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"Less is More": Permeant's trading journal (CL & ES)
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"Less is More": Permeant's trading journal (CL & ES)

  #21 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/1/2017: One good trade makes up for 3 bad ones (1-3)

Today was a mixed bag to launch the new month. Another couple of ok entries poorly managed, one bad entry and one good trade that made up for all of that.

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Trade 1: Short CL on bar 4 (opening reversal) (-5 ticks)

Bar 1 went up through the bear trend line, so we might possibly go down to retest it as well as close the opening gap. This is also at the top of the tight trading range on friday and the R1 pivot level. Instead of going down quickly this started forming a ledge which is a bull flag, so I got nervous and moved my stop to beyond the signal bar (rather than the swing high). Stopped out but with 1 tick slippage in my favor, so likely coming back down, so the exit was a mistake.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 10 (double top, opening reversal second entry) (-5 ticks)

Shorted below the double top with a good entry bar, but the follow-up bar was a bull and the next bar was a H2 (and we still have the ledge despite the impressive bear bar 10), so got out for a small loss when the H2 signal triggered. Will likely stay out of this choppy price action until after the EIA report.

Trade 3: Short CL on bar 15 (failed H2, continuation of opening reversal and double top) (-12 ticks)

Sort of a revenge trade since I was faked out of the last two trades. Also bad because I'm shorting at the bottom of a TR only 15 minutes ahead of the report, but decent chance to close the gap after the double top and failed H2. It might tread water until the report, so I might have to get out before the target or the stop is hit. Nervous w/ the wedge bull flag on bar 16 but I'm holding still. Stopped out (of course) - I'm such a moron. If I just managed my first trade correctly, I'd be BE right now instead of being chopped up to pieces. But this lesson was not free.

Pretty poor start to the day - I should probably quit right now since I'm close to the daily loss limit but I'll wait to see if a good trade comes up after the 9:30 report.

Trade 4: Short CL on EIA report reversal (+23 ticks)

Shorted below the second bar of the report after a weak attempt up and a good signal bar down. Probably will go down to measured move (and the bull TL or the PP pivot level), but I'm keeping my target at gap close. Stalled a bit at +18 (HOD yesterday) but got to the target and MM. Almost even for the day (+1 tick profit less commissions).

Not taking A2 short on bar 32 because the pullback from bars 25-28 was pretty sharp and I'm still smarting over the first three losing trades of the day. But it would've worked. This is the other problem with bad trades early on - they make you second guess yourself out of good trades later in the day.

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  #22 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/2/2017: Trading the plan, good results (2-0)

Today was a good day per "Less is More" philosophy - two good entries, well managed, both winners.

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Trade 1: Long CL on bar 3 (opening reversal) (+20 ticks)

Targets above (BO point 53.12 and top of bar 1), profit target is +20 ticks (top of bar 1). Entry bar and the next two bars are up. It went 9 ticks against me to the bottom of the entry bar, but the L1 hasn't triggered, so that's a good sign. Now 6 bars in favor - each bar threatening to go down in the first few minutes, then closing up, so I think the chances are good that the top of bar 1 will be tested. Bar 9 is a nice spike up to reach target. And it keeps going up to the higher targets, but I'm happy with the first trade in the black at intended target.

L2 triggered close to the top of bar 1 but not taking it given the strength of the first leg up. Would've given a scalp profit of +10, but that's ok - when in doubt, stay out! L4 and A2 triggered on bar 24, but not taking it because we're still putting in higher highs and lows. Indeed it failed and ran stops above. Question is whether it can continue to run higher to MM or come back down to test the LOD.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 28 (failed bull BO, EMA gap bar, double top near the top of the day's range, L2 on the 15-min chart) (+20 ticks)

Looking to test the swing low (or the LOD) given the large opening gap and the strength of the first two bars. Initial stop above the failed BO. Entry bar is outside up but closed down, so I held through that. Got to +14 quickly, closing below the bull trend line, but stalling there. Stop now at BE (above the strong bear BO bar 30). Feeling anxious about risking the scalp profit but forcing myself to practice not exiting on emotional impulse. Target filled after waiting for 8 more bars. Going down further to test LOD but I'm happy with reaching the intended target.

After two winning trades, I'm content and done for the day. Good morale booster for trading to the plan.


Last edited by permeant; March 3rd, 2017 at 12:22 PM. Reason: typos
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  #23 (permalink)
Phoenix Arizona
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: MotiveWave
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 125 since May 2013
Thanks: 325 given, 161 received


I really like that first trade especially. I was looking for shorts, but I was sitting there thinking that the market had run out of steam to the downside. I just didn't have an entry for a long. And kudos for sticking to your plan/idea on the trade...I know that is not easy!

