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THREE SET UPS


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THREE SET UPS

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  #141 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Ok I'm an idiot. I can see how our typical reflexes and beliefs can be counter-intuitive to trading.

The first setup was inside bar after a huge down bar. I didn't want to take the short side because I thought it was already oversold. Well I missed out on 24 ticks on that one.

I did take the second one and got +8 and stopped out be on the 2nd. I think having a stop at breakeven is too close. price has cleared a S/R level and it often pulls back to the s/r level. i think putting it -8 would give it more room. in this case today it would have hit the second target. but in others maybe you end up with 0 instead of 8. I'm still thinking about the best way to handle this.





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  #142 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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cunparis View Post
Ok I'm an idiot. I can see how our typical reflexes and beliefs can be counter-intuitive to trading.

The first setup was inside bar after a huge down bar. I didn't want to take the short side because I thought it was already oversold. Well I missed out on 24 ticks on that one.

I did take the second one and got +8 and stopped out be on the 2nd. I think having a stop at breakeven is too close. price has cleared a S/R level and it often pulls back to the s/r level. i think putting it -8 would give it more room. in this case today it would have hit the second target. but in others maybe you end up with 0 instead of 8. I'm still thinking about the best way to handle this.





I know what you mean.........I just had to tell myself NO THINKING !!! LOL All of the thinking has been done when you are NOT trading. Once you are trading all you do is execute YOUR plan. That's how to "grade" yourself.

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  #143 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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Hey Lolu,

I see 8 trades in 6E.........7 winners 1 loser. Are you still tracking these and coupling the three set ups with the volume?

You probably would have reached your daily profit goal before the one losing trade I think.

Just checking in.

Jeff

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  #144 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Jeff Castille View Post
I know what you mean.........I just had to tell myself NO THINKING !!! LOL All of the thinking has been done when you are NOT trading. Once you are trading all you do is execute YOUR plan. That's how to "grade" yourself.

Computers (strats) do a better job of not thinking and just following a plan. Just sayin' ...

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  #145 (permalink)
 Dragon 
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Something like this maybe?

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  #146 (permalink)
 lolu 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Hey Lolu,

I see 8 trades in 6E.........7 winners 1 loser. Are you still tracking these and coupling the three set ups with the volume?

You probably would have reached your daily profit goal before the one losing trade I think.

Just checking in.

Jeff

Yeah, I hit the one at 7:00am GMT+1 and the one at 7:15am GMT+1 (see attached screenshot).

Jeff, is that Doji-like candle (with a little yellow line color) a valid INSIDE BAR ? To me, it is; so I pulled the trigger; and it was cooooool.

Lolu

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  #147 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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Modified Inside Bars

An inside bar stands for a symmetrical triangle, which is consolidation pattern. I want to see some reduced volatility before the breakout occurs. My indicator therefore does not plot an inside bar, if its range is larger than the range two bars ago.

-> I use the other end of the inside bar +- some ticks as a stop, so the low range inside bars get me a better return-to-risk ratio.
-> Breakout works best after reduced volatiliy, if volatility is not reduced you might just see a section of a swing

Narrow Range Bars

I also use NR7 narrow range bars. If they are inside bars they stand for a symmetric triangle or a pennant , if they are not, they stand for the final section of a flag or a wedge.

Dojis

Dojis stand for indecision. As the close is near the open, the doji also stands for a trading range. Two or three consecutive dojis often precede a breakout.

Indicator

The indicator below shows

-> orange diamond = inside bar
-> light blue diamond = narrow range bar
-> magenta diamond = inside narrow range bar
-> white body candle = doji
-> hollow candles = candles that close inside an established value area
-> red and lime candles = candles that show a shift in perceived value

Example: 5 min chart for GC 08-10

There were 13 setups this afternoon, 6 of them worked well, whereas 7 were failures. Out of the seven failures there were 4 single failures and 3 double failures:

The first three failures were setups against the trend. On the chart you can see four bear raids (red bars) with increasing range -> no good idea to catch a falling knife in a parabolic down move. The volume indicator shows that each of the expansion bars qualified as a climax bar (blue) followed by a churn bar (yellow). But a churn bar is worth nothing if not confirmed by a trendline break and a retest of the low, as one climax can be followed by another climax. Each climax showed higher volume than the preceding one, not easy to exhaust the bear.

The failure [4] occured after the downward trendline was broken and prices had made a higher low. This was a classical long setup (second entry) and should not be shorted.

The failure [5] occured at resistance created by the trading range.

The failure [6] occured after the new trend had just been confirmed through a new higher low.

The failure [7] occured during the noon time.

The double failures were all failures for 1 to 3 ticks, deliberate setups to lure traders into the wrong direction. This shows that an entry one tick above or below the narrow range or inside bar is not recommended, but that you need a margin of 3 ticks (specific for GC) to enter the breakout trade.

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  #148 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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lolu View Post
Yeah, I hit the one at 7:00am GMT+1 and the one at 7:15am GMT+1 (see attached screenshot).

Jeff, is that Doji-like candle (with a little yellow line color) a valid INSIDE BAR ? To me, it is; so I pulled the trigger; and it was cooooool.

Lolu

Yes.......inside is inside.........and coooooool is GOOD!!

Nice work!!

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  #149 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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+20 today.......a strange thing happened on my first trade.........I usually set a buy or sell stop a few seconds before the signal bar has finished forming. Well.......it was 11 seconds BEFORE what I thought was going to be an inside bar had formed.......BOOM.....my trade was triggered.....first target hit....stop moved.....and it turned out to NOT be an inside bar....that has never happened before.

So, just two trades today . But......as you can see every signal was a winner. (4)

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  #150 (permalink)
 lolu 
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A good THREE SET UPS @ London/NY overlap. Right ? So, I successfully took the trades.

Lolu

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