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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #681 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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vegasfoster View Post
I decided to focus only on this strategy today

I think there is a lot of useful information in the thread that you may have missed.

For example I use a max stop. Filtering out the trades where the IB is big will miss out on some great trades.

Another example is trading after lunch.

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  #682 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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vegasfoster View Post
I decided to focus only on this strategy today, although I did make one discretionary trade for a -6 loss . The first trade was the outside bar at 6:45. I originally didn't place the order because both the Dow and CL looked like they could bounce, but after the price tried to push up and failed then I felt good that the short would hit at least 8 ticks so I entered. The second trade was my crap discretionary trade, which I dumped out at a small loss after it failed to push up. I should have never entered so close to the 78.00 handle and the news. The third trade was the inside bar after the news. The 2nd profit target was 2 ticks below the low for the day and I figured that if the price dropped to 2 ticks below the low that it would probably keep going, so I moved my proft target down and made an extra 10 ticks. This somewhat made up for my stupid trade earlier. I set it for audible alert and plan to keep trading it as long as it continues to work.

That said, the obvious concern with this stategy are the occasional excessively large stops. I am not sure I would be willing to take a 50+ tick loser. For example, on the outside bar trade above, I was going to stop out at the high of the current bar, which would have been a 42 tick loser, figuring if it pushed up that far again that the trade was most likely a dud. That said, in the long run it may possibly be better to simply filter out large stop trades. I am including the stop amount as a stat in my testing so I can analyze performance by stop amount. But I just started and because there are so few losers, I don't have enough data at this point. Is anyone else considering this in their testing and have any results to share?

Also, I don't know what other people are finding, but so far my limited testing has found that trading after lunch seems to be a waste of time. I need more data but are you guys finding the same thing?

I figured out they finally fixed NT so that you can now see your trades on the chart when trading CL with Interactive Brokers, so here it is. Good luck the rest of the day, it's nap time for me.

Well..........what can I say........if you choose to trade in the morning before the oil inventory report is released......good luck with that. Did you read Cunparis' earlier post?

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  #683 (permalink)
 vegasfoster 
las vegas
 
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Couldn't sleep. Cunparis, as far as large stops, my preference would be to reduce overall profits in order to lower my risk on any single trade. Your preference may be different, but if you have found that large stop trades are still profitable, then that is good to know, thank you.

Jeff, in my experience, I haven't had any problems trading up to 15 minutes before news. IMO, the first trade was good from start to finish, and at 40 minutes before the news, I don't see any problem with it. The second trade was about 10-minutes before the news. I called the second trade discretionary because I was actually trading off a 5-minute chart, the entry just happened to be within 1 tick of the entry using the 15-minute inside bar strategy. I agree, I never should have taken it , but finally did the right thing and dumped it quickly.

I have been reading this thread, but it is possible that I missed some of the posts so I plan to go back through it shortly. Thanks for the feedback.

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  #684 (permalink)
 lolu 
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This is my last trade of the day on NT6.5/Zen-Fire; I'm now switching over to NT7b18/Zen-Fire.

Lolu

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  #685 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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vegasfoster View Post
Couldn't sleep. Cunparis, as far as large stops, my preference would be to reduce overall profits in order to lower my risk on any single trade. Your preference may be different, but if you have found that large stop trades are still profitable, then that is good to know, thank you.

I found the large IB setups are very profitable. Large IB = even larger previous bar = volatility = good chance of hitting your target.

I have determined that 31 ticks is the optimal stop for 3 years of non-filtered (news) trades. So I use 31 for max stop and if the IB is 20 ticks tall then I put 20 tick stop (22 actually to have a tick on both sides).

stop outs are rare. and this is where I think trade management can improve the edge, but that takes a lot of practice cause it's possible to screw it up and get less performance too.

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  #686 (permalink)
 ghman101 
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Hi Jeff, was trying to load this template into NT7 V18 but get the following error message >> TechSmith | Screencast.com, online video sharing, 2010-07-21_1243

I assume it is only NT6.5?

Also, is the best place to get the most current rules/templates right at the beginning of this thread, or do I need to read all 60+ pages?

THANKS A MILLION for all you have done! gh

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  #687 (permalink)
 vegasfoster 
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That sound really good, thank you Cunparis.

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  #688 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Since the THREE SETUPS deal with breakouts, some of you might be interested in Corey's upcoming webinar TODAY, like in 1 hour or so. Check it out if you're interested. Corey's good people, a great technician.

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  #689 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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ghman101 View Post
Hi Jeff, was trying to load this template into NT7 V18 but get the following error message >> TechSmith | Screencast.com, online video sharing, 2010-07-21_1243

I assume it is only NT6.5?

Also, is the best place to get the most current rules/templates right at the beginning of this thread, or do I need to read all 60+ pages?

THANKS A MILLION for all you have done! gh

Hey ghman,

Yes.......6.5 .....I don't know anything about NT V7......and from what I've seen that's just as well.

Yes, post #1 says it all. The only other thing I would add to that is know WHEN to trade and when NOT to trade. If you are not familiar with time of day, time of week, time of month, time of year......then there are a few tidbits in the rest of the thread.

You are welcome, Jeff

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  #690 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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vegasfoster View Post
Couldn't sleep. Cunparis, as far as large stops, my preference would be to reduce overall profits in order to lower my risk on any single trade. Your preference may be different, but if you have found that large stop trades are still profitable, then that is good to know, thank you.

Jeff, in my experience, I haven't had any problems trading up to 15 minutes before news. IMO, the first trade was good from start to finish, and at 40 minutes before the news, I don't see any problem with it. The second trade was about 10-minutes before the news. I called the second trade discretionary because I was actually trading off a 5-minute chart, the entry just happened to be within 1 tick of the entry using the 15-minute inside bar strategy. I agree, I never should have taken it , but finally did the right thing and dumped it quickly.

I have been reading this thread, but it is possible that I missed some of the posts so I plan to go back through it shortly. Thanks for the feedback.

Ultimately you've got to do what works for YOU.......it just seems like every Wed. someone posts a chart and says "look....my three set ups trade is a loser!"......I take a look at the chart and see that they have NO respect for the biggest weekly news announcement for CL.......this just dosn't make sense to me. So, that's why I get a little edgy about these things.......they make good set ups look bad because they don't know WHEN to trade.

I do admit.......it seems every Wed there is at least one trade I wish I was in........but there are usually two that I am glad I had nothing to do with. I find that if I am patient and wait until the oil invertory report is released.......I usually get a great set up or two!! So, that's what I'm stickin' with.

Jeff

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