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Yes I understood. effectively you're trailing your stop below the 15min low (for a long). I was just saying that trailing a stop is always a good idea and one can trail it under any timeframe - 15min, 5min, 1min.. Just not too tight, got to give it plenty of room.
I put on a long trade in ES during the noon session.
Reasons for the trade
After the strong down move, I expected that the correction would show a second leg up (also see methods of Al Brooks). See 15 min chart below. Also price was above my linear regression filter. So when an inside bar formed, I took the breakout to the upside.
After the inside bar had formed, entered long at 1080.25 high of the inside bar.
Stop-Loss: 6 ticks below entry
Target 1 : 4 ticks above entry (low volatility during noon)
Target 2 : 8 ticks above entry (two ticks below resistance, no trailing because of noon session)
Reward-to-risk: 2:3 for target 1, 4:3 for target 2
Evaluation
- Both targets met
- Preference for an upward breakout correctly established
- Reward-to-risk was bad (because the second profit target was not appropriate)
- Took the trade to early, could have waited for a second entry. However, the inside bar suggested an early entry.
- Trade went 4 ticks against me
- Trading ES during the noon session is as rewarding as watching paint dry. I had to walk away several times, because otherwise I would have exited to avoid the pain of boredom
- As often I exited ways too early. Could have made 28 ticks and closed out the second half of the trade with 8 ticks of profit.
This shows again that a good exit of the trade is the most difficult to achieve.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
Looks like my post-news IB worked out. I knew it would explode in one way or another after so much consolidation. I had 3 winning IBs that could have all hit their 2x targets if I was trading 2 cars. I'm sticking with 1 car though until I increase my account size and I trade these in a more sophisticated manner.
Not near my charts now, but got the corner of my eye on CL on ToS while I get some work done. Sort of wishing I could turn my bots off and not risk today's profit anymore, but I'm taking every signal, regardless of daily profits/losses.
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Last edited by shodson; July 15th, 2010 at 02:22 PM.
The following 4 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
Popcorn bar ( as discussed in the pdf at the beginning of the post) on S&P 5 Minutes , I will play it
You know what you know but you do not know what you do not know.
You do not see things how they are, you see things how you are.
In life you do what you want but you do not want what you want.
The following user says Thank You to gabga100 for this post:
If using the two legs up theory do you think it would be helpful to consider the second leg equal to the first. Like an ab=cd thing. Also, after such a strong decline would a fib retrace of 50% be valid. I'm not second guessing your decisions by any means. Just trying to be thought provoking.
David
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
Thank you for your insightful and thought provoking contributions to this thread !
One question.........you refer to your "linear regression filter" yet I see no such filter on the chart. I was wondering if you could point this filter out to me.
Thanks, Jeff
The following user says Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
