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Globex analysis:
Hi: 2294
Lo: 2284
Globex was a strong bull trend, however, it was still in the trading range, and it was near the upper edge of the trading range. So it was probably a bull leg in a TR. Resistance: 2294; Support: 2284. My plan was to long around 2290, because it would leave me 4 points to resistance (2294). Go short above overnight high.
When I started around 9:35 EST, the market presented me with a great 2nd entry long set up at the EMA. A typical set up to go long. I was tempting to go long but I told myself to wait. However, I did not have control over my hands…
I saw a shallow bear channel and I shorted at the upper edge of the channel instantly (2291.75), instead of waiting for signal. Looking back now, I shorted at a relatively high price. However, I did not have confident on myself then, because I did not follow my rule to wait for signal bar or place order at measure move target or swing point. The order was in the middle of a trading range (or a channel) and the market soon rallied fast and went above the overnight high. I did have another two contracts at the overnight high, and this should be my first order. If I did not place the first order at 2291.75, I will have all the mental advantage and patience to watch the market go my way and I would get my 1-point scalp in no time. But at that time my average position was 2293, the market gave me a 4 tick failure and go up again. In a panic, I closed all my short position and go long 2 contracts @ 2294. I know, it was very irrational now to see myself doing that, but I did! But the market soon reversed down and I realized my psychological problem, and I closed my long position. So the first two trades I lost: 2*9 ticks+2*0 ticks + 2*4 ticks=26 ticks plus commission.
After that, I told myself to calm down and tried to look at my chart again. And this time, I try to view it objectively, from an outsider's perspective.
I scrolled left, and looked at the chart of previous day and Friday. I drew some lines and now I was sure that the market was at the upper edge of a TR and I needed to go short, heavily, immediately. I shorted 4 contracts when the price broke 2292, because I was convinced that this one tick lower signaled the weakness of bull. Another 1 contract 3 ticks higher, and when the market have a big bear bar, I shorted another 5 contracts @ 2292.75. Right now I have a very heavy short position and my stop was at today’s high 2295. If I got stopped out, my loss would be 6*9 ticks+4*12 ticks=102 ticks ($1275+commission), still within the daily loss limit posted by TST for their 150k account, but definitely a big loss. But the reason I place such a big order was that, at that time, I was sure the market would drop, at least a measure move of the tight 2.5 points TR. Moreover, it would drop even farther, filled the open gap, and find buyers there.
I got 1 point for 5 contracts, and intended to get the rest run. The market did go my way and the only regret I had was, I cannot tolerate any pull back once the trade goes my way. So when the market slowed down at 2291, I closed 3 contracts and move my limit order for the left 2 contacts to 2290 (a swing point during overnight session). Total ticks from this trade: 5*5 ticks+1*7 ticks+4*7 ticks=25+7+28=60 ticks (minus commission).
Then I left the computer with 1 buy order @2287.25*2 contracts (support level), two sell orders @2293/2294. I came back after half hour, and found I missed a big down move, but my buy order was filled and I scalped 1 point from that.
Now the market was near the lower edge of the TR and my chart showed great buying pressure. I placed 2 more buy orders: 2@2287 and another 2 @2288. The market filled 2287, but after a 4 tick failure, dropped and fill 2286. It struggled to go up, but went down first. I prepared to buy again at the low (I was confident now), however, the bulls protect swing low of 2285.25, and filled my sell limit order for all of my 4 contract at 2288.
My summary for today’s trades:
1. -18 ticks, good position, bad mental preparation, end prematurely.
2. -8 ticks, totally bad execution, a result of panic.
3. +60 ticks, strong confidence, good mental preparation, bad patience. (the big position size did give me pressure)
4. +8 ticks. Good position, good execution, stress-free trade. It was also a high probability trade I placed before I left the computer.
5. +24 ticks. Good position, strong confident, stress-free trade. I did monitored this trade from start to end, and I am glad I did not move my profit target.
Lessons learned:
1. Wait for a clear set up.
2. Big position will have pressure. Have to be very strong to handle that. I should NEVER, NEVER reverse or double my position after a loss. Today I won, but it was due to my ability to trust myself and follow a rational plan, not because I was bold. Boldness led to destruction.
