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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #551 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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shodson View Post
Has anybody ever considered time in trade? I've seen some breakout strategies that, for example, if they go long, and they haven't reached their intended target after a certain amount of time they get out of the trade. The thought is that if an IB represents a pause, consolidation, and a period right before the next big move, then if no bog move is made after a certain amount of time it probably wasn't meant to be.

I plan to test a time stop in my automated strategy.

I got +13 and +1. on the first one I pulled my target in 2 ticks under the high. I think it's likely HoD gets tested but not always broken (crude was already up over 2%). It blew threw the HoD so fast my head spun. +13

the second one, I noticed crude was stuck at 77.00 which is an even number so I got out with +1. that trade would have stopped out. +1

So a bit of discretion hurt in the first (a little) but saved me on the second. Still experimenting with this, it's a work in progress. From my discretionary ES trading I have trouble watching it go against me when I don't think it's going to hit the target.

Great trading today all around.


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  #552 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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Got +10 on that last one. Turns out I could have got 20. I beat my automated strategy..



here's the automated version.


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  #553 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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Ninja is going to be hosting a webinar today featuring Steve Nison.....the man who brought japanese candlesticks to the western world......I alway try to catch him when ever I can.....I always learn something.

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  #554 (permalink)
 lolu 
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A LIVE Real-time video of this LONG/BUY trade. I now have a volume indicator in panel 2.

Lolu

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  #555 (permalink)
 vegasfoster 
las vegas
 
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shodson View Post
On CL's open, wait for the first 15min bar to form.

If it's an up bar, buy
If it's a down bar, sell
If it's a doji, go in the direction of the breakout
Close your position 3 hours later (12noon Eastern)

I'm not saying this is a sure moneymaker, but it's interesting to note, at least lately, that the first bar of the day tends to portend where the market will end up at lunch time, especially when big moves are made.

The winners, on average, seem to be larger than the losers.

4 out of 5 losers happened when the opening 15 min bar crosses into last bar of the previous day's morning session. All of the winners didn't do that: there were always gaps.

Again, this is a small sample size, so definitely nothing conclusive. Just interesting...


No I think it's probably a good idea. But can't say for certain because I have been looking for the entry before the open. I have only been doing it for a few weeks and don't have any set rules, but I have noticed that it is usually very predictable at this time and if looks like it is about to break up or down, then it usually does or if it looks like it is about to bounce, then it usually does, and the move will often carry through the open nicely. I usually enter and then just take what I can get. Today I got in at 76.08 on the break at 5:51 PST (I prefer not to trade at the break, but like I said, if it looks like a duck), but dumped out way too early at 76.21. Was thinking today I should try it with two lots and take the easy money on one and then let the other run until the swings fail.

I haven't considered it your way though, so it may be better than my way or it may be a good second way to take advantage of how it is moving at that time, will definately take a look at. Thanks.

Update: Yeah, I think I will keep looking for the entry early at two units. If the second is still in it and up at your entry point, then I will add another unit and let it ride. If I miss my entry, then I will take yours. OHHHH, that sounds so sweet, I am gonna be rich!

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  #556 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
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vegasfoster View Post
No I think it's probably a good idea. But can't say for certain because I have been looking for the entry before the open. I have only been doing it for a few weeks and don't have any set rules, but I have noticed that it is usually very predictable at this time and if looks like it is about to break up or down, then it usually does or if it looks like it is about to bounce, then it usually does, and the move will often carry through the open nicely. I usually enter and then just take what I can get. Today I got in at 76.08 on the break at 5:51 PST (I prefer not to trade at the break, but like I said, if it looks like a duck), but dumped out way too early at 76.21. Was thinking today I should try it with two lots and take the easy money on one and then let the other run until the swings fail.

I haven't considered it your way though, so it may be better than my way or it may be a good second way to take advantage of how it is moving at that time, will definately take a look at. Thanks.

Update: Yeah, I think I will keep looking for the entry early at two units. If the second is still in it and up at your entry point, then I will add another unit and let it ride. If I miss my entry, then I will take yours. OHHHH, that sounds so sweet, I am gonna be rich!

Today would have been another +24 winner. It would have been better to enter sooner. Something more to backtest...


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  #557 (permalink)
 shodson 
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cunparis View Post
Got +10 on that last one. Turns out I could have got 20. I beat my automated strategy.

I got +20 but then realized the strat was running on SIM (Grrrr!) I deleted the strategy and re-added it with my real account and the last trade backtested as a loss, but I trust SIM more than a backtest so I'm claiming +20 unfortunately on SIM though.

While +20 is not as good as cunparis's +25 I achieved it with 1 car instead of 2, so half of the leverage and maximum risk. Just sayin'...


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  #558 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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3 Inside Bar trades today (incl morning and afternoon sessions)

1. Sim Strategies (PT/SL @12/16)

3 Long (2 winners and 1 loser) EOD 10 ticks

Note: No Inside Bar trades in the afternoon.

2. Real Trade (morning only)

2 Long (both winners with PT @8) 16 ticks

Note: SL according to the suggested rule, ie 1 tick above or below the signal bar.

Sooooo, I outperform my strategies today .. smile .. Why not taking more trades? I'm happy with 2 winning trades in a row.

Beth

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  #559 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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wgreenie View Post
3 Inside Bar trades today (incl morning and afternoon sessions)

1. Sim Strategies (PT/SL @12/16)

3 Long (2 winners and 1 loser) EOD 10 ticks

Note: No Inside Bar trades in the afternoon.

2. Real Trade (morning only)

2 Long (both winners with PT @8) 16 ticks

Note: SL according to the suggested rule, ie 1 tick above or below the signal bar.

Sooooo, I outperform my strategies today .. smile .. Why not taking more trades? I'm happy with 2 winning trades in a row.

Beth

Hi Beth,

All of the three set ups trade today were winners (3 inside bars and 1 outside bar).........what is the loser you are refering to?

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  #560 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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I programmed a simple time stop. When time is up it exits.




Here it is with 15 vs. 115 (115 is basically no time stop):



This tells me after 15 minutes might as well exit because things don't get better. Not a huge difference but still, less time in the market is better.

Whether the position was profitable or not didn't make a difference really, best just to close it out.

I'm not sure if I'll use a timestop or not. I usually get impatient and trail a stop so I don't know if it makes a difference for me.

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