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I Wanna be a Professional Trader on Crude Oil Market


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I Wanna be a Professional Trader on Crude Oil Market

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  #1 (permalink)
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Posts: 155 since Sep 2015
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Hello to all,

This's yawaniga from India, Practicing SIM Trading on US NYMEX CL and Live Trading on Indian Futures.

And I 've Spent Couple of years Live Market Screen timing to understand the dynamics of Future trading.

For the purpose of this Trading Journal is updation of my trade plan with logical strategies. Pls Correct if anything goes wrong.

Happy Trading.

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  #3 (permalink)
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yawaniga View Post
Hello to all,

This's yawaniga from India, Practicing SIM Trading on US NYMEX CL and Live Trading on Indian Futures.

And I 've Spent Couple of years Live Market Screen timing to understand the dynamics of Future trading.

For the purpose of this Trading Journal is updation of my trade plan with logical strategies. Pls Correct if anything goes wrong.

Happy Trading.

Hi yawaniga - good luck!

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  #4 (permalink)
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Trade Plan - Based on Market Profile with Footprint set up.
Trading Hour - US Session
Trading Instrument - CL
Market - US Market(NYMEX CL), Indian Market (MCX CrudeOil)
Risk & Reward Ratio - 10+Ticks/Trade

Detailed explanation 'll add on next post.

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Looking forward to your journal!

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What is your edge on CL ?

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Some questions for you:

1 How do you size your positions?

2 What percentage of your account do you risk on average per trade?

3 How big of a drawdown can you withstand considering question 2?

4 How do you manage risk during the trade?

5 How do you know when to stop trading for the day or week?

6 How do you set targets?

7 What's your strategy or method used for stop placement?

8 What do you believe about CL?

9 What are your beliefs about your trading methodology?

10 (And please forgive the loaded #10 question) What are your beliefs about trading against the largest and most powerful corporations on earth, Big Oil, with $100's of billions in resources every conceivably advantage (tech, account size etc) and inventory knowledge in advance of reports?

11 Why do you believe trading is a good fit for you?

And...

12 How do you define a trade opportunity?

I sincerely offer these questions in a helpful, constructive and supportive light.

Ron



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  #8 (permalink)
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Blash View Post
Some questions for you:

1 How do you size your positions?

2 What percentage of your account do you risk on average per trade?

3 How big of a drawdown can you withstand considering question 2?

4 How do you manage risk during the trade?

5 How do you know when to stop trading for the day or week?

6 How do you set targets?

7 What's your strategy or method used for stop placement?

8 What do you believe about CL?

9 What are your beliefs about your trading methodology?

10 (And please forgive the loaded #10 question) What are your beliefs about trading against the largest and most powerful corporations on earth, Big Oil, with $100's of billions in resources every conceivably advantage (tech, account size etc) and inventory knowledge in advance of reports?

11 Why do you believe trading is a good fit for you?

And...

12 How do you define a trade opportunity?

I sincerely offer these questions in a helpful, constructive and supportive light.

Ron



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Great Thanks Ron,

for your sincere guidance to implement my trade journal, to be honest i never expect these valuable support from senior members of this forum.



Anyway i'll try to explain as per your list

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  #9 (permalink)
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rleplae View Post
What is your edge on CL ?

As a Non US Trader, I 've no idea about right edge to trade on Live CL Market.So far I 've Practice on only SIM Mode. Hope Real fills are something different. Anyway based on US Oil Price move, tracking local commodity market price, Really worth to watch for better trade on local market.

Cut it short, i m very comfort on short momentum trades based on flow of orders either buying side or selling side.I think its not a right edge to survive on this market for long time.

Anyway miles to go.

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  #10 (permalink)
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SIM Trades on NYMEX CL

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  #11 (permalink)
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Change your sim amount to 10000$ or whatever amount you plan to start with. See if you can make 4x original amount before you go broke in SIM.

Check out replay, which is SIM but faster

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  #12 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
Change your sim amount to 10000$ or whatever amount you plan to start with. See if you can make 4x original amount before you go broke in SIM.

Check out replay, which is SIM but faster

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Thanks a lot for your suggestion, But that SIM Account got it from TopstepTrader Practice Account for 14 days as a free trail.
I 'm very proud and surprised to see the interaction of legendary icons, xplorer, rleplae, Blash, and jackbravo watching this new amateur trader's journal.