Good trading
Danny

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  #24 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/3/2017: One bad entry but small profit for the day (1-2)

One bad entry (trade #2) cost me some unnecessary ticks but eked out a profit for the day later in the morning.

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CL Opening reversal signal on bar 3, but not taking it because it might test the bottom before it goes up.

Another reversal signal on CL bar 5 (also L2 but above the EMA) but overall choppy PA. It failed on bar 8 and zoomed up - not chasing after it until we see if there is some follow through or PB or reversal.

Trade 1: Long CL on bar 12 (Breakout pullback) (-2 ticks)

Given the successful opening reversal and the failed L2, this might go up to test yesterday's HOD. Quickly went up to +14 and trying to reverse. Stop still below signal bar 12 (-10 ticks). Instead of scratching the trade at BE I'm still risking 10 ticks to see if we go up 20. Hit BE and going back up. On the second reversal bar at the top, moved my stop to below the last big bull bar (-2 ticks). Might be a mistake to exit here, but wary of a big double top here. Better would've been to take scalp profit at +10 (after it hit my BE once) or move stop to BE. But all in all I'm ok with this trade despite the small loss.

Trade 2: Long CL on bar 16 (Breakout pullback, sort of H2 if I look at bar 14 as H1) (-14 ticks)

After being stopped out on the first trade, got in again on the next bar. Likely a mistake to enter H1 after the two strong bear bars and so soon after my previous entry failed (possibly a revenge trade). Stopped out immediately on the next bar. Stop might be too tight (should be under bar 10 low?) or need to reevaluate whether we're still going up. I think another push up is likely, but need to wait for a real 2-legged pullback (may be to the EMA) or a strong reversal. Should sit and watch for a bit instead of overtrading and getting chopped up.

Not taking H2 on bar 18 - not a strong signal and we haven't tested the BO point yet. It was a 1-tick failure, so that was the right call.

Trade 3: Long CL on bar 20 (A2, double bottom) (+28 ticks)

Bouncing strongly at the EMA/BO point. Outside up bar, so risky but good potential for the next push up that I'm still expecting. Target HOD yesterday. Immediately went up (only -1 tick MAE) and pulled back at +20 so some traders clearly took profits there, but not us. Target still the same and stop at BE now (but realistically will exit at +10 or a reversal bar). Target reached on the 5th bar. Subsequently went up to MM of the pullback but I'm content with this outcome.

After this, CL entered a 3-hour long trading range that was only 15 ticks tall, so no great trades. Thought about entering on double bottom on bar 52 but too risky in the middle of the narrow trading range and didn't think it was a high probability set up. No more trades for the rest of the day. Pleased to make a profit for the day after the mistake on entry #2.

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  #25 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/6/2017: Death by small cuts (-17 ticks)

Today was not a super bad day of trading but I did enough things wrong that the accumulated small losses added up to a good chunk of change.

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Trade 1: Short CL on bar 7 (Opening reversal, double top at Friday's HOD) (-5 ticks)

Looking to test the bottom of the Friday afternoon's trading range. Extended targets below (THU Close and LOD) if this breaks down below the range. Good looking entry bar, extending below the last three bars. Consolidating the reversal in the next 3 bars - failing to even come up with a H1, so that is a good sign. Finally broke below the double bottm on bars 2-3 and testing the bull trend line and the 15-min EMA (as well as the day's open). Stop now at -1 (above the last BE bar) because we don't want to hold through a retest of the top. Looks like we're channeling down from the entry bar. Went down to +19 and bounced strongly with a spike to take out the stop with 4 tick slippage. Didn't even have time to react to adjust the stop - good trade despite the surprise ending. Thought of getting long on bar 14 close but didn't want to revenge trade.

Another double top - need to get short but can't find a good set up - worried about getting into a revenge trade after the failure of trade 1. Retraced all the way down to the bottom of the bull spike.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 26 (BO) (+1 tick)

Anticipating BO below the bull spike. Bad follow through bars, so scratched at +1. Might be a mistake but need to wait for a strong BO or a strong bottom. Big risk of overtrading and getting chopped up here. It did get down to my original target on trade1. <sigh> Feeling a little frustrated but that is a sign that I need to be more patient. I should've just avoided taking this trade and waited for a better signal.

Trade 3: Short CL on bar 35 (BOPB) (-6 ticks)

A low probability short looking for a breakdown with a small risk. Didn't work - stop possibly too tight, but there is a big risk of a reversal here. (Perhaps a sign that I shouldn't be taking this trade, huh?) I need to avoid these trades because I always seem to cherry pick the bad ones.

Trade 4: Short CL on bar 44 (A2) (+1 tick)

I'm happy with this entry. Good reversal bar at the EMA and the bottom of the bull spike (also double top with bar 32). Entry bar is a doji, so uncertain, but at least not a bull bar, so not too bad. The current bottom is not very strong - might test it and go beyond to pivot S1 (also swing low FRI bar 20). Triggered higher low long, but holding short since still below the EMA on all time frames (5/15/30/60 min as well as daily). Scratched at +1 after choppy PA and another bull bar at the mini bull trend line because of the risk of higher low long (as subsequently happened).

