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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #31 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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A nice way to start the day........LET'S ROCK AND ROLL !!!!

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  #32 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
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Michael.H View Post
sylvester17.....
All those trades i mentioned meet the criteria that was mentioned before, which was a need for a high volume bar. The trades that you mention at 10:20 was a losing trade that you mentioned yourself and 11:40 do not show that same high volume surge that i annotated on the charts.... you can easily spot those.


I put that chart up not to argue with you, just to point out that using candlestick patterns alone will not make you money, even if high volume is involved......
Also, if you were trading the ES on this and not the CL, you would have nyse tick data, as well as other market breadth indicators showing the skewed activity to the upside for that day, so you could have just avoided short triggers all together and stayed safe... Like i said, you can't do that with CL bc no such thing exists.

Michael,

first thank you very much for your inputs. your ideas make perfect sense to me. I totally agree, trading inside bars with high volume bars alone will probably not making you money. I'm certainly watching for other confirmation as well.

the trade at 10:20 looks like a winner to me. but no reason to argue. always thankful for people with different views. I think that's a good way to improve your trading.

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  #33 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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Nice reversal bar.....+8+1......also an example of moving my stop too quickly after my first objective has been met.

High priority news at 7:00 PST and Natural gas report at 7:30 PST

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  #34 (permalink)
 Eric j 
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I use this to point out the highest volume across the last 20 bars . You can change the lookback if you want , just open the code , change the # and recompile . Put it in the same panel as volume . Thought maybe you could use it for this strategy .

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  #35 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Nice reversal bar.....+8+1......also an example of moving my stop too quickly after my first objective has been met.

Have you considered using ATR-based targets and stops? As market volatility expands and contracts, perhaps so should your expectations.

Also, instead of going +1 on the runner, try going -50% to give it more room. You'll give up some of your profit on the first car if it reverses you out but you'll still walk away with some profit and you're more likely to catch those bigger moves when they come.

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  #36 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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OK....gas news is over and we're coming off the low of day....+8+1

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  #37 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Hey Jeff, good to see you're exploring and finding new stuff. I was suspicious so I pulled up a CL chart and used my inside bar paintbar to mark them and I was surprised to see that they have been working over the past few weeks.

I just have one question: do you take the trade if the risk is too high? On a few bars I see the inside bar can be 30+ ticks so that's a stop to make 8 & 16 ticks. Not a good ratio. The win rate is high but catching a few losers would really hurt.

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  #38 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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cunparis View Post
Hey Jeff, good to see you're exploring and finding new stuff. I was suspicious so I pulled up a CL chart and used my inside bar paintbar to mark them and I was surprised to see that they have been working over the past few weeks.

I just have one question: do you take the trade if the risk is too high? On a few bars I see the inside bar can be 30+ ticks so that's a stop to make 8 & 16 ticks. Not a good ratio. The win rate is high but catching a few losers would really hurt.


Greeting Cunparis,

Excellent point.....you are correct.......the R/R is sometimes crappy............BUT........ keep in mind.....this isn't IT..........this is a first step.......if the entries PROVE to be good (over 92% win rate so far) THEN I will add another contract and another target AND in so doing improve the R/R.

There have been a few suggestions that I want to look into regarding targets.......ATR being one that I think deserves investigation.

Jeff

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  #39 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Cunparis,

Your point had been raised previously in the Jeff CCI thread.....see post #375.........just reduce size to accommodate large stop size.

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  #40 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Greeting Cunparis,

Excellent point.....you are correct.......the R/R is sometimes crappy............BUT........ keep in mind.....this isn't IT..........this is a first step.......if the entries PROVE to be good (over 92% win rate so far) THEN I will add another contract and another target AND in so doing improve the R/R.

There have been a few suggestions that I want to look into regarding targets.......ATR being one that I think deserves investigation.

Jeff

I'm on the fence about having multiple targets. Because that 3rd contract you add will hurt when it gets stopped out. If you determine that you can get more than 16 you could just make your second target 20 or whatever.

I looked at a year ago and I found more stops than I do in the past few weeks. I am not actively trading CL but for ES the past few weeks have been unusually more likely to be trend days and therefore less likely hood of a stop out.

I'll stay tuned to track your progress. If someone is interested, it'd be interesting to write a back test for this. Use a 1 minute bar to see inside the bars. I'm guessing it'd be profitable recently but not over the past year.

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