3. ALWAYS look at the chart via a clean, outsider’s view. ALWAYS reassess the always-in direction.
4. Take high probability trade. Don’t chase the market, let the market come to you.
Hope everybody have a great trading day,
Sabrina
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Feb 8th, 2017
Globex analysis:
Hi: 2291.25
Lo: 2284
Globex was a TR, R level above 2291.25; S level below 2284. So I should trade it like a trading range.
When I started today, the market was below my support level 2284, but showed great buying pressure. The breakout of 2284 was not a successful one and the market was trying to get back to the TR. The TR was about 4 points, today’s low was 2282, and the next two level was 2286 and 2290. I did not catch a big move today; all trades are small gain/loss. I’ll analysis them below.
Trade 1: Around 10:30 EST, I saw a big bear bar from 2286 and a second entry short. I went short there, and soon realized it was a bad decision. The bear move was too big and the bears would already take their scalp profit. I got out of the trade and lose 3 ticks for 2 contracts. P/L: 2*(-3 ticks)=-6 ticks(-commission)
Trade 2. There was a big BO of 2286, so I was looking to buy a pull back. I successfully enter my long position @2285.75 and my guess was that the market was ready for a 3rd push in the bull channel. However, I was also expecting that the market would publl back a little farther, so I scalped my 2 contracts for 1 point and wanted to buy at least at the same price again. Quick move, but the market didn’t pullback, instead, it shot up and finished the 3rd push in 5 minutes. P/L: 2*4 ticks=8 ticks(-commission)
Trade 3. Short @ 2290.25. I was planning to take a swing trade, so when the market give me 1 point scalp, I didn’t take it. However, I moved my stop to BE+1. The Market soon stopped me out and moved down. P/L: 2*1tick=2 ticks(-commission)
So I have successfully avoided all the big move in the morning.
Now I really wanted to buy pull backs. So I placed my orders @ 2286, hoping to catch a pullback. However, the market turned 2 ticks above my order (buyers @ 2286.5), and when it turned down again, I want to buy 2286.25, but the market didn’t take me with it. It turned at the same price again, creating a perfect double bottom. Since I missed the move, I don’t want to buy high, instead, I only want to sell. (I should have notice that bears who short 2290.25 didn’t get their 4 point swing, it was a 17 tick failure. Together with the perfect double bottom, it showed the strength of bull.)
Trade 4: short @2290. The market did gave me a 1 point scalp immediately. But I didn’t take it. I was still hoping a swing trade. Then the market entered a tight trading range. I expected a big drop as soon as price reached the morning high 2291.5. But the drop did not come and I was getting anxious. I believed the longer market stayed here, the more possible it would have a BO (although a BO in a TR day is rare, I was not confident when the time was late. My limit order was 2 points away. Finally, a double top and a quick drop. But my order was far away. When I saw the big bounce, I took 1 tick and left the market. P/L: 2*1 ticks = 2 ticks (-commission)
Lesson:
1. A swing trade? A scalp trade? My only 4 tick scalp today actually made me lose opportunities later. Because I missed a big move for a 1 point scalp, I did not take profit for my 3rd trade when market gave it to me. Then I regret and want to protect my profit, and I missed a big move again. In my 4th trade, because I missed big move for two times, I was very much hoping to get a swing trade. However, it was getting late and the market didn’t give me that.
2. I need to act quickly when an opportunity appeared. There are less traps in the morning, usually. Should not think too much.
3. Stop loss early. It’s hard to do, and I’ve been working on it forever. I was always afraid that the market would stopped me out before it turned my way. Today I was happy with my execution for my first trade. I lost 3 ticks, but avoided a big mental burden later.
Overall, I did not catch any big move today. And it will be easier to feel the rhythm of market if I held position in it long enough, carried by its flow. I hope tomorrow will be better and if the market opened low, I will buy!
P/L: 3 ticks (commission ate half of my profit!)
Weekly P/L: 25 ticks
It was a big bull trend day today. After all, yesterday the bulls showed their strength, and during the overnight session the market broke out 2294 resistance. I had a great day today. I didn't do much active trading, instead, I attached my orders to the EMA, and wait for the market to come to me. However, it was such a strong trend that my order didn't get filled until 2304.5. I have attached another 6 contracts to the 5 min EMA, and they were filled at 2303.5.
