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Thank you my friend, yeah i could have bought the support but with such a large trend channel i prefer a clear buy signal. My account is small still.. can barely buy 4 oil or gold contracts so i am actually trying to defend my trading capital at best of my possibilities. This defensive trading approach is giving good results. I will go more aggressive later when capital will hopefully raise enought. Untill now i stuffed 1500$ in 11 trading days into a small 2500$ account.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
24-2-17
- Oil close to round number, chances of reversal and if so price would try to test level 54.50 and maybe going for 55. Yesterday's high was 54.95.
low was 53.87. Actually price found support at round number 54.00. Lets see. This will probably be a trending day maybe choppy.
- Gold has been slowly uptrending overnight. Daily chart gives signs of an uptrend continuation. Maybe a little sideways movement today during Trump's speak.
Instruments: CL - ES - GC
Time frame: 5 min (3 min for ES)
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
No trades today on CL but i have been looking for shorting 54.25, somehow didnt got filled at 12.03 candle, so peace, i kept watching for a retest, didnt wanted to risk my capital on random trades, i wanted "the trade" from 54.25 all the way down to 53.80. "Somebody said: if you sat on your chair looking for a trade but nothing happens, don't worry, you are actually trading anyway". I think i got what he means, i haven't got any trade but i defended my capital not entering low probability trades, or cherry picking some.
Gold (GC)
Trade 1
With the help of bookmap, an enhanced DOM and order book, used to spot points of high liquidity i placed my order with confidence at 1530.00 with 10 ticks stop limit and 10 ticks profit target, should have placed 2 contracts and close 1 at target and let other go with a trailing stop for further profit.
Trade 2
Shorted at 1256.1 thinking the bears would fight the price down again but they wont. so i moved the stop for a 4 ticks loss.
Trade 3
Enterd by mistake while analizyng the market with the chart trader active, but i managed to save with 2 ticks profit.
S&P (ES)
Trade 1
Again using the bookmap i found an area of high liquidity at 2358.00 and placed a stop limit order with 7 ticks sl and 12 ticks profit. MAN It would have been a hell of a trade for 3 points if it were not for that spike of (guess what?) 7 ticks above my short entry, the price rose so fast that got slippage in my favor and got filled just 3 ticks above my entry instead of 7 whch was my original protective stop.
Trade 2
Gone for 1:1 Risk:Reward and got my target.
27-2-17
CL - On daily chart Oil is going sideways since dicember 2016. Overlapping bars telle me indecision and today it will probably be a range day, untill the price breaks either the bottom or the top of the daily trading range. Possible trend up in the afternoon session. ES - After 14 dais without touching the EMA on daily chart ES finally loosing momentum at least for a breakout on its rally up, giving signs of a sideways price action day with a 4 to 6 points trading range.
Instruments: CL - ES - GC
Time frame: 5 min (3 min for ES)
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Shame on me really. Shame on me! I feel like im not willing to share my trades for crude oil today but hey this is a trading journal and everything has to be written as it is. I am not going to classify each trade but basically i chased down to dead that bull momentum what would have goen all the way up to 54.70ish. Never happened. Lots of buy high and sell low that broke my account into pieces. Emotional tradings, revenge trades, any possible errors, all of them well stuffed into a single session.
I walked away some minutes had a smoke, played with my daughter a bit... and then i realized at this point the only trade possible was going long on the support. As i did with 2 contracts 1 filled at +10 ticks and 1 at BE+1 with traling stop.
Had a second attempt later but the market was already sooo sluggish and i closed 2 contracts BE+1 to pay the commissions at least.
THE FUN THING IS THAT IN MY PRE ANALYSIS I MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTING 54.51 DOWN TO SUPPORT AT 54.13 as shown on the picture below (no i dont lie i wrote it down today at 8.30 AM as everyday) and i did exactly the opposite.
S&P Emini (ES)
Same as crude oil, was trying to recover from loses on CL and intead i was just adding to them the bad way. Totally lost control today.
Trade 1
Bought the high with 2 contracts hoping the market would uptrend from there.
Trade 2
Bought the low thinkint the market would go up NOW for sure. No way but at least I protected from a loss with 1 tick profit for 4 contracts.
Trade 3
Sold the low thinking the market would trend down and it immediately reversed.
Gold (GC)
Gold kind of saved my self esteem today retaking me into the right thought that there are positive and negatives days and i shouldnt be afraid of such days. They are still usefull to know your limits and work on them.
Trade 1
Wrong stop loss, should have placed it below the previous bar or better said 1 tick below EMA, was still waay out of focus.
Trade 2
Good entry, waited all the possible confirmations, entered 1 tick above the signal candle, excelent entry... bad profit management.
Trade 3
Shorted thinking the market would close the gap quick but it rallied up a bit more.
