given, 9 received

I think that anyone that consider this IB as a trading setup should first read this:

TraderFeed: Toby Crabel And The Epistemology Of Trading Expertise

And than go and read:

https://futures.io/journals-daily-charts-chart-reading/4183-three-set-ups-75.html

cunparis post # 746: "In fact in just 2 days it almost wiped out an entire month of gains"


When you SL/DD is a lot larger than you PT this is usualy the end results. Its not an "IF" its a "WHEN".

If your IB is 25 ticks, you try to get 8 ticks and your SL is 25, how many trades you need to win just to BE after a losing trade? (So lets say you are the greatest trader with 70/30 win/loss. Do the math and see how long it will take you to refund your account...)

Same story as adding to a losing trade to get a "better" entry cost, its the when not the if.

Sorry to break the party......If trading was so easy as the 15 min IB, no one will be on the losing side in this industry.....

Reply With Quote
 
  #783 (permalink)
Elite Member
Northern California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,785 given, 3,279 received



ikew View Post
I think that anyone that consider this IB as a trading setup should first read this:

TraderFeed: Toby Crabel And The Epistemology Of Trading Expertise

And than go and read:

https://futures.io/journals-daily-charts-chart-reading/4183-three-set-ups-75.html

cunparis post # 746: "In fact in just 2 days it almost wiped out an entire month of gains"


When you SL/DD is a lot larger than you PT this is usualy the end results. Its not an "IF" its a "WHEN".

If your IB is 25 ticks, you try to get 8 ticks and your SL is 25, how many trades you need to win just to BE after a losing trade? (So lets say you are the greatest trader with 70/30 win/loss. Do the math and see how long it will take you to refund your account...)

Same story as adding to a losing trade to get a "better" entry cost, its the when not the if.

Sorry to break the party......If trading was so easy as the 15 min IB, no one will be on the losing side in this industry.....


Sadly your ignorance is talking here.........if you had bothered to actually read this thread and understand the money mangement you would not be so ignorant.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
 
  #784 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
ny
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: nt
Broker/Data: mirus
Favorite Futures: eur
 
Posts: 39 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 8 given, 9 received

I did read it all. MM is NOT to cover or a replacment for a losing strategy in the long term.....But, hey, what do I know...Its just my free opinion....

that why I refered to: cunparis post # 746: "In fact in just 2 days it almost wiped out an entire month of gains"

and to: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/toby-crabel-and-epistemology-of-trading.html that knows a bit more than me.


Good luck.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ikew for this post:
 
  #785 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received


ikew View Post

And than go and read:

https://futures.io/journals-daily-charts-chart-reading/4183-three-set-ups-75.html

cunparis post # 746: "In fact in just 2 days it almost wiped out an entire month of gains"


When you SL/DD is a lot larger than you PT this is usualy the end results. Its not an "IF" its a "WHEN".

If your IB is 25 ticks, you try to get 8 ticks and your SL is 25, how many trades you need to win just to BE after a losing trade? (So lets say you are the greatest trader with 70/30 win/loss. Do the math and see how long it will take you to refund your account...)

Same story as adding to a losing trade to get a "better" entry cost, its the when not the if.

Sorry to break the party......If trading was so easy as the 15 min IB, no one will be on the losing side in this industry.....

I think you have very valid points. I said pretty much the same thing "not if but when" when I did my backtesting but I'm too lazy to find the post. I said a drawdown will be very likely and how many people could sit through it without throwing in the towel? I threw in the towel after one bad day!

In my experience, I've always done well making little steps and then it was the big losses that would kill me. Sometimes wiping out a large % of my account and setting me back. Not only financially but psychologically as well. Some talk about the black swan. I'm talking about little black ducklings. Cute and furry and they sneak up on you. What some don't realize is this is a game of numbers and there are millions of combinations. The guy who started the IB trade 6 months ago made a ton and can sit through a drawdown. The guy who is unlucky enough to start the day of the drawdown is going to get screwed big time. I must be unlucky because every time I find a pattern I can backtest, it seems to stop working. I must be slow. By the time I find it everyone has.

This IB trade is not a secret. The unattractive R:R has probably convinced most traders to pass it up. That doesn't mean one can't trade it and make money.

I consistently win money at poker. I almost never lose. What's my secret? I play $0.02/$0.04 limit hold'em. The good players don't want to play for pennies and so it's full of mostly newbies. So just because the pros pass up on something doesn't mean it's not bad, it just means they found something better.

Now I don't believe one needs a reward much greater than the risk. The market is very efficient for this. Not saying it doesn't exist but it's elusive. Even if you say "I risk 4 and have my target at 16 so it's 4:1 good trade" no not exactly. The percentage of your target getting hit has to be > than 25%. And that's usually the dealbreaker.

I think a R:R ratio around 1:1 is not a bad place to start. Then a win rate > 50% is the goal. Once that is achieved a second target can be added that is say 1.25 or 1.5 the risk. And go slowly.

btw here's the equity curve for my automated strategy:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I re-optimized without any breakeven stop (I think the breakeven stop trigger & offset (2 variables) could make a bit of curve fitting). I got the same curve & same result. 15 tick target is still optimal.

Now I'm not saying those trading this can't or aren't making money. Using +8/+16 could be more profitable, I just couldn't prove it. But my confidence level drops a bit when I can't backtest something profitable on a mechanical strategy.

