THREE SET UPS - futures io
futures io



THREE SET UPS


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Jeff Castille with 215 posts (429 thanks)
    2. looks_two cunparis with 146 posts (154 thanks)
    3. looks_3 shodson with 125 posts (211 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fat Tails with 73 posts (189 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 2.6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Jeff Castille with 2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 shodson with 1.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 cunparis with 1.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 222,135 views
    2. thumb_up 1,368 thanks given
    3. group 125 followers
    1. forum 1,073 posts
    2. attach_file 239 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

THREE SET UPS

(login for full post details)
  #631 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,969 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,683 received

I haven't had time to backtest this, but IBs that touch outside a Keltner seem to be more risky. My first on loss on Friday (a 44 tick loss) could have been prevented.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Time to change of FCM
Emini and Emicro Index
Simpler Trading - Squeeze Pro indicator
Platforms and Indicators
mahDualCandlePattern
NinjaTrader
Help with Scale In ATM strategy
NinjaTrader
Multidata
EasyLanguage Programming
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
108 thanks
Most Funding Firms are a Scam
50 thanks
How many day traders are profitable?
26 thanks
Hedging NQ and MNQ 1-10...
13 thanks
Prop Firm Combines Criteria
9 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #632 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,088 received


shodson View Post
I haven't had time to backtest this, but IBs that touch outside a Keltner seem to be more risky. My first on loss on Friday (a 44 tick loss) could have been prevented.

Be careful drawing conclusions from an isolated event. You'll be chasing your tail this way. Backtest it and if the idea doesn't hold up let it go. You can't prevent all the losers in a mechanical system, there are just too many variables and optimizing to try will curve fit the system.

I don't put much faith in any price-based indicators. An inside bar is indecision. It'll break out either way, and the way it breaks out depends on what trader(s) are willing to do at the moment of the breakout. Seeing what price has done in the past x bars could be totally irrelevant, especially in 15 minute bars. All it takes is one trader with a market order and that changes everything.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #633 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,969 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,683 received



cunparis View Post
Be careful drawing conclusions from an isolated event. You'll be chasing your tail this way. Backtest it and if the idea doesn't hold up let it go. You can't prevent all the losers in a mechanical system, there are just too many variables and optimizing to try will curve fit the system.

I don't put much faith in any price-based indicators. An inside bar is indecision. It'll break out either way, and the way it breaks out depends on what trader(s) are willing to do at the moment of the breakout. Seeing what price has done in the past x bars could be totally irrelevant, especially in 15 minute bars. All it takes is one trader with a market order and that changes everything.

Yep, one trade scenario a pattern does not make.

I just reviewed last week's trades and the performance of IB's outside of a Keltner. Trading all such IBs netted +2 ticks, so I don't know if there's much correlation to Keltner's. I think the problem I have is when the IB is much larger than my target, usually because it follows a large expansion bar. While it's a pause, relative to recent price action, the IB may still be much larger than normal volatility and the market may still be trading violently.

I meant to do a lot more backtesting this weekend but was too busy with other things. As such, I think I'm going to stop trading IBs until I get some more research done. Then again, we just had a winning IB this morning and now I wish I would have taken it, and a 14 tick sized IB on 6E that I would have taken ran up almost +100 ticks


Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #634 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,088 received

This morning's first IB trade was interesting.

It came up to my target (currently 19 ticks) but didn't hit it (or I didn't get filled). So I sat through a pullback. But then I saw professional buying so I got out with +12.

I'm doing more testing on the optimal target. I suspect maybe Tradestation is too generous with the fills as it reported today's trade filled +19 when real money trading with ninja I didn't get filled. i think I'll move my ticks in a few, maybe 16 like Jeff.



The dots are a work in progress but so far they've been helpful at picking reversal areas which allows me to pull my target in (if I'm quick enough) or look for a retest, or to trail my stop..

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #635 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,603 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,120 given, 11,496 received


shodson View Post
I haven't had time to backtest this, but IBs that touch outside a Keltner seem to be more risky. My first on loss on Friday (a 44 tick loss) could have been prevented.

I'm no keltner channel expert at all. and I know people trade it different ways. here's one possibility:

if price goes through the lower line and closes outside the lower line it's a bearish sign. if price goes through the lower line but closes inside the channel it's a bullish sign.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #636 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received


shodson View Post
Yep, one trade scenario a pattern does not make.

I just reviewed last week's trades and the performance of IB's outside of a Keltner. Trading all such IBs netted +2 ticks, so I don't know if there's much correlation to Keltner's. I think the problem I have is when the IB is much larger than my target, usually because it follows a large expansion bar. While it's a pause, relative to recent price action, the IB may still be much larger than normal volatility and the market may still be trading violently.

I meant to do a lot more backtesting this weekend but was too busy with other things. As such, I think I'm going to stop trading IBs until I get some more research done. Then again, we just had a winning IB this morning and now I wish I would have taken it, and a 14 tick sized IB on 6E that I would have taken ran up almost +100 ticks


All I can say.........every trade you lost on I won on...........to me that would suggest a close examination of your money management strategy......Also, don't trade the afternoon of options expiration day.......make it a rule....

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #637 (permalink)
 aviat72 
San Francisco Bay Area
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT,TOS,IB
Trading: ES,CL,TF
 
Posts: 280 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 156 given, 273 received

Jeff: Question about the size of the IB. Would you take a breakout if there is no wick in the candle in the direction of the breakout (and it closes there)?

When is a 15 minute IB not a 5 min bear flag?

The 15 min IB bar breakout just hit as I type this note in CLSept10 76.67. It has made it to +7 though not much traded there...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #638 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received


aviat72 View Post
Jeff: Question about the size of the IB. Would you take a breakout if there is no wick in the candle in the direction of the breakout (and it closes there)?

When is a 15 minute IB not a 5 min bear flag?

The 15 min IB bar breakout just hit as I type this note in CLSept10 76.67. It has made it to +7 though not much traded there...

You are trading during lunch time in NYC !!!! This isn't the best time to trade. I see half of al signals FAIL during this time period....So if you want to trade during this time period.....good luck with that.

As far as your other questions........I'm just focused on 15 minute charts so I can not say how the 15 min related to the 5.

Sure.....wickless inside bars......why not......that behavior usually shows some good activity.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING........TIME OF DAY.

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #639 (permalink)
 aviat72 
San Francisco Bay Area
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT,TOS,IB
Trading: ES,CL,TF
 
Posts: 280 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 156 given, 273 received


Jeff Castille View Post
You are trading during lunch time in NYC !!!! This isn't the best time to trade. I see half of al signals FAIL during this time period....So if you want to trade during this time period.....good luck with that.

As far as your other questions........I'm just focused on 15 minute charts so I can not say how the 15 min related to the 5.

Sure.....wickless inside bars......why not......that behavior usually shows some good activity.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING........TIME OF DAY.

Thanks Jeff. Not trading just watching. Post 12:30 the lunch hour is not necessarily bad; especially if ES is ripping.
BTW the signal worked well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 1:15PM bar also worked out well. 2/2 in the past 45 minutes.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to aviat72 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #640 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,119 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,783 given, 3,299 received


Welp.........another fine day for the "Three Set Ups" signals......see attached chart. No losers.....even the lunchtime trade.

I think that pretty much does it as far as these particuliar trades go.......I think me posting charts everyday is sort of redundant since everyone has the same chart.........so if you have questions I'll be happy to answer them......if I can.

Good trading to all,

Jeff

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	CL 09-10  7_19_2010 (15 Min).jpg
Views:	244
Size:	113.5 KB
ID:	17210  
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > THREE SET UPS


Last Updated on May 15, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts