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THREE SET UPS
Updated: Views / Replies:155,115 / 1,073
Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:243

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THREE SET UPS

  #461 (permalink)
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Thanks, found it now, post #115 of this thread.


cunparis View Post
I did extensive backtesting and posted my results including the optimizations and the equity curves in this thread. You may want to read over my previous posts.

I am not a fan of backtesting because I use a lot of discretion. But this is a really simple setup so I thought backtesting would give me more confidence to trade it. I'm sure results can be improved with discretion but I simply don't have the time to invest right now.


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  #462 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
An inside bar on low volume just above strong support is not bearish at all. Of course it easier to see this with hindsight than in real-time. I just want to come back to the idea of Tony Crabel here, who introduced the concept of a breakout preference, which means that you only take the breakout in a defined direction.

Where can I learn more about Crabel's thoughts on breakouts and breakout preference?

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  #463 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
The problem with the setup is that the inside bar occured just above extremely strong cross-support on declining volume. Declining volume means a low probability that the countertrend continues and breaches the support line.

Most inside bars happen on decreasing volume because they are a sign of market indecision, so I'm not sure filtering out low volume IBs will do any good. Just looking at my charts every IB in July had less volume than its previous bars.

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  #464 (permalink)
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If you take absolute volume, you are certainly right.

Some inside bars have higher volume per range than the preceding expansion bar. These are churn bars. The pattern expansion bar + churn bar can be predictive of a reversal, if other conditions are met, such as below/above support/resistance and overbought/oversold conditions.


shodson View Post
Most inside bars happen on decreasing volume because they are a sign of market indecision, so I'm not sure filtering out low volume IBs will do any good. Just looking at my charts every IB in July had less volume than its previous bars.


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  #465 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Fat Tails View Post
If you take absolute volume, you are certainly right.

Some inside bars have higher volume per range than the preceding expansion bar. These are churn bars. The pattern expansion bar + churn bar can be predictive of a reversal, if other conditions are met, such as below/above support/resistance and overbought/oversold conditions.

Reversal depends on your timeframe.

If price goes up then drops 20 ticks and makes IB then a reversal could be down (to reverse the big move up) or up to reverse the 20 tick drop.

I bracket it because price is in a trading range and I don't know which way it will go. I think continuation is as likely as reversal.

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  #466 (permalink)
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Wow, that looks great and also a good thing to know that the ES actually looks much safer an instrument to trade this.

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  #467 (permalink)
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futurestrader1 View Post
Wow, that looks great and also a good thing to know that the ES actually looks much safer an instrument to trade this.

If you're refering to my post with the profit factor, the trades for ES are NOT inside bar.

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  #468 (permalink)
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This thead is getting a bit cumbersone. You will find information on Tony Crabel in post #409. His book is not easily available, unless you look for illegal copies. He has not published again, but is running a hedge fond with more than USD 1 billion under management. I guess that some of his findings were real. The book is a bit outdated, but a real classic, comparable to Welles Wilder's "New Concepts in Technical Analysis" from 1978.


shodson View Post
Where can I learn more about Crabel's thoughts on breakouts and breakout preference?


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  #469 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Fat Tails View Post
This thead is getting a bit cumbersone. You will find information on Tony Crabel in post #409. His book is not easily available, unless you look for illegal copies. He has not published again, but is running a hedge fond with more than USD 1 billion under management. I guess that some of his findings were real. The book is a bit outdated, but a real classic, comparable to Welles Wilder's "New Concepts in Technical Analysis" from 1978.

The Crabel book is a great book. I don't consider obtaining a copy of something illegal if the something is no longer available for purchase. Neither Crabel nor the publisher will make or lose any money from the PDF copies of his book. If fact the only ones who could lose money would be the speculators who paid $$$ for the book hoping for a greater fool.

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  #470 (permalink)
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Hi cunparis,

if you read between the lines - my statement included the information that

- copies are available
- that these copies are illegal copies
- that Toby Crabel is somewhat richer than we are

I don't make recommendations, how to use this info. I have personally spent more money on good books than on my PC and my trading software, so I do not have a bad conscience to disseminate some ideas.


cunparis View Post
The Crabel book is a great book. I don't consider obtaining a copy of something illegal if the something is no longer available for purchase. Neither Crabel nor the publisher will make or lose any money from the PDF copies of his book. If fact the only ones who could lose money would be the speculators who paid $$$ for the book hoping for a greater fool.


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