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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #471 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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here's my trades:




Oops I didn't take any!

the first IB I saw but it was news time. The second I didn't take cause I didn't like how Crude was trading, very narrow range. Same for ES. Any other reasons to avoid it? It would have lost twice.

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  #472 (permalink)
 shodson 
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cunparis View Post
here's my trades:

Oops I didn't take any!

the first IB I saw but it was news time. The second I didn't take cause I didn't like how Crude was trading, very narrow range. Same for ES. Any other reasons to avoid it? It would have lost twice.

Wish I could say the same. I don't have my charts in front of me but checking my account balance it looks like I lost 74 ticks today. Congrats on your ability to read the market.

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  #473 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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Nasty day.....-26.......my biggest mistake was closing the first trade before it hit my stop........after I closed the trade it went one tick more and reversed......and I took a loss of -56 on a trade that by my own rules turned into a winner.....too much thinking.

All in all and excellent week........I'll be working on the continuation trades over the weekend.

Jeff

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  #474 (permalink)
 aviat72 
San Francisco Bay Area
 
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This thread was on my reading list, and I realized I have been missing out something really nice.


To start with I am attaching a PDF of a scan of Tony Crabel's book which I found on scribd. Not the best scan but works.

Sorry the attachment does not work since it is just over 20MB PDF and is already compressed (images) so Zip does not help in reducing the size. It is available on Toby Crabel - Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout

The beauty about CL is that it is not only trendy like TF but is also rotational like ES. This opens up all kinds of trading opportunities and styles, including counter-trend trades.

Depending on the time (and type) of the day CL trades on its own or trades in correlation with others including the ES, 6E and equity market internals. An automatic trading system is ideal for CL since it has a wide daily range, and a combination of bracket and trending markets intra-day.

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  #475 (permalink)
 aviat72 
San Francisco Bay Area
 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Nasty day.....-26.......my biggest mistake was closing the first trade before it hit my stop........after I closed the trade it went one tick more and reversed......and I took a loss of -56 on a trade that by my own rules turned into a winner.....too much thinking.

All in all and excellent week........I'll be working on the continuation trades over the weekend.

Jeff


The problem with fixed stops is that with CL it is very easy to get an overshoot or undershoot of a few ticks without any change in market structure.

However trading CL with its big vertical developments without hard stops can also destroy a trader. That is why reading price action near critical points is very important.

The 76 level had acted as strong resistance overnight and took out a lot of stops when it went. However the price was consistently rejected above 76.30 and it built a huge amount of volume between 76.10 and 76.20 before the bottom fell through during the lunch hour.

The biggest leap a trader can make is understand the context in which the instrument is trading. There are so many variables to it, that I am finding it hard even to formulate the problem to a degree of clarity where I can attempt to program it.

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  #476 (permalink)
 jmacn 
Brisbane Australia
 
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This Thread goes from strength to strength.
Many thanks to Jeff and all involved.
Has anyone an indicator that replicates Jeff's CMIPivotsDailyDashV7.cs that is NT 7 compliant?
When I try this one in NT 7 in show a compiling error whereas it is fine in my 6.5.
Regards John

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  #477 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Well, today confirmed my biggest fear with the IBs: risking 2 cars at 20-30 each to make +8 +16 requires too high of a win rate than I may want to stomach. So, a couple of things

1) I'm only going to trade one car, not two
2) I'm going to trade targets more proportional to my risks, hopefully not at the peril of my win rate and profit factor

I did some more testing tonight, just trading 1 car, 1 target, 1 stop, and not moving any stops to breakeven, just letting it fly in the wind. I tested CL-07 because I don't have recent data on this laptop, but here are my results for +8, +16, +24 and +32. +24 worked best.

I've also started coding for backtesting
- target ATR
- target the size of the IB so risk=reward
- target (ATR+IB size) / 2
- different strategies for moving stops at certain points of profit
- only trade with-trend or counter-trend
- examine when IB size < 1/2 of ATR, these are points of extreme indecision and seem to produce greater win rates, perhaps trade those with larger positions
- only take IBs inside of some set of std dev-based bands (Keltner, Bollinger) and not if they are outside of the bands. or, if outside, only trade an IB move that is a mean reverting back into the bands

Lots to do...

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  #478 (permalink)
 vegasfoster 
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shodson View Post
Well, today confirmed my biggest fear with the IBs: risking 2 cars at 20-30 each to make +8 +16 requires too high of a win rate than I may want to stomach. So, a couple of things

1) I'm only going to trade one car, not two
2) I'm going to trade targets more proportional to my risks, hopefully not at the peril of my win rate and profit factor

I did some more testing tonight, just trading 1 car, 1 target, 1 stop, and not moving any stops to breakeven, just letting it fly in the wind. I tested CL-07 because I don't have recent data on this laptop, but here are my results for +8, +16, +24 and +32. +24 worked best.

I've also started coding for backtesting
- target ATR
- target the size of the IB so risk=reward
- target (ATR+IB size) / 2
- different strategies for moving stops at certain points of profit
- only trade with-trend or counter-trend
- examine when IB size < 1/2 of ATR, these are points of extreme indecision and seem to produce greater win rates, perhaps trade those with larger positions
- only take IBs inside of some set of std dev-based bands (Keltner, Bollinger) and not if they are outside of the bands. or, if outside, only trade an IB move that is a mean reverting back into the bands

Lots to do...

Woooowwww, you're doing great!!!

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  #479 (permalink)
 jtrade 
near Amsterdam
 
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shodson View Post
Well, today confirmed my biggest fear with the IBs: risking 2 cars at 20-30 each to make +8 +16 requires too high of a win rate ...

Good work, shodson, & thanks to Jeff for another great thread ('don't think I posted to this thread yet).

Whilst I am not trading CL, I am looking at adding these entries to FDAX during the European morning. FDAX and CL are quite similar in their trading characteristics, with great potential for profit and loss. Imho, there simply has to be the possibility of catching the bigger swings to keep the RR acceptable : the odd 100+ tick trade is invaluable in this regard. My present conclusion is that one needs to trade 4 contracts minimum (I know, I know...) : "buy your risk" with 2 off at +8 / whatever, another off at +16 for you guys, +21 to +34 for FDAX, c4 hold for bigger swing / technical exit.

I'm going to run this in SIM from Monday.

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  #480 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Belated report for the morning results of the 2 Inside Bar strategies on CL 15 mins Fri:

2 Short (1 winner and 1 loser)
2 Long (both winners)

$200 before commission

PT/SL @12/16 and all 1-contract trades. When the Short was not working (SL @16), a Long was triggered before completion of the entry bar. It regained some lost ground 12 ticks.

My strategies (sim trades) have been outperforming me so far. I will do better in the coming days .. smile ..

Have a Relaxing weekend everyone.

Beth

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