My sincere thanks to this all.

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Look into sierra chart, which allows you to do replay without a broker for low monthly fees

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  #14 (permalink)
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Try to explain regarding these points,

10. What are your beliefs about trading against the largest and most powerful corporations on earth, Big Oil, with $100's of billions in resources every conceivably advantage (tech, account size etc) and inventory knowledge in advance of reports?

I believe i m plan to trading for my living, So When Compared to the cost of running business to the Big Boys, Actual Overheads is very small for me. So It doesn't matter. Some Calculated edge is enough to play with them.

11. Why do you believe trading is a good fit for you?


I think i 'll become a right trader after some years of practice. Hope practice makes me perfect. Finally I 'll fit for trading. But not now.

And...

12. How do you define a trade opportunity?


I 'm following Value Areas to open my trades. based on VAH, VAL, and POC with VWAP Combo. Regarding this lets explain later.Anyway i 've enclosed the Chart for understanding purpose.

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  #15 (permalink)
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12. How do you define a trade opportunity?

I 'm following Value Areas to open my trades. based on VAH, VAL, and POC with VWAP Combo. Regarding this lets explain later.Anyway i 've enclosed the Chart for understanding purpose.

This's the part of my trade plan, to find the areas of trade opportunity. Actually there's very less documentation regarding orderflow footprint reading, So i can explain the edge upto some extent only.

Reading of Inside the Prints of each bar is understand the control of Power.So accordingly i guess the direction of price move along with Value Areas.

Luckily i 've seen a post on this forum with detailed chart to highlight the anatomy of footprint bar, Some unexplored terms 'll familiar to understand.

(Courtesy - paps)

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  #16 (permalink)
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Trade in the direction of the trend according to Value Areas.

Long : Above POC and VWAP with Imbalance of Buyers
Short : Below POC and VWAP with Imbalance of Sellers

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  #17 (permalink)
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No trade day

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  #18 (permalink)
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MCX Market Crude follows NYMEX Oil

1 tick Size - $0.01 On US Oil Tick Value $10
1 tick Size - INR 100 On Indian Oil Value - INR 100

Approximately When 10 ticks move on NYMEX Oil Price, at the same time 5 to 7 Points move On Indian MCX Oil

Let assume focus a trade with 10 Plus ticks (Except Slippages)

10 ticks - 10 x $10 - $100
10 Points - 10 X INR 100 = INR 1000

If i get 2 to 3 trade per day as per expected target, Really It should be great money.



To achieve the above target, at least I 've to practice to get 3 to 4 ticks with Very limited risk. So today started live trading with reasonable margin. Really best result on this scalping.,at the time of US Market timing.

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  #19 (permalink)
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South Asia(GMT+5.30) Indian MCX Session Closing @11.55PM Crude Trading near @ $53.85

Some Bullish move on Oil nearly $1 from Europe Session.

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  #20 (permalink)
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I Kept Some Short Positions for Positional on 10.02.16 Friday @ $53.85 Range (Indian MCX Price 3600 Range)
Today Market Opened almost Flat with few ticks negative as per global CL Price move @$53.78 Range. @ 10.AM (+5.30 IST)


Anyway i thought some chances are more for pullback. Still holding my short with confidence.

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  #21 (permalink)
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At the time of US Opening (7.30 PM IST) Oil trading near $53.15 level.,So covered my short positions partly.

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yawaniga View Post
I Kept Some Short Positions for Positional on 10.02.16 Friday @ $53.85 Range (Indian MCX Price 3600 Range)
Today Market Opened almost Flat with few ticks negative as per global CL Price move @$53.78 Range. @ 10.AM (+5.30 IST)

Anyway i thought some chances are more for pullback. Still holding my short with confidence.

Recent low ticked upto $52.75 range, nearly $1 down move. Opened some swing trades based on the down move with limited risk.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Trades ends with green ticks.

