Maybe not difficult, but impossible. If this is so, better to set stops that best suit one's trading personality (assuming a positive expectancy, of course).
The markets are like the oceans - always changing and always ready to catch even the most experienced navigator unawares...
So here's my SIM results for this week with the following notes :
* FDAX during the European morning only, usually start around 0900 (slightly earlier this week as school holidays). I think FDAX is better than 6E.
* ATM presets +8+8+21+55; I will not usually move the first two, occasionally the third one to above / below S/R; usually the fourth one.
* No trades on Wednesday as I was touring some local canals with guests.
* A few trades filtered out by my discretion (I am working on defining what I mean by "discretion" - an ongoing work in process in which I have not yet reached a satisfactory level of precision).
* I did not succeed in getting a single big trade, either because I was not at my screen or missed an exit by one tick (Trade #5 +79 on exit 4 - it retraced very fast).
* Stops : ATM preset at -21, which is tight and a leftover from trading faster charts. At +8 stop moves to -4, thereafter must be moved manually. I am presently using an 8 tick range chart with DoubleMA (SMA 8 x 2) - screenshot attached - I want to get my initial stop reduced as soon as possible and may do so before exits 1 & 2 are hit, but only when the R8 chart structure allows it. Generally I will try to hold until the R8 bar closes beyond this MA (another endless work in progress). I am also keeping a record of whether or not a stop set at two thirds the signal bar would have been hit on a winning trade (this idea thanks to cbratton) - see spreadsheet.
* Trade #8 "R8 H2" was an Al Brooks-style entry that screamed so loud I had to take it : I like H2/L2 entries (you might disagree with my H count). It's the trade on the R8 char screenshot and doesn't really relate to this thread !
* I am going to have another look at Better Volume, to see if I can derive worthwhile additional information over simple VolumeUpDn.
thanks for your answer. Yes, I am always considering a two-legged correction, such as an ABC correction. And often the second leg has a similar size as the first one.
Yesterday was a reversal day. Price opened near the high of the day and closed near the high of the day. Statistically these reversal days are not very freqeuent. So you can not count on this. Often after a strong trending move in the morning, price will consolidate during noon and then continue its way during the afternoon. The consolidation can take various patterns, one of them is a horizontal trading range, another one would be two-legged flag.
In the end price retraced about 78%. So the whole day became a bearish Gartley pattern, predicting that price would fall during the night session.
The chart does not show all of my indicators. The regression filter is the standard LinReg indicator that comes with NinjaTrader. I use a period of 34 with a displacement of 4 bars. If price is above -> only long trades, if price is below -> only short trades. A successful retest of that line is a signal to enter a trade.
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