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  #1071 (permalink)
Honolulu, Hawaii
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Trading: TF
bluemele's Avatar
Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 3,803 given, 2,841 received

einstein View Post
Just found this thread and have read my way through 50%. First thanks to Jeff for the thread and to all contributors. I do have one question and I hope that all those who have had some experience with the 15M CL IB setup can respond. Altho the method seems have a relatively high win ratio the Risk/reward is the opposite of what most traders recommend. For example I have read that most professional and successful traders have a win ratio of no more than 40%. The reason they are profitable in the long run is they set targets of 2,3,4 and some times more than their stop-loss. A 100 tick win in CL makes up for many 10 tick stopouts. In light of the large stoploss position dictated in using a 15M chart, is this setup really profitable in the longrun? Does the realtively high win ratio compensate enough for the inverse risk reward I see many are using? Thanks for any insights you can offer this newbie.

I think it depends when you trade it. Sometimes it does, sometimes it has challenges. The market ebb's and flow's and I personally do not believe that you have always this or always that.

So your IB's will work sometimes, sometimes not and sometimes they will go through larger DD periods.

I think the key with IB's in my opinion is to line up several other price action confirmations. Price Patterns, Trendlines, Support & Resistance as well as Fib's and even volume if that floats your boat.

I believe IB's can be dangerous from a mechanical perspective. If you think about an IB trade it is really just a consolidation of price and a breakout. You will find that 2011 was a great year for breakouts due to volatility which also increases your stops and affects r:r. A TON OF PEOPLE fade inside bars because they know that is what the 'big guys' do to screw up the IB traders or breakout traders.

The key of all of this to me is to use common sense and if you see a breakout of the IB, wait for it to retrace, bounce of resistance/support and consider the trade there and also verify momentum, intensity, even some fundamentals if EUR is getting killed like it is now, then IB shorts are probably a better bet than IB long's etc...

COMMON TRADING SENSE + IB's = could be profitable.

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  #1072 (permalink)
Honolulu, Hawaii
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
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bluemele's Avatar
Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
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this is a good looking IB on the daily GBPUSD.

1. With the trend.

2. Perfect line-up of trendline with slight breakout for fade back short. Also cross-trendline resistance from bottom to top.

3. Looks like exhaustion move with deep retracement from last pivot. 76% retracement off of pullback etc..

4. If it breaks through the IB bar, then it also is breaking through a bit of support from previous price action so it is a little bit of clear sailing for at least 80 or so pips.

5. Stochastic looks good as well for continuation short.

6. Fundamentally makes sense considering weakness of EUR and other European currencies etc..

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  #1073 (permalink)
Posts: 1 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 2 given, 0 received

I know this thread has been dead for more than a year already but I just want to say a big thanks to Jeff and the rest who had created and contributed to this thread. I am a beginner and not a very active trader (still trying to learn). And because I've made more losses than profits to date, I began to lose interest in trading but that was until I found this thread recently. It is a simple yet fairly high prob system. I've been doing sim trades for the last few weeks and the results have been promising so far. I've found that the IB trades (compared to the other 2 setups) have been more reliable in generating profitable trades overall.

Many thanks once again to Jeff and all - you've contributed to my learning experience.

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  #1074 (permalink)
Phoenix, AZ
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: Currency Futures & Oil
Posts: 3 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 14 given, 2 received

Just spent a few days reading this entire thread, very interesting and insightful - I started trading with SIM 2 days ago and took my first 'live' trade this morning with +10.

Looking forward to continuing to implement this strategy in my trading!

Thanks to all who contributed!


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