Totally I got 4 trades in total.
Trade #1: Buy breakout of 2296 @2297.75, sold at previous high @2299.75. P/L: 2*8 ticks=16 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #2: After market BO of 2300, buy @2301.25, I originally set my sell limit order at 2304.5 (measure move based on gap), however, I didn't have the patience during a small pull back. So... sold @2302.5 P/L:2*5 ticks=10 ticks (minus commission).
Trade #3. This was the attached order. First I set the set off to be 0 but for the whole morning, the market did not filled me. Maybe there were too many people want to buy the EMA... So I changed the set of to be 1, finally got filled @ 2304.5. I didn't take my profit at the high, and watched the price came close to 5min EMA. (As I was writing this journal, the price hit my stop order and I was stopped out @2306.25) P/L: 2*7ticks=14 ticks(minus commission).
Trade #4. This was the attached order with 5 min EMA. I got 6 contracts here @ 2303.5. The market didn't bounce as quickly as I would like, and because the position was larger than I would like (6 contracts ), so I sold 6 @2304.75 and I saved 2 contract for swing trade. 6*5 ticks=30 ticks (minus commission)
Lesson learned:
1. I need more patience in a big trend day. Maybe set a stop order and forget it? I could have gotten 10 points if I just left my first 2 contracts, and it would be more than all of my trades today.
Some thoughts..
So according to TST 150K account rule, you have to make $9000 to be qualified for review. If I can trade 20 days a month (max) it will be $450/day (9 points/day) . I wonder how many people can do it in one month? It seems simple but it actually is not. Unless I can do really really good in a big trend day like today, I can never do it in a month, at least within my comfort zone (only 6 contracts). They say they expect a 6% return , but they didn't say it's monthly or yearly? What is your expectation for annual return if you are a full time trader?
Feb 10th, 2017
Last night my little one got sick and I have to take care of her today. I got a good long afternoon nap with her (we were both very tired after last night), and now I just finished trading the replay account (It’s now or never, because during weekend, my time always belongs to the kids…)
Today the volume was really low (because I use a volume chart, it’s easy to see). The Globex session only contains 19 bars. Last year at this time, the Globex usually contained at lest 40+ bars…
Premarket analysis:
Yesterday was a bull trend day, but ended with a 3 hour TR. Today I will be long. But since we are at all-time high, I don’t feel comfortable to buy high, I just want to buy pull-backs.
Trades:
#1. The market starts with a tight TR. It did broke higher than overnight high, then it pulled back. It was very tempting to go short, and I did :P I shorted 2 contracts @ 2309, got 4 tick for 1 contract and 1 tick for the other one. P/L: 5 ticks (minus commission)
I compare two day's chart, wanted to see if today's market will BO like yesterday
#2. Shorted 3 contracts @ 2308.25, added another 3 @2308 after I saw a big bear bar. Intended to get 4 ticks for 4 contracts and buy back below day session’s low. However, 4 ticks failure, I was stopped out @ 2309. I didn’t trade according to my plan and got burned. P/L: 3*4 ticks+3*5ticks= -27 ticks (minus commission)
I will keep this picture to remind me how a losing trade looks like.
#3. The market went up strongly, and I expect it to have a BO. It did BO and I went long 10 contracts @ 2309.75 (stop-limit order). The market gave me 6 ticks on 10 contracts but I didn’t take it (!!!!), and later I set a stop order to protect my 10 contracts and I was stopped out. I only got 1 tick for each contract. 10*1 tick=10 ticks (minus commission)
#4. Long 2 contacts at the low of a tight TR @2310, and 4 contracts 1 point lower. I felt very comfortable to place this trade. It was within my max contract number and was with trend. I quickly scalped out 4 contracts @ 2310.25 and intended to leave two contracts for swing trade. It took much longer to go up and stalled at 2310.25-2310.5 again. More than half an hour later, I closed the trade @ 2310.25. P/L: 2*1 tick+4*5 ticks=22 ticks (minus commission)
#5. I was very unhappy to see the market go up without me. It was very tempting to go short at 2312.5 when price touched a resistant line. I placed the order twice and cancelled it twice. Luckily I did cancelled my order because price broke out of this area. I waited until I see the price BO of the only channel I could confidently identify today, and bought 2 contracts @ 2312.5 for it was at the measure move of the first leg down, and was at a support level. Because for the whole morning, the market had a lot of two sided trading, I anticipated that the market might need to fill a gap @ 2311.5 before it can go up. I placed 8 contracts to buy @ 2311.5, however, the bears are too weak to fill the gap. The gap was left open, and market moved up without me. Disappointed, I closed the trade for 5 ticks. P/L: 2*5 ticks= 10 ticks.