At this point I was considering giving up for the day since today has been frustrating. But not before taking another ill-advised entry that I should know too well not to take.

Trade 5: Long CL on bar 58 (BOPB) (-8 ticks)

This is the kind of trade that I'm working on not taking for this journal - it rarely works and mostly just ends up making me feel stupid. Even when it works, half the time I mismanage it and exit with a loss or BE, so I should just be avoiding these. I was suckered in by the failures of all the bear signals in the last few hours and thought (for a second) that there might be some momentum up here - silly me. Lesson learned again.

I gave up for the day after this.

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  #26 (permalink)
Phoenix Arizona
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: MotiveWave
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 125 since May 2013
Thanks: 325 given, 161 received


permeant View Post

I gave up for the day after this.

I sure wish I had given up earlier LOL.

Danny

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  #27 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/7/2017: Difficult day (+1 tick)

I didn't trade that well today (though not very poorly either). I was right on the direction for the day (shorting all day long), but all I have to show for it is a +1 tick gross profit and a net loss after commissions. It was a lost opportunity and a relatively cheap learning day.

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Trade 1: Short CL on bar 4 (opening reversal) (-11 ticks)

Entry at resistance (3/1 LOD and trend channel line). A bit risky since there are targets above very near (3/1 close gap and R2 pivot) but worth taking. Got stopped out with 1 tick slippage.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 6 (Second reversal attempt) (+4 ticks)

After the stop run on the last trade, it came within a couple of ticks of closing the 3/1 gap (as well as R2 pivot), then came right back down and triggered a second entry short. I took it as a legitimate entry (and not a revenge trade) as a failed bull breakout at resistance (even though a little risky since the entry bar is an outside down bar). But we have room on the downside for a MM. Couple of good follow through bars - trying to bounce at 8-EMA but couldn't trigger a H1, so that's a good sign. Fell through the bottom on bar 10 to +16 -stop now at +3 (above the BO bar). Nice bull reversal bar after BO - triggered H1 and didn't fail right away, so closed the trade at +4 before it got to the stop. It went back down to my target without touching my BE stop, so in hindsight it would've worked fine. But in hindsight we're all great traders, so that's how it goes. Just to torture me it will probably go all the way to close last night's gap.

Trade 3: Short CL on bar 21 (BO) (+1 tick), on bar 27 (BOPB) (+4 ticks), on bar 27 (A2) (+10 ticks)

After kicking myself for missing the L2 entry on bar 20, I bit the bullet on the BO bar thinking it would close the gap. But I was aware that I might have to sit through a PB and I made up my mind ahead of time to add on the PB signals. So I added on the first PB and the A2 shorts, not thinking of them as averaging down but legitimate scalp entries. Stop for all of them above the BO bar 21. I made the +10 scalp on the A2. It came one tick shy of closing the gap but I didn't get filled on my target. When it bounced and gave a reversal signal, I closed above the reversal signal for a small profit on the other two contracts. In hindsight, if I waited for the A2/L2 rather than shorting on the BO adn BOPB I'd made close to same profit with a lot less risk, so definitely reinforces the need for patience on the breakouts.

Trade 4: Short CL on bar 45 (BO) (-7 ticks)

After multiple failures to bounce up from yesterday's VWAP and the floor pivot, I thought the time was ripe to break to the downside. But my stop was once again too tight. It is a recurring problem highlighted by this journal - I need to have the proper stop beyond swing high - either enter closer to the swing high/low so the stop is not so far away or accept the larger stop or forego the trade, but not take the trade and have a weak stop. It hit my stop and proceeded back in my direction but it was too late for me to stick with it.

I gave up at this point because it is now past 12pm and the chance of getting chopped up is pretty high.

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  #28 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/8/2017: How to be right and lose money (1-3)

Another day of being right on the direction (and how) and still losing money because of bad entries and bad stop management.

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Trade 1: Short CL on bar 4 (L1) (-10 ticks)

After the strong first bar, expecting for scalp profit down. Bar 2 was a reversal bar but instead of triggering opening reversal, it closed down instead, so that's a good sign. My profit target is also the MM of the last two day's range. Entry bar is a doji, so there is some risk of opening reversal. Stopped out on an OR with 1 tick slippage. Could've exited on OR triggering but didn't in case the OR failed. I'll now stay away from CL until the EIA report.