If I were to persue this inside bar strategy, I would use the 15min in conjunction with a smaller tick chart. I'd try to get in on the breakout before the 15min breakout. Take a smaller breakout. I'd also use a tighter stop based on the tick chart. That's a bit how I was trading it, I was watching a 200 tick chart with the 15min. I trail stop that way. And that can reduce risk but sometimes it goes 1 tick and then runs the other way and it's not possible to trail. So that's just my idea.

So good points about R:R. I like to give my trades more room, sometimes too much on ES. That will be a problem when trading larger size. So I'm working on determining the optimal stop. It's a work in progress.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to cunparis for this post:
 
  #786 (permalink)
Administrator: Retired Backtester
 Vendor: speedytradingservers.com 
Rennes France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IB/Kinetick
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
sam028's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,366 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 3,573 given, 3,982 received


ikew View Post
I did read it all. MM is NOT to cover or a replacment for a losing strategy in the long term.....But, hey, what do I know...Its just my free opinion....

Good luck.

@ikew comments make sense, imvho, the RR ratio is very not good.

Maybe in adjusting the first target, no 8 ticks every time, but a target which is correlated with the volatility ?
I'm sure someone has already wrote an ATS for this, as it's not very hard to do, maybe we can have some backtests results ?

Success requires no deodorant! (Sun Tzu)
Reply With Quote
 
  #787 (permalink)
Elite Member
Northern California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,785 given, 3,279 received


ikew View Post
cunparis said "In fact in just 2 days it almost wiped out an entire month of gains."

That is what I was talking about when your R/R is 8/25 and not 1/1.5

Again.........with reference to Cunparis.........he was making up his own money mangement......which is fine.......it just didn't work very well.

Many of the trades that he lost on were winners for me !

I wish you would just read the damn posts. Cunparis clearly stated that the reason for his failure was more HIM than the set up.........READ.....READ......READ.....

Learn about the concept of scaling out.

Reply With Quote
 
  #788 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received


ikew View Post
When you SL/DD is a lot larger than you PT this is usualy the end results. Its not an "IF" its a "WHEN".

Same story as adding to a losing trade to get a "better" entry cost, its the when not the if.

ikew - Your post inspired me to post this post in my journal. It's something I have been working on for a while now.

Reply With Quote
 
  #789 (permalink)
Elite Member
Northern California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,785 given, 3,279 received


ikew View Post
I did read it all. MM is NOT to cover or a replacment for a losing strategy in the long term.....But, hey, what do I know...Its just my free opinion....

that why I refered to: cunparis post # 746: "In fact in just 2 days it almost wiped out an entire month of gains"

and to: TraderFeed: Toby Crabel And The Epistemology Of Trading Expertise that knows a bit more than me.


Good luck.

If you read it all you have a comprehension problem.

Reply With Quote
 
  #790 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received



Jeff Castille View Post
Again.........with reference to Cunparis.........he was making up his own money mangement......which is fine.......it just didn't work very well.

Many of the trades that he lost on were winners for me !

I wish you would just read the damn posts. Cunparis clearly stated that the reason for his failure was more HIM than the set up.........READ.....READ......READ.....

Learn about the concept of scaling out.

Yes, my decision to focus on ES was mainly because this strategy needs either a bigger tolerance for risk or some discretion to reduce risk. I lost more on one day trading crude than I had the entire month on ES.

I had a choice between :

- trading only an ES system with a profit factor of 8 (my stats are posted in my journal)
- trading the ES system with a crude system that has PF of 1.19

Since trading crude had a negative impact on my ES results, the choice was obvious.

Now the 1.19 PF is due to the way I traded it. I took some losers that Jeff didn't take. I went for 15 ticks when he was out breakeven. I sometimes cut my profit short while he got 8+16. So as I previously wrote it's not a reflection on the method but on how it was working for me.

At this point, I'm much more concerned with reducing my risk and having very little losing days than I am making a ton of money. The reason is with low risk and very few losing days one can trade size and make unlimited money.

Here is my ES stats for July. Only one losing day and it was $100. This is very important when trading size.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Now here it is for my crude IB results:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


4 losing days, which is still OK but the magnitude of the losses was a bit difficult.

Everyone has to make their own decisions. I share my results so people can learn from my experience. I'm lucky in that I finished my crude IB experiment with a few hundred dollars in profit. I hope others will share their experiences. from the lack of posts it seems no one is trading it so I'm not sure all this discussion is that useful.

And again, my results are unique to me. Unless one trades this like a robot, everyone will have different results. On my last losing day Jeff didn't take 2 of the trades that were losers. So discretion can have a HUGE impact on the performance. Had I not taken those I would have done much better for the month. A simple decision to not take a few setups would have changed everything. And that was another reason for me to focus on ES because I can't make these discretionary decisions on two markets at the same time and still be efficient.

So all I can do is show my results and also the mechanical results of the backtesting and let everyone make their choice. I have never seen a mechanical method that was profitable without any discretion. I do not believe such a thing exists. If it did we'd automate it and drive Ferrari's.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to cunparis for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > THREE SET UPS

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
UPS opinions? Poocher Tech Support 45 July 4th, 2017 12:28 PM
Very basic scalper set up Xzap Traders Hideout 25 November 18th, 2013 09:39 AM
ES indicators, set ups exits kctpac Emini Index Futures Trading 18 December 16th, 2011 03:07 PM
Home Depot Earnings Beat Forecasts, Ups Dividend Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 February 22nd, 2011 08:00 AM
What is the perfect set up? h4cked Reviews of Brokers and Data Feeds 8 December 11th, 2010 03:54 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:38 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-15 in 0.51 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.90.92.204