When I started:
How it looked when I was disappointed: I cancelled the buy limit order later. It was too late in the afternoon.
All trades on one pic:
Lessons learned:
1. ALWAYS, ALWAYS trade always-in direction. Trade according to plan. If countertrend, do use less contracts and scalp! My #2 trade was bad because: 1. Stop order in a countertrend trade; 2. I added to my full position size and I was still in the “TR mode” (discuss below); 3. Didn’t scalp out early; 4. Biggest mistake: counter trend!! (I found myself wrote this in 70% of my trading days. Be smarter next time!) Should I totally avoid countertrend? I'm afraid I cannot!
2. I need to have more sense about the market strength. I was still in the “TR mode” when actually the market was in a bull trend. Bulls were much stronger than bears. So I was not able to buy lows and I certainly cannot sell highs. I need to remember this!!!
3. Do NOT give myself boundary – DO NOT draw resistance line in an up trend, especially when we are at all time high! (Again, a problem that could lead to countertrend trade)
4. Don't get too greedy if holding a big position. I would be better off to scalp 1 point for my #3 trade. NEED to stick to one strategy, either scalp or swing... I need to think about it...
Summary:
Today’s net P/L: 12 ticks
Weekly net P/L: 102 ticks
PS: I just realized that I didn’t usually enter the market using Mack’s method. I guess there are several reasons. First, in real time sometimes I cannot place order fast enough. The bars on volume chart usually formed very fast. Second, the ES market was in a TR most of the time and I don’t feel comfortable to place my stop order below lows/ above highs (because I want to buy low sell high in a TR, and because according to TST, I can afford pretty big pull-back in a 150K account if my position size is small). I guess this second reason is just my psychological problem – always fear that the market will take out my stop. I need to work on it.
I guess most of my trading style is “Al Brooks style”. Both of Al and Mack provide great insight of the market structure. To me, I use Al’s theory to look at the big picture and to judge if the market is in a trend or TR, where the next big target is; then I need to look at the detail on my volume chart to determine my entry/exit points as precisely as possible. After posting journals on FIO, I began to realize how hard it is to describe a trade and the reasons behind it. It relates to so many aspects. Now I understand why Al’s books are so thick. :P
It’s getting pretty late in my zone and hope everyone have a great weekend! No snow, no rain, please!
I cannot believe half of February has already gone by. Writing a journal on FIO has become a helpful way to hold myself accountable for my own trading. No matter how many people have read it, it has a much different impact for me from the journal I kept on my own computer. I have since simplify my trades because I have a daily target and I want to select a best setup and high probability trade and reach my daily target as soon as I entered the trade. I will keep doing it after the journal competition to hone my trading skill.
This morning’s Premarket analysis:
Globex session
Hi: 2318 (9 ticks higher than Friday’s high).
Low: 2313.25 (higher than Friday’s TR low edge)
I believe the market has ready BO, and the market is moving up today. (From a daily gap on Dec 7th, the measure move leads to 2340s, or higher). So I will be long today, and I WILL NOT PLACE ANY SHORT TRADE (always remind myself, no matter how tempting it appears).
1. The market moved up when it opened. I did not buy immediately, for I saw there was a gap on 5 min chart. Would the market go back to Friday’s close and find buyers there? The market went up for 3 consecutive bars, and pulled back. Now I was convinced that it would at least go up to 2322.5 to test it. I attached 6 contracts at the EMA of my volume chart (the EMA on 5 min chart was too far away). I got filled @2320.25, and I got 2 points for 5 contracts, and left 1 contract to swing. I felt if the market can successfully BO 2322.5, it may go straight up to 2325 (a measure move based on 5 min gap). But it stalled, and I sold my 1 contract for 7 ticks. P/L: 5*8 ticks+1*7 ticks=47 ticks (minus commission).
