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Premarket analysis:
Hi:2363.75
Lo: 2355.25
Market is in TR. Resistance above 2363, middle line 2359, support below 2355.
Today: BLSHS (buy low sell high scalp), small position size, scale in/out.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Something I did over the weekend:
I watched a webinar on youtube (). The presenter addressed some of my questions. I record the link here for my own reference, and for anybody who is interested in it. Personally, I don’t use any other indicators except EMA, so his method doesn’t apply to me. I just enjoy listen to different people discuss the same most important questions in trading. I also enjoy a video by Al Brooks (). I have watched it several times and every time I feel I have learn something new from these old videos.
Feb 27th, 2017
Premarket analysis:
Hi: 2370
Lo:2362.25
The market is in a TR. So buy low sell high scalp. Small position size and ready to scale in/out.
Trade #1. Buy [email protected] and [email protected] . I bought overnight low and 1 point lower. The market soon went my way and I scalped out [email protected]. Sold the last contract @2365.5. P/L:2*8 ticks+1*13 ticks=29 ticks
Trade #2. Buy [email protected] and scalp for 1 point. P/L: 1*4 ticks=4 ticks
Trade #3. Buy [email protected] and I wish the market would soon went up to test overnight high 2370, and it’s also near a measure move target. But it pulled back, so I sold for 1 point. P/L: 1*4 ticks=4 ticks
Total P/L: 35 t
It has been a crazy week, and if you have sick kids you will understand.
Anyway, this is my journal for Feb 28th. It's late, and it's already March. But the purpose of keeping a journal here is not just to win prize, right? The most important thing is to improve my own trading. So I don't have to fake anything, for faking is just fool myself and waste my time.
Feb 28th, 2017
Playback account
Premarket analysis: volume was very low overnight, and was in a tight TR, about 4 points.
Hi: 2368.75
Lo: 2365
Since the market is in a tight TR, it is in a BO mode. Which direction will it take? In the hindsight, I see an extremely big bear bar, and it was much bigger than any bull bar. (Maybe this can be the evidence that today it will have a bear BO? Need to test this theory. At least yesterday’s biggest bar was the first bull bar and it was a TR day with a bullish bias. After looking, I like the idea that a super big bull bar near the lower range of overnight session means strong support; a super big bear bar near upper range of overnight session is a sign of strong resistance. Other situations, big bull bar near top, or big bear bar near bottom, their meaning is not clear. If the market is not in a TR, then the biggest bar usually is a counter trend bar, and should be ignored.)
Notice in the two charts below. Overnight session both have two levels of selling, and before (or shortly after) open of day session they both reach measure move of the two short selling place. Why the market kept moving up and formed a big bull trend in the first chart, while in the second chart the market reversed? Consider if you shorted at the high of the first big bear bar in chart 1. You added on at the high of the second big bear bar. You have to lose 1 tick to get out of your trade. Never BE. The bear is at the losing position. In chart 2, the bears shorted at the high of first big bear bar, and shorted 1/2/3 points higher. Later they got profit on their added position and BE on their 1st position.
Trade #1. Shorted [email protected] (EMA). I originally should long the lowest point. I was stopped out. P/L: 2*3 ticks=6 ticks
Trade #2. I sold [email protected] and [email protected]. Bought [email protected] and another one @2363.25. I thought it was going to bounce here and I could sell higher. However, the market didn’t bounce; it went straight down. P/L: 1*8ticks+1*14ticks=22 ticks
Trade #3. Shorted [email protected] (EMA). I thought the market would have another leg down or at least test low. But it didn’t; instead it went up and filled the gap. I shorted anther [email protected], and bought back entire position @ 2361.75 (previous low). P/L: 2*(-4 ticks) + 2*7ticks=6 ticks
Lessons learned today:
1. A small range day (R<5) is in a BO mode. Have to choose the most likely direction, or better to do nothing until the BO happen.
2. Is today’s BO expected or unexpected? In the hind sight, there are clues. However, we didn’t know at that time. So if I traded my original plan and stick with the long side, I can still be fine. The important thing is money management and psychology.
3. Clues that today we will have a bear BO:
a. Overnight session biggest bar is a bear bar near TR high;
b. Market could not go higher than the double top;
c. There is no significant buying pressure before the market go back to today’s low again;
d. For two hours the market didn’t fill open gap;
e. The market was in a very tight TR and was therefore in a BO mode. (Feb 17 also have a negative gap and didn’t fill the gap for 2 hours; however, it filled the gap at the last hour. The difference between these two days: Feb 17 has a wide overnight range (11pts), today is only 4 pts; Feb 17th is the 7th day in the up trend; today is 14th day in the up trend.
f. Feb 16 has the similar chart as today (overnight range is larger, 6.5 pts, 25 bars). The turning point is similar: the market went up from overnight low, but it cannot go over a double top prior to it, and it soon fell down. It BO earlier, at 10:40am.
