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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #651 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
 
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just a thought.

one of the most important rules of the original setup is to go short after a big move up. of course the other setups are volume and inside, outside and reversal bars.

but a big move will most likely bring the price outside the keltner channel.

today was a good example.

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  #652 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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This is all very interesting......but........have you been able to document if there is a higher failure rate for "bad" inside bars?????

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  #653 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Silvester17 View Post
just a thought.

one of the most important rules of the original setup is to go short after a big move up. of course the other setups are volume and inside, outside and reversal bars.

but a big move will most likely bring the price outside the keltner channel.

today was a good example.

Yes...and no. Maybe most of the time, maybe not. I guess it depends on how you define a big move. Probably a bar whose range is > some large multiple of ATR.


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  #654 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Jeff Castille View Post
This is all very interesting......but........have you been able to document if there is a higher failure rate for "bad" inside bars?????

Not yet, just making eye candy for now My brain is fried from other coding projects, making candy seems funner for now.

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  #655 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
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shodson View Post
Yes...and no. Maybe most of the time, maybe not. I guess it depends on how you define a big move. Probably a bar whose range is > some large multiple of ATR.


yes good point. I don't know since I'm not trading CL.

with ES I would like to see at least a 5 point move from last swing high/low before taking a reversal trade.

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  #656 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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The question here is a question of time. If there is an inside bar directly after a big move up, which lead outside all channels, there are three possibilities

(1) continued move up
(2) consolidation
(3) reversal

(1) is unlikely, and if you look at shodson's examples, the upmove was followed by a consolidtation back into the Keltner Channel 3 out of 4 times. So you would not trade a breakout to the upside, unless the consolidation has taken place.

(2) is the most likely outcome

(3) is the most likely outcome after a new release, because price needs a neutral evaulation of the longer term impact of the news, after the news traders have had their game.





Silvester17 View Post
yes good point. I don't know since I'm not trading CL.

with ES I would like to see at least a 5 point move from last swing high/low before taking a reversal trade.


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  #657 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
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shodson View Post
I created an IB indicator that paints the bar black if it's a "good" IB and orange if it's a "bad" IB

A good IB is

- inside a Keltner
- NR4
- the range is < ATR(14)

We can debate or modify what we think a good IB is or not, but this is a start.

Hi Shodson

Thanks for the indicator. I just took an Inside Bar trade and it's my first 2-contract one because it's good black IB!!

Guess the conservative traders can just trade the black IBs and not all though most IBs (even the orange ones) have been profitable.

I am going to see if I may be able to include the suggested code to my strategies and check their performance against the general ones.

My trillion thanks again Shodson. You have made my day!

Beth (grateful)

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  #658 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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+11 & +15. I was a bit worried on that last one. I almost didn't take it. ES was in a trading range and was really choppy. But I told myself to trade it like a robot. I did put my buy stop 2 ticks above because the previous bar's high was 1 tick above and I wanted it to clear both.

It triggered and then I took a lot of heat. Then Crude broke out so fast my head spun. ES followed slowly like a turtle.

My ES trading sucked so it was nice to score two winners on crude.


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  #659 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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cunparis View Post
+11 & +15. I was a bit worried on that last one. I almost didn't take it. ES was in a trading range and was really choppy. But I told myself to trade it like a robot. I did put my buy stop 2 ticks above because the previous bar's high was 1 tick above and I wanted it to clear both.

It triggered and then I took a lot of heat. Then Crude broke out so fast my head spun. ES followed slowly like a turtle.

My ES trading sucked so it was nice to score two winners on crude.


Excellent discretion !!!!! I put my buy stop at 31.

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  #660 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Excellent discretion !!!!! I put my buy stop at 31.

Instead of a Buy Stop, I placed a Sell Stop at 94. Waiting for it to become an Outside Bar LOL!

Beth

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