2. Since I already reached my daily target, I didn’t want to risk any more. Plus the market enters a tight TR, it was really not good to do anything. I placed 1 contract @2322.25, hoping it was just a pullback from a previous 1 tick BO of the tight TR. It was not; when I saw it broke the lower edge of the TR, and came back but stalled at the upper edge and formed 2 doji bars, I sold it for 1 tick. P/L: 1 tick.
That is all for all of my trades. It was very straightforward today, and I feel stress free. It seems Monday is always a little slow.
Lessons learned:
1. When there is a clear always-in direction, do not hesitate -- just enter the market!
2. If very confident, put on full position!
This is the journal for yesterday. I did not have time to trade live today. I was exhausted for taking care of two sick kids. I'll see if I can find time to do replay tonight.
Feb 14th, 2017
I had a very stressful day. I was down more than -$1000 at the peak, but I held my position and waited until the market turned my direction. The trades today was too difficult to record, for I kept scaling in & out of position.
Premarket analysis: TR, Hi:2327.5; Lo: 2323.25. Because we were at the low of the TR, I would go long at the market open. I hold a long bias, for we had several days of bull T and we are at new high.
The first mistake I made was placing a wrong trade! I pressed the wrong button and sold 3@2323. When I realize that, I quickly reversed my position and added 3 more 2 ticks higher.
The second mistake I made was, I didn't scale out when then market reach 2326 and I already got 2 points for my entire position. I need to make a plan to manage my trade.
The third mistake I made was, I didn't get out of my positon when the market turned against me. And I added 2 more contracts @ 2323 & 2322.5. A few minutes later, I found out that the market was moving down and would not go up very soon.
Now the biggest confusion I had today was: as a strong bull today, what should I do when market was moving down? I guess I should dump some position, but I was also afraid I can't buy at a better price. In hind sight, why should I hold such a big positon while I can buy at a better price? But at that time, I did not know. The only thing I knew was the market would go up, but I didn't know when. (I guess I really had a strong faith today!)
Because I did not take profit at the right place, I was very stressful during the whole morning. I kept looking back and forth at the 5 min chart & volume chart, below are some charts I took when I was waiting.
This is the result of a playback account. I doubt that a playback account can do the same as a real time sim account, for you can always pause or fast forward. I tried to do it as real as possible, but I know it was different. I did not have time to do it last Friday, for I have two sick kids at home. Just finished it now, so I’m posting it as I happen to have a little time to myself.
Premarket analysis:
Hi: 2347.5 Lo:2336.5
Globex is a down trend. Support @ 2337. Near open, seems like a final bear flag. But almost all the bars are below EMA, so always in short.
Trade #1. Short 2 contracts @2340 for a measured move down, which will be around S2. The market quickly went my way but I didn’t take 1 point. After it reverse up, I took a 5 tick loss. 2*(-5 ticks)= -10 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #2. Long 4 contracts @2342.25. The reason for this trade is: I was looking at 5 min chart and it was always in long. There was a gap down from yesterday’s close @2245.5 and I was sure that the market want to fill the gap. However, there was one thing I did wrong: the position size. My own rule was 6 contracts maximum, and, according to Al, the correct stop would be below the first bar (today’s lowest point), which was 5 points under! I would have just buy 1/5 of my full position size, which is 1 contract. After buying, the market pulled back for 2 points but it rallied back. Things were not going well as I’d like, but I kept telling myself “you have to tolerate risk in order to win”. Very good bar @10:15, but after it came a very disappointed follow-up bar. It broke out, only failed and fell back into the tight TR. I should have get out here. I can still make 1 tick for my 4 contracts. But I did not, and I waited until the market stopped me out for 9 ticks’ loss. 4*(-9 ticks)=-36 ticks (minus commission)
Trade 3: I reversed my position for a 2nd entry short at MA on the 5 min chart. The market went against me but failed at MA again (as I expected). It went my way for 2 points, but I didn’t take it (again! I guess I was in “swing mode” today). But I took the lesson I learned from my first trade: set a stop order to protect my profitable position. I was stopped out for only 3 ticks. 4*3 ticks=12 ticks
Trade 4: I shorted 4 contracts @2341.25, scalped out for 1 point. 4*4 ticks = 16 ticks
Trade 5: Market is always in long. I wanted to buy 2340.25. Price touched my orders but did not fill it. I looked at the 5 min chart again, and it was a 2nd entry long after price broke out of MA.