US Oil Trading $52.85 range @ Closing time 11.55PM IST (+5.30 GMT)

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  #24 (permalink)
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Some Long Positions holding @ $52.85 range on last night Closing time , May be open 10 Plus ticks above $53.05 range

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  #25 (permalink)
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Made Some Scalp Trades with green ticks.,

Today Closing Range $53.30 @ 11.55 PM (+5.30 GMT)

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  #26 (permalink)
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Today (15.02.17) Gap down open based on US NYMEX CL Closing. Anyway Crude Oil Inventories report 'll drive the price accordingly @ US Session.
Note : I heard about that actual Oil Inventories report 'll issue earlier to the members of The Energy Information Administration's (EIA). Hope Public release is as per Economic Calendar Schedule.

Anyone Clarify regarding this?

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  #27 (permalink)
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Opened Some Scalp Trades with tight stop, ended with green.

Stop level - 10 Ticks
Target level - 10 Ticks, But exit few ticks before.

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  #28 (permalink)
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My Scalp Trades are based on Small TF , Prefer 3Minutes TF

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  #29 (permalink)
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Again Opened 3Lots ends with green

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Again entered with scalp trade on long side, gave some ticks. Plan to stop today session.

Total No of Scalp Trades - 20
Positive Trades - 20
Negative Trades - Nil

Expected Target - 50 to 80 Ticks
Expected Draw down - 50 to 80 Ticks

Target - Done

I Wanna follow very strict rules, If i get my expected target or draw down hits 've to stop trading for that day, bcoz lot of times revenge trades 'll leads end with red.

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  #31 (permalink)
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US Oil Price trading $53.05 range @closing time of Indian MCX @11.55 PM (IST)

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No more Changes on overnight closing and early opening on Oil Price. @ $53.05 range.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Some swing trades based on VWAP, above and below

Trades ended with green.

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  #34 (permalink)
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US Oil Closing @ $53.35 level @ 11.55 IST, Due to President's Day US Session Holiday on 17.02.17

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  #35 (permalink)
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Indian MCX Crude flat open and last day of Contract Expiry. Let focus next contract

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  #36 (permalink)
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some momentum trades done with 10 + Ticks.

Holding Some Short Carry forward Position @ Closing time.

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yawaniga View Post
some momentum trades done with 10 + Ticks.

Holding Some Short Carry forward Position @ Closing time.

Do you have a picture of a chart so I could see your entries and exits. Have a great weekend!

Don't be controlled by GREED, Led by FEAR, or Puffed up with PRIDE!
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Do you have a picture of a chart so I could see your entries and exits. Have a great weekend!

Hi BT,
Thanks for tracking my journal, Sure I 'll post my chart with my understanding.

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  #39 (permalink)
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Hi BT,

FYR. Usually I prefer Short trades on next month Contract at the time of Current contract expiry date, So that i was on Short Side.

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Blash View Post
Some questions for you:

1 How do you size your positions?

2 What percentage of your account do you risk on average per trade?

3 How big of a drawdown can you withstand considering question 2?

4 How do you manage risk during the trade?

5 How do you know when to stop trading for the day or week?

Ron

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1 How do you size your positions?


Usually My trade size is upto 3 to 5 lots.
If Prize move to my favour 'll exit at predefined target and 'll close 3 lots, and rest of 2 lots 'll let to run upto the trend ends. Sometimes price may be reversed from my entry level, if this happens i 'll add 2 lots according to the price level along with existing 3 lots. Due to the average of trades most of the time i can exit with expected ticks.

Assume set of my entry rules @ exact reversal may be price move upto 25 ticks

5 lots Entry - exit 3 lots @ 10 Ticks and 2 lots 15+ticks

2 What percentage of your account do you risk on average per trade?

Average Upto 5% to 6% risk level is comfort for my trading personality.

3 How big of a drawdown can you withstand considering question 2?


Average upto 10% risk, due to any unexpected news impact volatility.

4 How do you manage risk during the trade?

To be frank depends upon the market conditions.,and trading mentality of that particular day.Anyway I Prefer Very limited calculated risk level of trades.

5 How do you know when to stop trading for the day or week?

My expected target - 50 TO 80 Ticks/day
Per weak target - Approximately 400 Ticks

On my early trading days i never follow any rules for daily loss and target, But recent days i try to follow disciplined trading with set of rules.

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  #41 (permalink)
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US Oil Opened @ Asian Session @ $53.85 range. and trading uptp $54.05.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Flat move , Still holding positional Shorts.



Opened a long trade with 10Plus ticks, But Net result is neutral.

