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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #251 (permalink)
 famed 
Jeddah
 
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Thx for a great thread, Jeff! I'm on page 10 still so please excuse me if any of this has already been posted
The best setup for ES I have found is the engulfing pattern on the 10 minute chart. Stop is 1 tick above/below the engulfed bar and profit targets are 2 points and 4 points.
I got this from secretsoftraders.com - I'll post the pdf, which has more detail and examples, when I'm on my other computer.
Anyway, this setup only occurs about 2-3 times a day including globex so if you guys are making an indicator for outside bars my request is to please include option for audio alert. thx

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  #252 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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wgreenie View Post
I tested the Inside Bar Strategies on 6E 09-10 with the results per enclosed.

Testing Timeline: 2 weeks
Trading Hours: 9:00 am to 11:00 am EST
PT/SL: 10 and 20 respectively (Trade No 3 on the InsideBarLong log should be a losing trade -$250 unless SL @25. I need to fix my strategies as SL seems not working properly.)

I went through the chart manually. All Inside bar trades were captured on the logs.

Very impressive Jeff!

Beth

How did you get 10 & 20? Did you optimize it? Be careful with a time period as small as 2 weeks and only a few trades. Anything can be made profitable with a small sample size.

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  #253 (permalink)
 steve2222 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Hi Steve,

Thanks for your comments regarding trading times for 6e.......although I find it hard to believe that anything moves more "quickly" than CL. LOL

In your comment you referenced 3-5 am.......which time zone?

Thanks, Jeff

Hi Jeff,

The 3am to 5am is USA ET.

My reference to the 6E moving better than the CL is in respect of the overnight period, in particular, 3am to 5am ET.

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  #254 (permalink)
 jmacn 
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Many Thanks for this great thread Jeff.
Steve I am from Australia & my obseravtions of both CL & 6e out of hours trading concurrs with what you have found. Volume definitely great in 6e & moves at least as good if not better than CL.
Regards John

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  #255 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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jmacn View Post
Many Thanks for this great thread Jeff.
Steve I am from Australia & my obseravtions of both CL & 6e out of hours trading concurrs with what you have found. Volume definitely great in 6e & moves at least as good if not better than CL.
Regards John

I also trade Euro during 3-5am ny time. after 5am I find it slows down so I go away until 7:30-8am when it picks up before NY "open".

CL is not very liquid until just before the open.

euro is a great market. Has more volume than crude. but I'm not sure if jeff's 3 setups work as well on euro.

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  #256 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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cunparis View Post
How did you get 10 & 20? Did you optimize it? Be careful with a time period as small as 2 weeks and only a few trades. Anything can be made profitable with a small sample size.

Hi Cunparis

Thanks for the tips. My 10/20 PT/SL was based on my sim-trading experience of a strategy on 6E months ago (not profitable though). I have not traded 6E before and was just playing with my newly created strategies (to see if the SL bug happens on other instruments) for fun (nothing serious).

Your testing and analysis are substantially professional and in-depth. I will not post mine anymore .. sorry ..

Beth

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  #257 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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wgreenie View Post
Hi Cunparis

Thanks for the tips. My 10/20 PT/SL was based on my sim-trading experience of a strategy on 6E months ago (not profitable though). I have not traded 6E before and was just playing with my newly created strategies (to see if the SL bug happens on other instruments) for fun (nothing serious).

Your testing and analysis are substantially professional and in-depth. I will not post mine anymore .. sorry ..

I welcome you to post your tests. I just want to help make sure you don't overoptimize or curve fit it. That's all. I fell into that trap and lost a lot of time & money so I hope to avoid the same fate for others. If you just picked 10/20 and tested it that's great. If you optimize it and determine that 10/20 would be optimal for the test period (2 weeks in your case) then that's risky.

Robert Pardo has an excellent book on this. I recommend everyone read it before touching an optimizer. it's like playing with fire.

Amazon.com: The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies…

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  #258 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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still working on inside bar. I realized I had a bug in my breakeven stop algorithm and that changed results a bit.

is it better to use one target or two? and should it be 10 (or 8), 20(or 16), or a combination?



From this it seems everything is profitable it's just a matter of exchanging a high win rate for a lower profit if you take 8, or if you want max profit and take a lower win rate then you can pick 20 (or higher).

Or you can split the middle and do a combination 8/16 or 10/20 whatever. In fact that's what scaling out does, it splits the middle of the two performances giving you a combination. 28 or 38? split it and take 33k.

Maybe I can work on outside bar now..

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  #259 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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cunparis View Post
I welcome you to post your tests. I just want to help make sure you don't overoptimize or curve fit it. That's all. I fell into that trap and lost a lot of time & money so I hope to avoid the same fate for others. If you just picked 10/20 and tested it that's great. If you optimize it and determine that 10/20 would be optimal for the test period (2 weeks in your case) then that's risky.

Robert Pardo has an excellent book on this. I recommend everyone read it before touching an optimizer. it's like playing with fire.

Amazon.com: The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies…

Thanks Cunparis for your further guidance and suggestion. For the record, I don't know how to use the Optimizer and have no idea on the curve thing etc etc. It's too advanced for me LOL! I enjoy sharing your analysis and my trillion thanks again for your generous sharing!

Beth

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  #260 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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wgreenie View Post
Thanks Cunparis for your further guidance and suggestion. For the record, I don't know how to use the Optimizer and have no idea on the curve thing etc etc. It's too advanced for me LOL! I enjoy sharing your analysis and my trillion thanks again for your generous sharing!

Beth

Best to stay away from the optimizer. It's like crack. very addictive.

You're welcome. Glad to help.

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