The signal bar was small (3 ticks tall), not very impressive. It formed a micro double bottom with on previous bar. After the next bar ticked above it, I went long 4 contracts @ 2341. This is my trade of the day. After 3 bars, the price was back up to the MA, and I set a stop order 1 tick above my position to protect it. This way, at least I would not lose this trade. The market pulled back, but never touched my stop order(2341.25). In the hindsight, this is a sign for strong market movement. I decided to let it run, because I would not lose this time. I did scale out 1 contract@ 2344, then the market filled the open gap and my 3 contracts were filled @ 2345. P/L: 1*12 ticks + 3 * 16 ticks= 60 ticks
Lessons:
Most important lesson today: calculate position size according to risk. I have to work out a scale-in/out plan. (I never gave it a serious thought in a small account)
After posting on this forum, I began to discover more and more blind spots in my trading. It would be great to encounter every possible problem before I started to spend (waste, indeed!) money again on trading. Tomorrow is Monday again. Hope everyone a good trading week!
Daily P/L: 36 ticks (after commission)
Next week’s market:
Sentiment: Still bull. Probably more TR price action. Gap @2299.75, and it will be a major support level, and also a major target for the bears.
I did not have any time to trade live this week. Have a sick kid at home and my time was all taken.
Feb 21st, 2017
This is the result of a playback account. I did not have any knowledge to what the day would look like and I tried to do it as real as possible.
Premarket analysis
Monday was a holiday and I use it's data together with Globex market data.
Hi: 2356.75
Lo: 2346
The market is in an uptrend and BO all time high. But it showed a lot of TR price action. The EMA contained most of price action above it.
Today’s Chart ES 03-17:
Trade#1: I want to buy as the market go up. I attached 6 contracts with the 21 EMA, it did not get filled until 10:35am EST. Filled @ 2361.5, I scalped 1 point for all contracts. P/L: 6*4 ticks= 24 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #2: Again, I buy EMA and got filled 3 contracts @2362.75. It gave me a 3 tick failure and went down. I added another 3 contracts @ 2361.5, and got out of my entire position @ 2362. P/L: 3*(-3 ticks)+3*2ticks= - 3 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #3. I was surprised to see the market turned to always-in-short. Big bear bar, but when I saw buying pressure , and the price was near R1, I bought [email protected] and 3@2356, and got out of my position @ 2357.75 & 2358.25. P/L: 3*0+3*7ticks=21 ticks (minus commission)
Trade #4. The market was in a bull channel after the surprising bear BO. I bought [email protected], for it was near TL & 2nd entry & reverse up from breaking a double bottom. Then the market fell down again and broke 2358. I added 3@2358. The market reversed up, and I got out of my entire position @ 2359.25. P/L: 3*(-3 ticks)+3*6ticks = 3 ticks (minus commission).
I am not satisfied with this trade at all. I bought the first 3 contracts for the fear of missing; then I got out of my entire position for only 1 tick because I was afraid that the market will do surprise thing (big down) again. One reason I was not fine with this trade being a losing trade was, I was already achieved my daily target after first 3 trades. I wanted to end today perfectly and this subconscious thought had a negative impact on me.
Lessons:
1. I feel good to stick to my rule of only trade 6 contracts at maximum. I am using a scale-in plan when trading against trend.
2. Today was a surprising day. I am satisfied with my second trade. I did cut loss short. In fact, these small loss trades make me even happier than those small gain (BE) trades. Because they proved I can cut loss short. I need more practice to let profit run.
3. Today’s winning strategy: a)buy EMA; b) buy swing low; c) scale in according to plan. Make reasonable choice and you can usually avoid a loss (By Al).
