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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #221 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Hi Jeff

I couldn't help playing with it one more time before a break. I added a pair of {} and it works .. Hurrah! Now I will zozozo well tonight and not having price labels "flying everywhere" in my dream .. smile ..

Beth

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  #222 (permalink)
 Zoethecus 
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wgreenie View Post
Hi Jeff

I couldn't help playing with it one more time before a break. I added a pair of {} and it works .. Hurrah! Now I will zozozo well tonight and not having price labels "flying everywhere" in my dream .. smile ..

Beth

Beth, can you post the revised indicator? Thank you very much.

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  #223 (permalink)
 shodson 
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gtichauer View Post
Shodson I don't know how u plan to test this but an idea, also according to Cunparis comments, may be to enter 1 ct on entry and 1 ct on a 50%/75% adverse excursion....so the cost of a full stop is reduced, there is room for a pullback after entry, which if deep enough could play in our favor......target for the second could be the entry point, and target for the first ct stop size......

That's something worth testing, but having traded gaps and breakouts trying to enter during an adverse excursion is nice when it works but you also miss out on the ones that take off and don't look back, so you just have to do some cost/benefit analysis of that. Also, requiring a breakout to be a close outside of a range instead of using a stop order can help/hurt. Same for stops, require a close below your stop, helps prevent head fakes and market makers running stops, but leaves you open to larger losses when they aren't head fakes.

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  #224 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Zoethecus View Post
Beth, can you post the revised indicator? Thank you very much.

You are most welcome Zoe. It's available from the Elite section now:

https://futures.io/free_downloads/vip_elite_circle/

Beth

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  #225 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
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Beth - where did you get the D3spotterzshaff

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  #226 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
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emini_Holy_Grail View Post
Beth - where did you get the D3spotterzshaff

Hi Emini Holy Grail

I believe it's one of the many D3 indicators in the zip file as follows:

(Post #5 on Page 1)

Enjoy!

Beth

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  #227 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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I did a little research on trades during lunch time in NYC. This time of day usually has low volume. The research was from 5/21 through 6/17 CL 7-10 contract.

20 trading days

8 days no signals (that is "three set up" signals)

3 losing trades

9 winning trades

55% of the time there is nothing happening or you are losing.....the other 45% of the time you winning......

So, it's a toss up. I think that I would like the odds a little more in my favor.

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  #228 (permalink)
 steve2222 
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Jeff Castille View Post
OK.......+68 ticks for this morning.

Unfortunately it could have been more but I screwed up two times.

Actually three.

The first trade I have NO signal that was in my plan (thought we had a double bottom at the open)......the trade was slow to develop....I decide to exit at breakeven. Shortly after the market moves to my first target.

Next trade....I decide I have a reversal bar and I go short +8+16 but.......I hit something on the DOM that triggers ANOTHER trade.....I quickly exit +3+3.

Next trade +8+16...no screw ups

Next trade....enter trade and see that I have NO ATM strategy on the trade !! I immediately close the trade+7+7......or course this is the strongest move of the morning and I get about half of what I should have........

I can't believe I am capable of this many screw ups in such a short time. But.....+68 ticks....I should screw up like this everyday!! lol

It's quadruple witching day......so I'm done trading for today.

Roonius finished my new indicator for me......it's the reversals v6.1. This is an indicator that helps to identify the reversal bars. It features an adjustable wick %......so if we are looking for a bar at the end of an up/down move where the wick is 2/3 of the bar......it will paint it for you. Also, it will paint the outside bar in real time instead of waiting until bar close. The inside bar and reversal bar paint at bar close.

I'll test it out and post it if it checks out.

Have a great weekend !!

Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Wasn't trade 1 an Outside bar setup anyway.

I know you took it as a DB, but you would/should/could have taken as an Outside bar - or am I missing something?

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  #229 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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steve2222 View Post
Hi Jeff,

Wasn't trade 1 an Outside bar setup anyway.

I know you took it as a DB, but you would/should/could have taken as an Outside bar - or am I missing something?

Hi Steve,

On the trade in question........the entry bar low was equal to the previous bar low......it did NOT move "outside" the previous bar low therefore I would NOT call it an "outside" bar.

Jeff

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  #230 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Hi Steve,

On the trade in question........the entry bar low was equal to the previous bar low......it did NOT move "outside" the previous bar low therefore I would NOT call it an "outside" bar.

Jeff

I thought you still took those. It can be seen as a double bottom instead of an outside bar. I'll have to test that.

I'm doing some testing now. Since I'm posting a message I'll post my current results.

This is inside bar only, past 5 months (I don't have tick data further than 6 months and I'm using tick bars to get more precise results). Trading from 9-noon. I found the optimal target is 17 ticks which is in agreement with Jeff's 16 ticks so I'm using 16.

I next tested the breakeven stop. This is just one contract. I ran optimizer for breakeven stop and the results tell me it's better to put it between 7-16 ticks with 15 being the optimal for highest profit and 10 being optimal for max profit factor. This is very close to Jeff's 8 ticks.

So far Jeff's values hold up statistically over the past 5 months.

Now I want to test putting breakeven stop at -8 ticks to see if that helps.

Remember this does NOT take into account news just for simplicity. The drawdown could be caused by trading around news events. I'm just doing some stats on the trade management.



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