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  #43 (permalink)
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Flat Open nearly 5 to 10 Ticks upmove from the last close. US Oil trading @ Asian Session nearly $53.95 range

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  #44 (permalink)
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One side move nearly more than 70 ticks from $54 to $54.75.

Exit Positional Shorts.

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  #45 (permalink)
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Recently I 've seen and observe this gomi's orderflow pro tool, to identify the potential reversal of the current trend along with predefined conditions of rules. Need some time to understand the rules behind the scenario.

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  #46 (permalink)
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$54.58 range @ Closing time @11.55PM

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  #47 (permalink)
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Us Oil slight gap down move from previous Close $54.58 @ 10AM On 22.02.17, And Closed almost $1 down move @ $53.55 range @ 22.02.17.

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Some Positional Short trades was exited.

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  #49 (permalink)
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focused some scalp trades based on the downtrend.

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usual scalp trades with 10 + ticks

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Advantages and disadvantages of the DOM

Advantages order flow:
1. You get to see the action as it is happening. With practice, you can identify right now who is in control.
2. You get to see absorption and when orders are pulling or stacking.
3. Precision placing of orders at speed on the DOM and easy managent of orders, moving stops and targets.
5. Volume histogram alongside price makes it very convenient and easy to see levels
6. You learn and understand a lot more about the movement of price and get an appreciation for the rawness of this game.

Disadvantages of orderflow:
1. You canít watch it for long periods. Fries your brain.
2. You have to be watching to see things like absorption, iceberg orders. See point 1.
3. A lot of information at all times. Dom is constantly flashing and jumping around as price twitches up and down between bid and ask.
4. You start seeing too much. Are you being lured, herded, is the big scalp flip imminent?


I m still new to the order flow concept and I will give it time. These are questions I am starting to ask myself though. If anyone here has any comments or experience on this Iíd appreciate your insight.

Thanks @Grantx,
Agreed, Your views are perfectly match with my own level of understanding.

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  #52 (permalink)
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US Oil Trading range $54.35 @ Closing of Indian MCX 11.55PM

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Today 24.02.17 Morning session off. MCX Session started @5.00PM, Nearly 20 ticks down move from $54.35 to $54.10 level. Actually I was in Short side positional trades from $54.35 level.

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Some Short trades based on vwap line, bcoz volume drives the price.

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Short trade entry area below the vwap line.

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Us Closing range @ 11.55 @ $54.

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Blash View Post
Some questions for you:

6 How do you set targets?

7 What's your strategy or method used for stop placement?

8 What do you believe about CL?

9 What are your beliefs about your trading methodology?


Ron

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6 How do you set targets?

My targets are usually near 10+ ticks based on calculated Stop levels around 10+ticks (i.e) 1:1 RR Ratio



Above enclosed trades 'll indicate my target.

7 What's your strategy or method used for stop placement?


My strategy or method used for stop placement based on recent Balance or Imbalance levels, may be VWAP line, Swing low or Swing High.,

As per Above chart, made short entry based on VWAP Line Stop followed




8 What do you believe about CL?


Based on my observation about CL, Its highly active Script of Commodity Futures Market and there are plenty of opportunities to trade and make some decent money, if you 've some level of knowledge about CL.
Based on dollar price of Oil, My local Commodity Exchange derive the price. So I Strongly believe if i follow US Oil Price move, it 'll reflect to track local exchange market.


9 What are your beliefs about your trading methodology?

There's no holy grail trading methodology. Anyway I m still developing some customized methods based on my limited understanding.
My Custom methodology based on Gom Tools by gomi. (FIO Indicator of the Year and FIO Programmer of the Year). So I believe i m using the right tool for my trading.

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NYMEX CL - Tick Size - 0.01
NYMEX CL - Tick Value - $10

10 Ticks - 10X$10 = $100

MCX CRUDEOIL Tick Size - 1 Point
MCX CRUDEOIL Tick Value - INR 100
MCX CRUDEOIL MINI Tick Value - INR 10

10 Points - INR 1000 (Brokerage and other Charges include)

USD/INR Conversion - 66.65 (Approximate)
$100 = 100 X 66.65 = INR 6600 (Brokerage and other Charges include)

Really great money if i focus the trade on NYMEX CL instead of Local Commodity Market. And aware about big loss if anything hits stop on NYMEX CL. Anyway no pain, no gain.