4. Unusual things about today: There was no second leg for the strong bear move. It was neutralized soon after it happened. What does this mean?
The market has BO and I’m expecting a bull trend day. I plan to: buy EMA, and swing part of my position.
Trade #1. The open was not very strong, and the 1st bar on 5 min chart is a doji. There is a big gap. I was not sure how many contracts to buy, so I attached 2 contracts with the EMA. However, I was thinking too much and canceled my order later. The market went up quickly, and I could not wait. Bought 6@2386. I endured a pullback of 7 ticks, and scaled out 2 contracts for 2 points. Another 2 contracts for 3 points. And set a stop market order 1 tick above my original entry price. I was stopped out. So total P/L: 2*8ticks+2*12 ticks+2*1 ticks=41 ticks.
Trade #2. I attached 2 contracts with EMA, and was filled @2387.5. The market pulled back and hit my stop loss order for the last 2 contracts in my trade#1, so I still held 2 contracts now. I scaled out 1 @ 2388.5, and swing the last one. I kept my stop @2388. Now the only thing I want to do is to control my hands. I have to practice to be patient! There is a gap at 2389.25, and it leads to a measure move to 2397. The overnight gap leads to a measure move at 2399. I decide not to get out until price reach that level. If I sees the biggest bull bar, I will get out. This is my decision now. All I have to do is waiting. Simple thing, but not easy to do. (11:59am) OK, I’m out @2396.5(12:08 pm). P/L: 1*4+1*36= 40 ticks. Maybe I was out too quick. I now expect this to be a exhaustion gap, and market will come back to fill it. I have a buy order at 2394. See if it will be filled.
Lessons:
1. There is a lot to think of when it comes to money management. Was I too conservative today to scale out too many contracts? After all, it’s a big trend day, not a TR.
2. I was also thinking about gaps. When will gap appear?
I too have been trading stocks and options since 2006 lost some, gain some. Mostly loss... Started with futures last year and Doing SIMs a help of a friend. Haven't lost since first week of Dec of last year with 90% wins on average. Only problem is, not comfortable doing live due to not enough capital. But i know i can do it. Did several trades 1 contract at a time and was profitable. Today i put in 1500 on acc and i was gonna trade live but chickened out and went back to SIM. Turned out all 100% of my trades were wins. Deng.
The market might be in a BO mode. We are at all-time high and very late in the uptrend. Already 100 points higher and we have an open gap yesterday. Today might have a bear BO. But there are buying pressure underneath.
S: 2389/2384
R: 2395 (Don’t pay too much attention to resistance in a bull trend)
Trades:
Trade #1. The market was in a TR, always in short. The open was bearish, and has BO of Globex low. The fall was so quick, I chased the market and sold 3@2388. Then it pulled back, I sold another 3 at EMA (2389.5). It went up, but didn’t go above the high of open. I waited, and the market formed another lower high, and another lower high. I added 1 contracts when the market went down 1@2389. 7 contracts and my average price is 2388.75. The market went below the low of open, but pulled back again. I debated whether I should scale out some of my position, because the market may form a lower low and turn up from here. But this time it formed two lower highs, and I knew it would have to go down first. The market went down, I scaled out 2 contracts @ 2386.75, and another [email protected], for I can see the momentum slowed down here. I bought back the last contract @2385, for it was near a measure move target, as well as a 4-point swing target from a 2nd entry stop sell on the 5 min chart. P/L: 2*5ticks+1*7 ticks + 3*13 ticks + 1*16 ticks = 72 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #2. The market fell down again quickly and I sold [email protected], bought back @ 2383.25. P/L: 6 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #3. I attached 3 contracts with the 5 min EMA. It got filled @2386.75. The market did not move fast enough for me ( I guess previous trades have consumed all my patience), to be safe, I scaled out 2 contracts for 2 ticks, and another 1 for 6 ticks. P/L: 2*2 ticks+1*6 ticks=10 ticks (minus commission)
Daily P/L: 84 ticks (after commission) ~~~~ My first time past 1k!
Lessons learned:
1. Today my premarket analysis is TR, but overnight session turned out to be in BO mode, and the first 5 min bar is a big bear bar in a bear trend, so I only took short trades. It turned out great.
2. If the market went according to my plan, just add to my full position. If the market went to my way, can add on 1 contract for extra money.
3. Swing! Big money comes when I swing most of my position. And if I got big money, I will be more selective to trades, and won’t take low probability trade. That’s beneficial to my trading psychology.
4. DO NOT chase the market!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I could have better entry in my first trade if I did not chase the market. Bad entry hurt trading psychology. But I have to mention that: a swing target helps! If my target was several points away, I would not pay too much attention to small draw backs.
You have more experience than me! Yes, the difference between live and sim is enormous, and a small account is not very good at sustaining drawbacks... I am keeping this journal to help myself develop my own methodology and hopefully I can be confident enough to buy a combine from TST (or try other prop firm).
