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THREE SET UPS
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Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:243

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THREE SET UPS

  #731 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
So your telling me that you don't care about risk : reward or your win rate!

No, I'm not.

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  #732 (permalink)
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Ok so why do you care about it?

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  #733 (permalink)
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yes. 1 to 1.5 max.

If you looking to gain 8 ticks the max risk is no more than 12, better 8.

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  #734 (permalink)
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ikew View Post
yes. 1 to 1.5 max.

If you looking to gain 8 ticks the max risk is no more than 12, better 8.

Are you familiar with the concept of "scaling out?"

And.......do you trade CL?

Have you read this entire thread?

Just checking.........

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  #735 (permalink)
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Jeff Castille View Post
Are you familiar with the concept of "scaling out?"

And.......do you trade CL?

Have you read this entire thread?

Just checking.........

Other than the psychological blanket of a so-called free trade after letting loose half a position, why scale out when all in all out is more profitable and has a proven superior risk:reward profile?

Take away: Math trumps psycho-comfort on the bottom line.

PS. I read the entire thread after 3 shots of tequila.

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  #736 (permalink)
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I believe that psycho-comfort trumps math. I am scaling out. Keeps me in longer for the remaining part.


Zoethecus View Post
Other than the psychological blanket of a so-called free trade after letting loose half a position, why scale out when all in all out is more profitable and has a proven superior risk:reward profile?

Take away: Math trumps psycho-comfort on the bottom line.

PS. I read the entire thread after 3 shots of tequila.


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  #737 (permalink)
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I agree with scaling in and out. To me, all-in/all-out implies picking the absolute top or bottom, the "perfect" price for instance, which I think is impossible. Since we don't know what the future holds, all we can do is position ourselves the best we can to benefit where possible, which means scaling out (to me).

But the whole scaling in and out discussion really doesn't belong in this thread, it's a money management topic and deserves its own thread.

Mike

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  #738 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
But the whole scaling in and out discussion really doesn't belong in this thread, it's a money management topic and deserves its own thread.

Mike

I was going to create a thread but see one already exists:
https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/414-all-all-out-vs-scaling-out.html

Mike

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  #739 (permalink)
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Here's one that got away...

... this looks like a perfect RB, but I did not take it because (1) first bar of Deutsche Borse opening, so just about always a much higher volume bar than the previous 4 bars of the first hour of the futures & (2) break out of major 6200 support level : so imho a higher risk entry, worthy of discretion.... BUT I oh so nearly took it by referencing the R8 chart which, after the M15 trade triggered pulled back 16t and formed a perfect L2 entry (circled)....... as Al B said on his recent webinar here at futures.io (formerly BMT), second entries are often the best, with significantly less heat.

PS. for Zoethecus
Quoting 
Math trumps psycho-comfort on the bottom line.

I agree in theory, but not in practice .

Attached Thumbnails
THREE SET UPS-fdax-09-10-7_29_2010-15-min-.jpg   THREE SET UPS-fdax-09-10-7_29_2010-8-range-.jpg  
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  #740 (permalink)
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jtrade View Post
... this looks like a perfect RB, but I did not take it because (1) first bar of Deutsche Borse opening, so just about always a much higher volume bar than the previous 4 bars of the first hour of the futures & (2) break out of major 6200 support level : so imho a higher risk entry, worthy of discretion.... BUT I oh so nearly took it by referencing the R8 chart which, after the M15 trade triggered pulled back 16t and formed a perfect L2 entry (circled)....... as Al B said on his recent webinar here at futures.io (formerly BMT), second entries are often the best, with significantly less heat.

I think you're over-analyzing too much. Just take the setups. Some won't work, it's ok. Give yourself permission to stop out. Effort spent weeding out the bad ones will just end up weeding out good ones as well..

I got 125 euros on that RB looking at nothing other than this chart:

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The trade before that I lost confidence and exited. Seconds after it would have hit my target and even more. Shame on me, I cost myself 125 euros. I over-analyzed too much. As Jeff says "Do your thinking when you're not trading".

I haven't commented on some of the recent posts, mainly because when people don't quote I don't know who is talking to who. But here's my beliefs:

- Don't make this too hard. Just take the setups as they come. Practice on sim for a month and you'll start to get it. You'll develop your intuition about what works and what doesn't, when to scratch a trade and when to give it more room. It might take a month or a year but this is how one learns. Jumping from one indicator to the next, trying to filter out the bad trades is not likely to lead to success.

- Scaling out - When dealing with mathematical certainties then scaling out is not optimal. However if one starts trading on intuition and with discretion, OR in changing market conditions, then scaling out allows to reduce risks, lock in gains, and be patient. Lots of benefits but to each his own I'm not going to try and convince anyone to scale out. My swing trading became profitable last October 2009 and the major thing I changed when it happened was I started scaling out. Now that I think of it, it was around the time I was collaborating with Jeff in the AYN thread and we discussed scaling out many times. I'd point to my backtests and tell him x ticks is optimal. He finally convinced me otherwise.

My ES trading is not simple. I look at a lot of data. Some say way too much. It works for me (only a couple losses this month, only 2 if I remember correctly) however I don't recommend it because it has taken me a long time to be able to do it and most would give up.

Jeff's setups are simple. One should be able to do it much quicker. Instead of theorizing just start simming. Post your trades, discuss your results. I think Jeff & I are the only ones actually trading the crude IB setup. Everyone else is talking about it. That's fine if one's goal is to have fun discussing theoretical combinations of indicators & setups but it's not going to put money in your pocket. So I say it again: If you want to make money at this then start simming it and share your results. We can learn together.

The other day I was struggling and I told Jeff I thought about quitting crude. The next day I made $1k real money. He said "now are you going to quit" and I replied "No sir!". Why do 85% of traders fail? Two main reasons:

1 - They jump from one thing to another and never master anything

2 - They give up before finding success

Now that I think about it, these are the same really as #1 is just giving up and jumping to something else. But what I mean in #2 is they ultimately give up. Linda Raschke said that if a trader makes it past 2 years (I'm assuming full time) then they have a good chance of becoming profitable. I was coming up on my 2 years when I read that so I was really optimistic. And sure enough, that's when my swing trading become profitable. 2 years and 5 months for day trading.

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