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I 've some Plan to start this $50K Account after some consistent practice on SIM.

Rules :
1. Trade a minimum of 10 days
2. Only trade during permitted times
3. Do not hit or exceed the Daily Loss Limit
4. Do not allow your Account Balance to hit or exceed the Trailing Max Drawdown
5. Profit Target - $3,000

Rules 1 & 2 is OK , rest of the rules seems tough.Lets draft a trade plan to achieve this combine rules.

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Rules :

3. Do not hit or exceed the Daily Loss Limit - $1,000
4. Do not allow your Account Balance to hit or exceed the Trailing Max Drawdown - $2,000
5. Profit Target - $3,000

To achieve Profit Target - $3,000, out of 22 trading days we consider 20 active trading days 've to follow.

What's the Average Lot Size and Target Per day?

Average Profit Target above 15 Ticks - $150
For 20 trading days - 20 X 15 = 3,000
No of lots to be follow - Less than 3 lots (Upto 5 lots allowed for this size account)

So need high probability winning trade set up to achieve more than 15 Ticks/day.

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How can i find high probability winning trade set up to achieve more than 15 Ticks/day?

There's 3 different session to track US oil Price, Anyway I prefer Europe and US Session to open best trades.

1. Asian Session
2. Europe Session and
3. US Session

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How to define the potential trade opportunity?

Following 2 types of set up, Reversals and Continuation.

Reversal setups occur at the end of major and minor trends.
Continuation setups occur after a reversal and during the trends.

So I 've to wait for this trade set up to identify the potential trade opportunity.

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US Oil Trading range $54.35 @ Closing of Indian MCX 11.55PM

US Oil trading range same level $54.35 range on 27.02.17


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Live Long Trade Entry based on VWAP Area.

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Again long entry based on VWAP Line

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US Oil Price Trading @ 54.15 range @ Closing Time 11.55 PM

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US Oil Price Trading @ $54.15 range @ Closing Time 11.55 PM

Flat Opening $54.19@ 10 AM On 28.02.17.

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Short entry @ below VWAP Line

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More than 50 Ticks down move from $54 range, believe its reversal.

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down rally on US Oil reflect on local commodity market.

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US Oil trading @ 53.35 range @ closing time 11.55PM.

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yawaniga View Post
US Oil trading @ 53.35 range @ closing time 11.55PM.

Gap up Open on 01.03.17
from $53.35 to $54.05 nearly 70 Ticks. Luckily I was on Positional long side.




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After a week break, back to market. Shocking wild down move on CL on last 2 days.

more than $4 down rally from $53 range to $49 range. It seems very difficult to understand this down move.


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I Wanna be a Professional Trader on Crude Oil Market - Trading Journal Contest for May 2017

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I Wanna be a Professional Trader on Crude Oil Market - Trading Journal Contest for May 2017

Hi, so you posting your trades elsewhere. This was great thread but not seeing any updates from you from some time.
BTW, I also from Ahmedabad, India. Learned a lot from your thread

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After Some Live Practice, back to TST Combine.

Account Size $50K
Max Position Size 5 Lot
Daily Loss Limit $1,000
Max Drawdown $2,000
Profit Target $3,000

Trade Plan to hit the Profit Target - $3000
Target - $200/DAY
Loss Limit - $200/DAY

Lets wait for 22 trading days, Which one hits first.

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yawaniga View Post
After Some Live Practice, back to TST Combine.

Account Size $50K
Max Position Size 5 Lot
Daily Loss Limit $1,000
Max Drawdown $2,000
Profit Target $3,000

Trade Plan to hit the Profit Target - $3000
Target - $200/DAY
Loss Limit - $200/DAY

Lets wait for 22 trading days, Which one hits first.

Day 1 - $493
May be good start.


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  #78 (permalink)
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yawaniga View Post
Day 1 - $493

May be good start.






What platform is this ... looks like tradovate ? But I didn't think the do tst?


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What platform is this ... looks like tradovate ? But I didn't think the do tst?

Yes, U r right, TST's newly recommended Platform named TSTrader.

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There's new bar type (OFA Bar) with OFA Algo interface @TSTrader (New recommended Platform from TST)

Anyone aware about this OFA Bar, Pls Share ur views.