Trade 4
The price broke the EMA after several bear candles, no bulls around, bear climax after exaustion of bull trend. the price was likely to close the gap now as it did. Not sure witch gap would it close so exited at the last high before the long bull bar.
Bad day but worth every single penny to me. This is the first time i got hit so bad in any type of market. Its something that i didnt have as experience. Does It hurts? Yeah it hurts!! Will it take forever to recover? I don't know. But i don't feel panicked or something, I just treat it like any other losing day.
28-2-17
On the 1h chart i see a forming triangle that leads to think the price is in compression and will probably explode higher within the next 2 days. So another ranging day today. Not a real trend but the price is currently at the bottom of its swing low, just bounced off the lower trendline and it could do a big swing high that can be shown as an uptrend. On a bigger picture daily chart offer a clear reversal point based on multiple factors: 20 EMA, large trendline from 02/08 daily candle and middle of trend channel. If the support fails to hold price might fall down to 53.40 - 53.38 or down to 53.18
Instruments: CL - 6E
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1
As an expected possibility in my morning pre-analysis the price broke the support at 53.83 and fell down to 53.40 but unfortunately i missed that trade being with a customer at that moment. So i was focused on a reversal at support zone 53.40. Double bottom (181-184) and andle 182 gave a decent bull high1 filled at 185 with 2 contracts. But that BO at EMA made me change my mind and stopped 1 contract for 1 tick profit and let other go as a bull momentum was on the go. Even filled in another contract a bit higher to replace the one that i took off. But the price this time went against me and i had to close both positions. Signs of bearish climax that led me to go short at candle 190.
Trade 2
Shorted at 190 thinking the price would go down 188 and 189 were 2 bears candles and my sign bar to shot 190 but the price went sideways and i exited, expecting a big bull candle as crude oil used to make at some time of the day. (either bull or bear, depends)
Trade 3
I was still looking for long but when i saw the price to break 53.40 and that strong DB setup a bit earlier i shorted with 2 contracts 10 ticks the first and the second BE+1 at 11 ticks profit and trailing stop 10 ticks.
Euro (6E)
Trade 1
As a side trading intrument, to get less bored of the recent CL sluggish movements, i was looking for some interesting entry on Euro, and found a nice BO setup. The price broke resistance but unlike the last spike on candle 175 this time there was no fight there, no bigger volume: simply there was no bears around to protect the resistance. Anyway i placed my buy limit 1 tick above the last FBO just to avoid a possible bull trap.
Trade 2
A second trade thinking on a higher new high but the market became very uncertain so i decided to close BE the position and look for a short that would come sooner or later to close the gap. The MOFO ramped up 10 ticks, hitted my stop loss then fell down to my take profit, 24 ticks lower.
Trade 3
Just took the bounce of the trade as it was quickly coming up. When it started to fall again i sold.
Today was a better day. I am glad i didn't have fear on taking trades as i was kind of expecting today after losing 1k $ yesterday.
Still i am ok with my decisions even if they led to small losses because i followed my plan, my strategy and i didn't went "cherry picking" like yesterday. Lot of work still to do. I am planning to join the combine at TST but im not still confident enought. I am building my confidence with a small real account instead of going demo because on demo I just can't respect the rules as it isn't my money that goes on the table.
Also i am getting used and i really like to study the charts with these white fat wick candles, i feel that they takes away lot of emotions related to green and red behaviours also forcing me to a deeper look at them to understand whats really happening. Red and green candles were like: "ya, ok! red is bear and green is bull" but most of the time I need way more than that.
Back from a dinner with family and i find the GC fighting for a potential breakout setup that would close the gap from today's open. Big move up with 3 contracts for a banging 22*3=66 ticks to start the day. But 1 consideration: I risked 3 contracts most probably because im kind of drunk, breaking 1 of my iron rules... never trade when tired, or in this case altered. It could have seriously hurted my account.
01-03-17
Instruments: CL - ES
Time frame: 5 min (3 mins for ES)
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1 Resistance was holding very good and proved to be very strong, there was a lot of liquidity at and above 54.30 so i shorted after the failed BO with 10T SL - 20T TP and 1 runner to 54.00, BE+1, but after holding a triple bottom and a double bottom a bit later i decided i wouldnt hold the position any longer. Moved my stop loss for 4 ticks profit, wise decision.. the price would have stopped me.
Trade 2
Price broke the 54.30 R and after a selloff i was looking for a long, too bad i didn't wanted to wait for hte candle to close as the price was trying to break throught many resistances and i felt i would lose the opportunity for a rally up to 54.60.
Trade 3
Entered very late in the trade as the price dropped too fast to let me in at higher price, still managed to sell for 1 tick profit.
