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THREE SET UPS
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Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:243

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THREE SET UPS

  #61 (permalink)
Elite Member
Northern California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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cory View Post
found the clock

This is awesome!!

I believe that this is the FIRST thing an aspiring trader should learn.(indexes)

Of course the times for CL are a little different.

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  #62 (permalink)
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DOUBLE INSIDE BAR

I wanted to take a moment and share how I trade a double inside bar. The illustration on the attachment is a perfect example........I suffered a loss on this trade.....so this approach comes from personal experience.

So......two inside bars......equals consolidation.....wait for a break from the FIRST inside bar (the MOTHER) NOT the baby. Notice how the blue outside bar broke beyond the low of the second inside bar by 1 tick........I don't have to tell what happened....but I will......you just got had by the pros. Often a break from the second inside bar will work......but beware....that breakout could very well be a fake out.

Jeff

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THREE SET UPS-cl-07-10-5_20_2010-15-min-.jpg  
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  #63 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Your right in terms of the cl being a different animal, reason is i've seen that when the cl takes a trend, it takes off and never looks back. Reason i don't trade it is because i sincerely think that for every trade, you should be willing to risk about $400 min if your not scalping( at least with the way i trade) per contract, specially on a 15 min time frame, which equates to $20k per contract(2%) or at bare minimum $10k... which is more volatile than the TF. I'de rather do more contracts and have more profit targets.
-I am accumilating data on the 6e, TF, and CL(bid/ask) for possible future use, but i haven't really done anything with it yet untill i get at least a few more months.

-I checked it on a 15 min time frame, i still think time-independent charts will yield better results. But thats just my opinion. You don't have to do what i say.


One of the reason i trade the US index futures is because you have other correlated markets, as well as the nyes tick, which heavily skews the odds in your favor. I still haven't found any type of market breadth indicator for those instruments( except the TF). There's also good inter-market analysis between those indices that don't exist on the CL or 6E(besides the US dollar). That imo helps a great deal as well.
Also, i've mentioned this before, those instruments, specially currency, are very geopolitical, which make them harder to trade, as to any news not only in the US, but also abroad will cause a sudden shift in price if you're not carefull or do not have a good new service.
So i am watching other instruments that i could use to trade, but its much easier to trade the ES/Ym than the cl, and i think most would agree. Once i gather more data and can come up with something that yields good results, ill share.

Hey Michael,

There is one point that we agree on.....that is......anyone considering trading CL has to have the appropriate account size to give these trades the stops they need to work. This FACT can NOT be over emphasized.

Let us know how the CL data works out.


Thanks, Jeff

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  #64 (permalink)
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REVERSAL BARS

NOW, this one is trickier than the inside bar and the outside bar because there is a little math involved AND volume is a consideration.

SO, here's the homework for the weekend. (only for those that are serious about these three trades)

Recognize that the reversal bar equates to four japanese candlestick formations.They are as follows: SHOOTING STAR......similiar to GRAVESTONE DOJI......AND.....HAMMER.....similiar to DRAGONFLY DOJI.

Shooting Star Candlestick Chart Pattern
Gravestone Doji Candlestick Chart Pattern
Hammer Candlestick Chart Pattern
Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Chart Pattern

After you are done memorizing the descriptions and characteristics of these four candlesticks please note the similiarities.

The ONE common element is the size of the shadow.....most often described as "at least twice as big as the Real Body".....So....I had Roonius create an indicator that would identify all candles that exhibit this characteristic. That does not mean that they are all reversal bars but if we get these at the end of an up/down move there is a high probability that there will be a reversal.

I will share this indicator in the Elite downloads. It is entitled ReversalsV6.1 and it is for Ninja 6.5.

We can discuss the volume component to these trades later.

Jeff

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  #65 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
sylvester17.....
All those trades i mentioned meet the criteria that was mentioned before, which was a need for a high volume bar. The trades that you mention at 10:20 was a losing trade that you mentioned yourself and 11:40 do not show that same high volume surge that i annotated on the charts.... you can easily spot those.


I put that chart up not to argue with you, just to point out that using candlestick patterns alone will not make you money, even if high volume is involved......
Also, if you were trading the ES on this and not the CL, you would have nyse tick data, as well as other market breadth indicators showing the skewed activity to the upside for that day, so you could have just avoided short triggers all together and stayed safe... Like i said, you can't do that with CL bc no such thing exists.

Michael H - where can I find the NYSE tick indicator and other market breath indicators that you mention? Thanks in advance

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  #66 (permalink)
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Zoethecus View Post
Is that a custom indicator identifying the setup bars?

Yeah, it's really easy to write in Easylanguage and even easier in market delta. Should be slightly more difficult for ninja. Here is the easylanguage code:

 
Code
Inputs:        IB(Blue), OB(Cyan), Lunch(Red), StartTime(1500), EndTime(2015);

if High[0] <= High[1] and Low[0] >= Low[1] then
    PlotPaintBar(H,L,O,C,"InsideBar",IB);

if High[0] >= High[1] and Low[0] <= Low[1] then
    PlotPaintBar(H,L,O,C,"InsideBar",OB);

if time >= 1800 and Time <= 1900 then
    PlotPaintBar(H,L,O,C,"InsideBar",Lunch);
if Time <= StartTime then
    PlotPaintBar(H,L,O,C,"InsideBar",Lunch);
if Time >= EndTime then
    PlotPaintBar(H,L,O,C,"InsideBar",Lunch);

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  #67 (permalink)
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gulabv View Post
Michael H - where can I find the NYSE tick indicator and other market breath indicators that you mention? Thanks in advance

This will depend on which charting package you are currently running and also you will need a data provider who supplies the correct data as most do not, one that does is DTN IQfeed.

also see here
TraderFeed: Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Two

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  #68 (permalink)
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Jeff,

Fat Tails showed me this thread. I've read thru it but I think my mind is tired so you'll have to forgive my dumb question.

Can you post a chart(s) showing an outside bar and a reversal bar? I saw plenty of examples of inside bars (the yellow ones) when I skimmed the thread but I don't think I saw charts showing the other 2.

Thanks,
Todd

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  #69 (permalink)
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Does anyone believe that the back test results from Strategy analyzer are reliable? mean, can the trades from backtest close to, if we did in real time data?

or is the sim trade in real time data or market replay better?

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  #70 (permalink)
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Todd View Post
Jeff,

Fat Tails showed me this thread. I've read thru it but I think my mind is tired so you'll have to forgive my dumb question.

Can you post a chart(s) showing an outside bar and a reversal bar? I saw plenty of examples of inside bars (the yellow ones) when I skimmed the thread but I don't think I saw charts showing the other 2.

Thanks,
Todd

Hi Todd,

Probably the best way to see ALL of the bar types that this thread is concerned with (inside/outside/reversal) would be to load the Reversals V6.1 indicator on the 7-10 contract of CL (15 min) for the last 35 days and you will see days....of charts. The reason that the reversal bars have not appeared on any charts is that the indicator was just posted Fri afternoon. Remember that a tradeable reversal bar MUST come AFTER an up/down move.

Jeff

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