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Day 1 - $493
Day 2 - $354

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Current Balance - $50,841
Days Completed - 2

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Day 1 - $493
Day 2 - $354
Day 3 - $439

More Hope to hit the Combine Target - $3000

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Account Balance - $51,258 on 3 trading days, But Unfortunately i got message from dashboard, Ineligible due to hit the rule

# Only trade during permitted times (07/26 - CL)

Still Confused, How this happened with out my knowledge, But i 've no doubt @ the time of this Journal update @ last night here., there's no more Pending orders, May be Some Open Pending Orders 'll execute after the Permitted hours. This's the issue.
And I wanna clarify, If any orders open as per described trading hours, Will TST's RMS Team or System to be cancel or Square Off the Open Orders?

Is any Chance to Consider this Case without Account Reset.

Informed to TST Support team, awaiting for their Confirmation.

Note : As per Dashboard report, 17 Contracts was traded and Closed accordingly, 17+17 = 34 Contracts)

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"May be Some Open Pending Orders 'll execute after the Permitted hours"

You knew the rules and you broke it.

Best of luck on your next combine. Take care.

Sleep well, Eat Healthy, Breathe...
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"May be Some Open Pending Orders 'll execute after the Permitted hours"

You knew the rules and you broke it.

Best of luck on your next combine. Take care.


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Plan to reset this Combine Account.

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yawaniga View Post
Plan to reset this Combine Account.

Dear Yawaniga, Please go through few reviews of TSTrader on net.

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Dear Yawaniga, Please go through few reviews of TSTrader on net.

Thanks. BTW Is any issues with TSTrader?

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yawaniga View Post
Thanks. BTW Is any issues with TSTrader?

once u read few reviews u get the point. Few of them complaints abt emerging of "new" rule(s) as when.
I can't say abt authenticity of such message. but when I read you comments, those things come to my mind.

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Get off the hamster wheel, the sooner the better. https://www.tradingschools.org/topstep-trader-vs-oneup-trader/


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There's new bar type (OFA Bar) with OFA Algo interface @TSTrader (New recommended Platform from TST)



Anyone aware about this OFA Bar, Pls Share ur views.



I have ofa it's pretty good but I have been using probe and rotation chars for over 10 years


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Here is a screenshot of OFA on oil today basically the bars have the highest volume concentration on the along with other tool like VP that you can plot from any point (starting/ending) but the most useful thing I have found is the CumulativeVWAP (see Midas) which you can start from any point usually a high/low and can provide some useful info.


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@yawaniga

Would be nice, if you post entrys and exits, just a mere chart is a bit litte.
In my opinion.

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@yawaniga

Would be nice, if you post entrys and exits, just a mere chart is a bit litte.
In my opinion.



svedan, to be honest, Still struggle to define the entry and exit based on predefined rules.

Anyway right now using 10Rangebar along with existing OFA Set up.

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  #96 (permalink)
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So based on CL range, 'll impact almost the same price MCX Oil price


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yawaniga View Post
So based on CL range, 'll impact almost the same price MCX Oil price


Trading Day 1: (01.11.18)
As per previous enclosed Chart, @ Day Timeframe..Its Major Support /Resistance, to find this level 've to use our eyes( no more complex indicator)
Just simply mark 2 horizontal lines @ DH (Day High) and DL (Day Low)

Refer below image..



"WWW" - Trade Plan

What - (Find the bias, Up/Down trend)
When - (Trade Set up, When to trade)
Where -(Trade entry price, and exit price)

Later 'll explore in detail about "WWW" - Trade Plan

Yawaniga.

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based on Yesterday NYMEX CL Close Price, we can guess the type of open, flat. Gap Up /Gap down.,

What - bias, down trend
When -
Where -

Yawaniga

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(01.11.18 )Yesterday NYMEX CL Close @2.30 Indian Standard Time (+5.30 GMT) $63.51
(02.11.18 )Today NYMEX CL Open same range @ $63.51..
So type of Open - Flat

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HTF Marking (Daily TF). Usually prefer multi time frame chart to identify "WWW" Trade plan
HTF (Higher Time Frame) - Hourly or Daily
TTF (Trading Time Frame) - 15 Mnts
LTF (Lower Time Frame)- 3 Mnts

yawaniga

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