Trade 4
Entered and scaled down when the price dropped to 53.80 thinking that the support would hold and a bounce for a retracement, last chance to be profitable for the day. Never seen it as a downtrend. Bad entry. FoMO made me enter early... i should have waited the close of 341 and Buy limit 1 tick above. It would have been way safer and stick to my rules. As for the second entry that was to limit the losses in case the price would just get up to the close of the previous bar.
S&P (ES)
Trade 1
Its been 2 month that i trade ES and i should know that ES is slow at the moment... even if it is clearly trending it doens't gives the security of a good movement in your direction because is very sluggish. I should learn this thing and start to rely on my brackets positions as it is killing some very profitable trades from my equation. If i am wrong or right but ES hits my stop, i should accept it and start looking for new entry points that justify my rules. Another reason that made me close the position so quickly is that i didn't even considered reading price action, instead i was relying in the trend and thats where emotions get in the game.
Trade 2 Countertrend. But again closed the position too quick.
Trade 3
Perfect entry. I force myself to follow the rules of entry. Readed price action properly. Spotted a H1 at bar 336, waited for the minipullback to occur and entered 1 tick above the H2 bar 339
Very profitable day. Few trades, good reward. Some considerations taken.
02-03-17
Instruments: CL - ES - GC
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1
Sold the close of candle 169, messed up with strategy which is set to move the stop auto BE+1 after 7 ticks of profit, so price triggered the auto BE but didn't hit the 10 ticks take profit and closed right after entry with 1 tick profit.
Trade 2
I sold the low of 169. 6 bearish candles, EMA 20, bear channel, sell climax.
Trade 3
Sold the pullback to EMA and got stopped out. I should have holded the trade, trailing the stop above EMA to avoid it as i was sure of my pre analysis to be likely to happen. For some fun reason my next trade was...
Trade 4
... at the same price than the previous one, after the stop, entering 1 tick below the "With the trend" 181 bar, bounce from EMA 20, sell momentum.
Trade 5
I have missed the big move up. Just entered too late, i was still studying the trade and the long bull bar happened and caught me unprepared. I was studying this trade because price found market movers support at 52.70, there was tons of liquidity down there so the price was likely to bounce away from it and close the gap from candle 181. Another strong bull signal was the bodies of the bull channel bars, slow and steady moving up >always in buy, bears coudln't make money from there, actually selling the close of the big gap bar 181 and giving up after 50% of move up, in fact bar 189 was the give up closing gap Bull BAR, thats what i was anyalizing when it happened "under my nose", i wasnt't ready yet.
Trade 6
Again price triggered my 7 ticks AUTO BE+1 but didn't reached 10 ticks of take profit, just for 1 tick, so hit my BE+1 stop
Trade 7
... and again for 1 tick no 10+ profit but BE+1. Bought the hight of 189-192 bars double top, i was supposed to buy 1 tick higher but at this point nothing would have changed. Would have been the same result.
S&P (ES)
Trade 1
Entry point was perfect, EMA test, bear channel, possible swing down. Problem was the strategy: 2C SL 5 TP 8 on first, SL 5 TP 12 on second with auto BE+1 after 6 ticks. Price dropped 7 ticks, didnt triggered my TP but it did trigger my auto BE+1 stopping me out of a good ES trade. Still working on strategies to fine tune them better.
Trade 2
Bought the close of the big bull 234 bar thinking on a spike up to bar 196 close. Good entry point but well, it is as it is, so tryed to scale in and break even, but still that 239 spike low kicked me out of the trade.
Trade 3
Bought the spike low on bar 239 at the bottom of trading range, lots of bulls there buying, and sold the swing up, kind of revenge trade from last trade but good result.
Trade 4
Slow reacting, the bull bar formed too fast i was about to place a buy stop above 245 doji bar for the swing up but ended up buying the close of the big 246 bar thinking on a second leg up to BAR 196 close resistance, not enought bull strenght, heavy amount of liquidity above 247-248 candles closed with some profit as i changed my mind about that resistance. (bulls would never reach it)
Trade 5
When realized bulls were absent on this session i decided to look for short trades. Found a good setup below candle 250. Bull candle but still lot of sell climax due to L1 setup and shadow above. I just should have let my runner go further. But well... this is not about SHOULDA WOULDA COULDA. Its about probability and probabilities told me there was a 60% possibility of a reversal bar.
Gold (GC)
Trade 1
Could have been a good trade but i had to attend customers and decided to close the trade with a small profit.
Trade 2
I placed a trade thinking the price would follow trought but I didn't realized there was the yesterday's low below there acting as support and sold for a small loss
Trade 3
Again my strategy worked as intended but didn't triggered my take profit so stopped me BE+1.
Trade 4
Shorted the breakout but price found strong support and decided to close the trade with a small profit.
Thats all for today. Another good day, I was on a trading room listening for Al Brooks reading ES price bar by bar live. It was really illuminating.
