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"Less is More": Permeant's trading journal (CL & ES)

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"Less is More": Permeant's trading journal (CL & ES)

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  #31 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

Today was a bad day that started off with losing on a couple of reasonable trades that didn't work out and then continuing to place bad bets on breakouts on what turned out to be a narrow range bound day for CL.

Trade 1: Short CL on bar 5 (Opening reversal) (-23 ticks) and short on bar 7 (L2) (-17 ticks)

Bar 3 came within one tick of closing the overnight gap, so I took the reversal short. But instead of keeping my stop above the signal bar (as I would normally), I kept it a little higher to give it room to close. Then it went one tick above, closed the gap, and came back down for a second entry short, which I took (while the first trade was still on). By the time I was stopped out on both of them, with 7 tick slippage, this cost me a total of -40 ticks. Adding on to a losing position on a bad signal bar (for the L2) might have been a mistake but ok, not horrible.

What is terrible are the next three trades. Given the fact that I'm over my daily loss limit should keep me out of any trading for awhile, if not for the day. But no...

Trade 2: Long CL on bar 9 (Breakout pullback) (-22 ticks)

Hmm, since our shorts lost and there was a sharp bull spike with a lot of slippage, why not bet on going up to test the swing high? Never mind that bar 9 was awful follow up that doesn't show any bullish strength at all. In what is a pure and simple revenge trade, I lost another 22 ticks in no time.

Did I quit now? Of course not.

Trade 3: Short CL on bar 13 (BO?) (-21 ticks)

Since the BO to the top failed and we are in a hole, let's see if can avenge ourselves on the short side. It went +15 ticks in my favor on a BO, then failed right away. Did I scalp the trade for 10 ticks or at least move the stop to BE at that point? No, waited for the bitter confirmation of having my original stop taken out for another 21 tick loss.

OK, so far we are looking at an 83 tick loss, should we quit? No, we need to make some money back in a hurry by doubling the position on the next opportunity, which should come along any time now.

Trade 4: Long CL on bar 22 (BOPB) (-19 ticks each on two contracts)

I'm too sick to even summarize what I was thinking (or not). I can confirm that it was me sitting there in front of the computer, clicking buttons, and giving money away to the HFTs.

Even now, after tilting off a whopping 121 ticks, I'm still itching to trade and make some money back. But with great difficulty I forced myself to call it a day. About 1.5 hours too late, but better late than never.

Summary, worst trading day in a long, long time. I thought I was better than this, but clearly I'm not.

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  #32 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

After tilting off 121 ticks yesterday, I seriously considered taking a day off, but thought it would be a good exercise to force myself to trade as I'm supposed to trade, but on a very short leash - expecting to quit on a losing trade or any sign of losing control.

Trade 1: Short CL on bar 3 (Opening reversal) (+10 ticks each on two contracts)

The position sizing on this was a mistake - I still had the default position of 2 contracts from the last revenge trade of yesterday and realized it only after I entered. But that position moved so quickly in my favor that I left it as is. I scalped out both for 10 ticks because the first bar was pretty small and yesterday was such a small range day, I was not expecting this to go far. But nice to get 20 ticks to start off the recovery day.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 9 (L2) (+20 ticks)

Back to one contract now (my current default until I'm consistently showing a profit). L2 with a very good signal bar and got to my target very quickly.

There was another L2 after this that I didn't take because we're seeing a lot of bullish signs and haven't touched the EMA yet - I would've taken if it were at the EMA (which it was on the globex). Anyway, it would've worked but I didn't chase it down after I missed the initial entry.

Trade 3: Long CL on bar 28 (BO) (+20 ticks)

I"m not happy with this entry as I lose money on this more often than not, but the spike was so sharp that I got in before I thought things through and even before the bar closed. It went 20 ticks against me within the bar before it closed but my stop was far enough away (as it should be on this trade) that I stayed with it for a BO attempt above the HOD and got out for a 20 tick profit before the test of the bear trend line. Even though this particular trade worked out, I really have no business taking it at the time I did and I could just as easily have lost 40 ticks on it.

Trade 4: Short CL on bar 36 (Second reversal attempt at the HOD) (+20 ticks)

I took the second entry short after the failed bull BO and got to my target very quickly.

Given the strength of the bull spike, I expected there might be some follow through later, but didn't take any more trades after this as it was after noon in the middle of the day's range. Bullish API report after hours that I didn't stick around for, but the signs were there in the day's price action.

My reads of the price action were pretty good today - all my trades got to my targets within 3 bars and a trade ratio of 2.5 for the day - I made 80 ticks on a fairly narrow range day with some surprise swings. I consider myself fortunate to have had a good day (trading to plan) to follow up a really bad one. I had only one trade I shouldn't have taken - though it worked out to be profitable, that was the only impulse move that I should've avoided.

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