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03-03-17
Instruments: CL - GC
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1
I wish i would trade like today every single day. Today i woke up early, took my 20 minutes jogging, had my shower and a milk with coffee and oats. Then sat at my computer doing the deepest analysis possible on crude oil, like every day since when i am doing the journal here at FIO. Even had time to make a reasonable analysis on Gold as a backup instrument in case CL was slow.
So there we go... my best trade on futures since when i started, 3 months ago.
I was looking for a signal bar or a pattern to confirm my analysis about where the CL would go to close the week. After a double bottom (bars 132-168) the support proven to be strong enought. Bottom of a 2 month trading range, no signs of price having to break below 52.50 but the price touched it once and strongly bounced from there telling me there was too much liquidity down there.. lots of bulls buying the bottom and as many bears taking profit and not wanting to fight the friday too much, perfect bull climax. I risked either to take a huge profit or BE+1 and i thought i would not care to close the week with just some ticks if it was the case. So my stop loss moved from -10 ticks to +1 as soon as the price went 20 ticks above my entry, after the first higher low. 3 contracts, 2 at 40 ticks TP, 1 runner. Trailing stop everytime a new higher low was forming.. placing it at the previous higher low. 151 ticks profit.
Gold (GC)
Trade 1
Big bear channel for gold this friday, good swing up to test the upper trendline, i waited for the price to either breakout EMA or fail at BO and do a second attempt at upper channel BO. But bull bars with tails while bear bars with shorter or no tails at all, so i decided to sell below bar 186. I waited the test at EMA and it holded so i moved my SL 1 tick above bar 203 placing the take profit 1 tick above the first support that the price would meet no matter if it would have gove down further. Market gave me reason as that trend line holded and the price failed to break it. 86 ticks profit.
2 trades, lots of time in front of the monitor, but hell.. was worth every single second.
06-03-17
Instruments: CL - GC - ES
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1
I was looking for the price to rally today so basically looking for long entries. First 1 was at bar 181. Triple bottom breakout, resistance at 53.20 BO, the price bounced away form TB and i thought it would go and test 53.40. 10 ticks profit with 8 ticks SL.
Trade 2
Big 187 bear candle, FBO at 53.40, BO at EMA 20 and also 53.20 level, i thought the price would come down strongly, but then i saw the price action on bar 191 i decided to manually close the position.
Trade 3
Second attempt to break 53.40, strong bull bar 195, i bought the close thinking the price would finally get to 53.80. Bit mistake not having waited a signal bar, especially with that tail above. FoMO. Managed to close with 1 tick as it was clear already the price would now move much higher.
Trade 4
Could not change my mind, i was still looking for long positions, even after 8 bear bars and a bear signal bar at 198. Went long without confirmation and this time i haven`t been smart enought to give up early.
Trade 5 and 6
The CL was so sluggish already, the price movement i was looking for never happened, instead the Oil moved down from 53-50 to 53.05 That was the movement that i should have taken. (shoulda woulda coulda). Anyway i managed to recover some from the big loss of trade 4.
Gold (GC)
Trade 1 Countertrend trade gone bad. I was looking for a pullback from the bottom of the trend channel, but the price went down further forcing me to close the trade.
Trade 2
With the trend setup thinking the price would drop to test yesterday's low at 1223.00, nice move down but when i saw the trend was losing momentum i moved my take profit a bit higher.
Trade 3
The price was trying to close the gap from bar 235 and i placed a 1:1 RR with 10 ticks profit.
Emini (ES)
Trade 1
I was trying to figure out if the price was trending and i was a sell setup at Ema bounce, did not figured out that there was that huge gap closing from 1 march. so the price bounced away from that support at 2367.00
Overall not a great day. Some mistakes that could have invalidated an entire session of trading, besides the big drawdown. I should pay more attention at the price action, and i should eliminate FoMO.
07-03-17
Instruments: CL - GC
Time frame: 3 - 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1
Easy trade, Oil clearly trying to reach 53.80. No signs of bears trying bring down the price at that point. Slow and steady movement. 294 decent trend bull bar so i bought the close for 10 ticks.
Trade 2
Bought the high of 295 betting on a move up toward 53.80, this time price became uncertain so i exited on those dojis.
Trade 3
Faded the FBO of 53.80 as predicted on my pre-market analysis but was unlucky enought to see my stop his before the price came down, or it would have been a nice trade.
Trade 4
The peak into 53.80 was so strong that made me think on a possible 60% break of resistance but it wasn't the case. I decided not to exit with a loss and at this point i would scale in untill break even. Was ok to lose up to 1000$, so i have bought several closes on bear candles untill i could get away with 330$ profit, enought stress on crude oil for today and i literally closed the instrument.
Gold (GC)
Trade 1
Very nice trade, since the CL is so sluggish as always lately, it gives time to focus on a second instrument at the same time. I was studying GOLD movements in the past days. Nice trend down, good steady movememnt, perfect for a very profitable trade. EMA resistance was reacting greatly at every attempts of breakout. Every point was good enought to sell. So i just went short and placed a 10 ticks SL with 20 ticks profit and 1 runner down to nowhere with 10 ticks SL after 30 ticks profit. The runner behaved greatly closing almost at the bottom of the downtrend.
Trade 2
Once i heard the order filled from the first trade i focued on a sign bar that would give me another 60% probability for short. Found it at bar 181. Bought the low for a 1:1 reward.
Really love these days when you take a huge amount of profit with only 2 contracts and in less than 2 hours. I normally don't care much about daily profit but today was 1138.56$ in less than 2 hours.
Trade 1
Bought the news. That simple. 41*2= 82 ticks
Trade 2
Sold the failed Breakout of 53.90. A friend of mine said i risked too much but i do totally disagree. Despite the first attempt to short that was a mistake for leaving the stop loss at 1 tick, i went short at 52.77 with the stop loss at 52.91 so thats 14 ticks but the profit for the price to close the gap was WAAAAY down to 52.40 with the runner going without stop loss as i was monitoring it personally trailing the stop loss manually after every bar close. Greed was telling me to hold further but i don't want to listen to it.
60+41= 101 ticks minus 2 ticks from the mistake = 99
