Nasty day.....-26.......my biggest mistake was closing the first trade before it hit my stop........after I closed the trade it went one tick more and reversed......and I took a loss of -56 on a trade that by my own rules turned into a winner.....too much thinking.
All in all and excellent week........I'll be working on the continuation trades over the weekend.
The beauty about CL is that it is not only trendy like TF but is also rotational like ES. This opens up all kinds of trading opportunities and styles, including counter-trend trades.
Depending on the time (and type) of the day CL trades on its own or trades in correlation with others including the ES, 6E and equity market internals. An automatic trading system is ideal for CL since it has a wide daily range, and a combination of bracket and trending markets intra-day.
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The problem with fixed stops is that with CL it is very easy to get an overshoot or undershoot of a few ticks without any change in market structure.
However trading CL with its big vertical developments without hard stops can also destroy a trader. That is why reading price action near critical points is very important.
The 76 level had acted as strong resistance overnight and took out a lot of stops when it went. However the price was consistently rejected above 76.30 and it built a huge amount of volume between 76.10 and 76.20 before the bottom fell through during the lunch hour.
The biggest leap a trader can make is understand the context in which the instrument is trading. There are so many variables to it, that I am finding it hard even to formulate the problem to a degree of clarity where I can attempt to program it.
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This Thread goes from strength to strength.
Many thanks to Jeff and all involved.
Has anyone an indicator that replicates Jeff's CMIPivotsDailyDashV7.cs that is NT 7 compliant?
When I try this one in NT 7 in show a compiling error whereas it is fine in my 6.5.
Well, today confirmed my biggest fear with the IBs: risking 2 cars at 20-30 each to make +8 +16 requires too high of a win rate than I may want to stomach. So, a couple of things
1) I'm only going to trade one car, not two
2) I'm going to trade targets more proportional to my risks, hopefully not at the peril of my win rate and profit factor
I did some more testing tonight, just trading 1 car, 1 target, 1 stop, and not moving any stops to breakeven, just letting it fly in the wind. I tested CL-07 because I don't have recent data on this laptop, but here are my results for +8, +16, +24 and +32. +24 worked best.
I've also started coding for backtesting
- target ATR
- target the size of the IB so risk=reward
- target (ATR+IB size) / 2
- different strategies for moving stops at certain points of profit
- only trade with-trend or counter-trend
- examine when IB size < 1/2 of ATR, these are points of extreme indecision and seem to produce greater win rates, perhaps trade those with larger positions
- only take IBs inside of some set of std dev-based bands (Keltner, Bollinger) and not if they are outside of the bands. or, if outside, only trade an IB move that is a mean reverting back into the bands
Good work, shodson, & thanks to Jeff for another great thread ('don't think I posted to this thread yet).
Whilst I am not trading CL, I am looking at adding these entries to FDAX during the European morning. FDAX and CL are quite similar in their trading characteristics, with great potential for profit and loss. Imho, there simply has to be the possibility of catching the bigger swings to keep the RR acceptable : the odd 100+ tick trade is invaluable in this regard. My present conclusion is that one needs to trade 4 contracts minimum (I know, I know...) : "buy your risk" with 2 off at +8 / whatever, another off at +16 for you guys, +21 to +34 for FDAX, c4 hold for bigger swing / technical exit.
I'm going to run this in SIM from Monday.
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