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THREE SET UPS
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THREE SET UPS

  #761 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco Bay Area
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Has anyone back-tested trading 5 minute IBs in the first hour and the last hour?
How about setting smaller targets (like 5 ticks) for the first unit?

I have noticed that invariable the break of a 5 minute range, typically results in at least a few ticks over shoot before a reversal.

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  #762 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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Fat Tails View Post
I also agree with your statement that the IB system is not as simple as it is shown here.

Crabel's ORB is not a "system". It's an observation about market behavior. He says in his books that one can use it in their trading but that it shouldn't just be traded as is. Basically he ran statistics and it's up to the trader to determine how to use them.

I use a similar concept for ES except I don't define the ORB by time or a set # of ticks/pts. I just observe what the market does after the open, which way it goes, the strength, where the professionals are active, etc.

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  #763 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
ny
 
Futures Experience: None
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Broker/Data: mirus
Favorite Futures: eur
 
Posts: 39 since Oct 2009
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cunparis,

Yes. IB by itself may be a reflector of the market mode but not the final trading method.
I saw from the records you posted that some ES trades are open for lomg time. What is the max DD you hold the position with?

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  #764 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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ikew View Post
cunparis,

Yes. IB by itself may be a reflector of the market mode but not the final trading method.
I saw from the records you posted that some ES trades are open for lomg time. What is the max DD you hold the position with?

What do you consider a "long time"?

I don't really have a set limit for DD. If I'm convinced I'm wrong then I'm out. Usually price will pullback and give me an opportunity to scratch the trade or exit with a small loss.

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  #765 (permalink)
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Long time as hours. What the SL for ES that you will hold? Will you also hold the open position during eco news?

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  #766 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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ikew View Post
Long time as hours. What the SL for ES that you will hold? Will you also hold the open position during eco news?

Hours is pretty rare and I most likely should have stopped out and then looked for a re-entry. I'm working on this. Before I'd stop out too soon and when I reviewed all my trades I had too many trades which only served to feed my broker. Now I may be at the other extreme. This is where my daily bias comes into play (I go over the daily bias on my blog). If price moves against me let's say up and I'm short, but my bias is short, then I don't mind holding it.

I don't have a set stop on ES I prefer to just get out when I'm wrong. This is a work in progress. This month so far I have only 4 losers in 98 trades on ES. That tells me I'm not trying hard enough. I'm being too conservative. So that's one thing I want to improve for next month. I want to stop out and re-enter at a better price. Be more patient and risk a small drawdown in order to go for the bigger gains. I'm making progress but there's a lot of room for improvement.

I forgot the news question: I avoid the news. if my position is open and I'm confident I"ll hold it, maybe with a breakeven stop. But I don't put on trades before news (say 10 minutes before) and I wait at least a few minutes after. Jeff is the one who taught me the importance of avoiding news in the AYN thread.

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  #767 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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IMHO one of the reasons yesterday had a lot of 1-2 tick breakouts is because crude was at a turning point. It was trying to test the highs and there was distribution going on yesterday. In the past I have noticed that choppy periods often occur at market turns. The reason is accumulation & distribution keep prices from making big moves.

I'm not an expert at crude but my bias is down.

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  #768 (permalink)
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Why dont we all look at the short term trading as being in a train station (Like the Blue RER somewhere in Paris)

We want to travel to see Paris. We dont know which train will come first, south or north. Why not just to read what is happning RIGHT now. The north train is getting into the station, so lets go long as we go with the CURRENT momentum. If we dont like it later on, we can always get of @ the next station and take the other side.

This way, we will always be on the moving side, watching the local station for a small SL if needed and keep riding the trains all day long to wherever they go with no personal bais.

In my opinion, the IB bar is when we are standing at the station, dont know which train will come first. The market momentum may dictate the direction and not a 1 or 2 ticks breakout that may be just the train noise from far away.

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  #769 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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ikew View Post
Why dont we all look at the short term trading as being in a train station (Like the Blue RER somewhere in Paris)

We want to travel to see Paris. We dont know which train will come first, south or north. Why not just to read what is happning RIGHT now. The north train is getting into the station, so lets go long as we go with the CURRENT momentum. If we dont like it later on, we can always get of @ the next station and take the other side.

This way, we will always be on the moving side, watching the local station for a small SL if needed and keep riding the trains all day long to wherever they go with no personal bais.

In my opinion, the IB bar is when we are standing at the station, dont know which train will come first. The market momentum may dictate the direction and not a 1 or 2 ticks breakout that may be just the train noise from far away.

Good analogy but if I'm going to st. michel I prefer to wait for the RER that goes to St. Michel.

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  #770 (permalink)
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Right, but we dont know and dont care where we going, up or down, St. Michael or CDG as long as we are MOVING.

So lets just move with the CURRENT train wherever it goes and book the ticks as the mileadge.

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