Trade 2: Long ES on bar 4 (BO) (-2.5 points)

This was a poorly thought out trade (just what this journal is trying to eliminate) buying at the top of yesterday's trading range. I took this on impulse while waiting for the EIA report :-(. Two bar reversal on opening with BO on the 4th bar. Target yesterday's HOD test. Delayed entry, which makes the stop large. Exited for a loss on the second short signal at the top. The poor entry location cost me an extra point. I may need to go back to trading just one instrument until I'm consistently profitable before adding another.

Trade 3: Short CL on bar 21 (Reversal) (-15 ticks)

I shorted the reversal bar after the report, but exited when the pullback long triggered for a -15 tick loss. I could've kep my original stop and it would've been fine but too scared after the first two failures. Good entry, bad trade management.

Trade 4: Short CL on bar 23 (2nd reversal) (+20 ticks)

When the BOPB long failed and the second reversal short triggered, I took it and rode it down to +20 ticks in a couple of bars. Really wanted to shoot for extended targets below but needed to cash some ticks before it potentially bounces up from the bottom of the bull spike (also plan requires to take partial profit at +20 ticks and I have only contract so that's it). Need to wait for another good set up up or down. It ended up going down a long way without letting me back in. That's a problem with not having a runner - I need to trade at least 2 contracts... :-(

Didn't take the BO entry below the opening range - since we're near multi-week lows, there is a significant chance of FBO and reversal here. Didn't take any L1 after the BO for the same reason - but they all worked because today the bulls just gave up and rolled over, so there was no real pullback to speak of. :-(

After a while just gave up and left because I couldn't stand watching it go down without letting me in and worried that if/when I have a short set up it would be too late. Classic.

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  #29 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/9/2017: Another day of being right and losing money (-14 ticks)

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Trade 1: Short CL on bar 5 (opening reversal) (+2 ticks)

Nice reversal bar at resistance (yesterday's LOD). Went quickly to scalp profit +10, but looking for +20. Bounced back to BE, held through that. Back down to +19 and bounced back to BE - at that point scratched for a +2 tick gain. This trade did get to my original target w/o hitting my stop, but I was worried that it might have a second leg on the pullback after the strong opening swing up.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 9 (OR third entry, failed H2) (+1 tick)

Went quickly to +10 scalp profit and bounced just as quickly and almost hit my stop. Choppy action afterwards - exited for a +1 tick after another long signal after a potential wedge. This trade also got to my original target w/o hitting my stop. I should learn not to worry about long signals in a bear trend...

So far I'm trading like the amateur that I am. Resolve to have patience and have confidence in my entries. Need to find the balance between not being spooked by all counter signals and being blind to the price action if it is truly going against me. Easier said than done, right?

Trade 3: Short CL on bar 27 (L2) (-18 ticks)

This was a bad read of the price action. I was seeing a L2 but it was really more like a L1. I got stopped out very quickly. Another case where if I'm going to short in a strong trend after a potential climax, I need larger stops or wait for better signals than a strong bull reversal bar.

Trade 4: Short CL on bar 30 (L2) (+1 tick)

This was the correct L2 but I got too scared when it didn't go in favor right away and seemed to be putting in too many bull reversal bars. Scratched it just as it was beginning to move in my favor and it eventually went to my target. It was a great signal bar, so I should've trusted my original stop instead of getting shaken out.

I gave up at this point in frustration after one loss and three scratches which should've been wins. Trade ratio for the day is an uninspiring 0.9 - at least my entries were reasonable though my trade management was not very good.

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  #30 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
 
Posts: 45 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 134 given, 73 received

3/10/2017: Making money doing mostly nothing (2-0)


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Trade 1: Short CL on bar 7 (BOPB) (+20 ticks)

The entry was not great - should've shorted below bar 6 rather than waiting until it fell below bar 5, given that it couldn't even trigger the opening reversal on 5. But I was worried about another strong bull leg up to make a TR after the strong bull swing to end yesterday. Once I entered, my target was +20, looking for an extension past the gap close to test the low of yesterday's last bar. Got to it rather quickly in 3 bars and was the right location for an exit since it bounced back to my entry point on the very next bar.

Trade 2: Short CL on bar 36 (A2) (+10 ticks)

The entry was once again not great - I should've shorted under bar 32 (the correct signal bar for A2) or bar 35 (A2 second entry). Instead I waited until it fell below the bull double bottom as confirmation. Because of my late entry (10 ticks below the correct one), I settled for +10 tick profit rather than my usual target of +20, since that is where a lot of traders who entered at the correct spot might exit. It is also a little above the LOD in case it bounces short of that.

I missed the strong move down just before noon as I was away from my desk (also just a few minutes ahead of the report). As it went down to MM of the pullback and looked climactic, didn't take any more trades for the day.

This was a day when I felt like I was mostly watching and not doing anything for most of the day's action, and yet I ended up with a nice profit of +30 ticks on a single contract. It definitely reinforces the need for patience and waiting for the right setup - you can still make money sticking to your plan even if you miss most of the action.

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