Crabel's ORB is not a "system". It's an observation about market behavior. He says in his books that one can use it in their trading but that it shouldn't just be traded as is. Basically he ran statistics and it's up to the trader to determine how to use them.
I use a similar concept for ES except I don't define the ORB by time or a set # of ticks/pts. I just observe what the market does after the open, which way it goes, the strength, where the professionals are active, etc.
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Yes. IB by itself may be a reflector of the market mode but not the final trading method.
I saw from the records you posted that some ES trades are open for lomg time. What is the max DD you hold the position with?
Hours is pretty rare and I most likely should have stopped out and then looked for a re-entry. I'm working on this. Before I'd stop out too soon and when I reviewed all my trades I had too many trades which only served to feed my broker. Now I may be at the other extreme. This is where my daily bias comes into play (I go over the daily bias on my blog). If price moves against me let's say up and I'm short, but my bias is short, then I don't mind holding it.
I don't have a set stop on ES I prefer to just get out when I'm wrong. This is a work in progress. This month so far I have only 4 losers in 98 trades on ES. That tells me I'm not trying hard enough. I'm being too conservative. So that's one thing I want to improve for next month. I want to stop out and re-enter at a better price. Be more patient and risk a small drawdown in order to go for the bigger gains. I'm making progress but there's a lot of room for improvement.
I forgot the news question: I avoid the news. if my position is open and I'm confident I"ll hold it, maybe with a breakeven stop. But I don't put on trades before news (say 10 minutes before) and I wait at least a few minutes after. Jeff is the one who taught me the importance of avoiding news in the AYN thread.
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IMHO one of the reasons yesterday had a lot of 1-2 tick breakouts is because crude was at a turning point. It was trying to test the highs and there was distribution going on yesterday. In the past I have noticed that choppy periods often occur at market turns. The reason is accumulation & distribution keep prices from making big moves.
Why dont we all look at the short term trading as being in a train station (Like the Blue RER somewhere in Paris)
We want to travel to see Paris. We dont know which train will come first, south or north. Why not just to read what is happning RIGHT now. The north train is getting into the station, so lets go long as we go with the CURRENT momentum. If we dont like it later on, we can always get of @ the next station and take the other side.
This way, we will always be on the moving side, watching the local station for a small SL if needed and keep riding the trains all day long to wherever they go with no personal bais.
In my opinion, the IB bar is when we are standing at the station, dont know which train will come first. The market momentum may dictate the direction and not a 1 or 2 ticks breakout that may be just the train noise from far away.