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Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is neutral/up
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: TR inside June 29 big bear bar. Triangle. Yesterday was another bull reversal bar and also a HL.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR, Trianglea and DT. Consecutive LH:s after ATH. MM target below at 2394 based on June 29 big bear spike. HTF bear trend line (and triangle high) tested by bull spike around 30 min before opening.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR , Triangle
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high on relative low volume. HTF bear trend line (and triangle high) tested by bull spike around 30 min before opening.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Reasons for taking the trade:
- strong inital bull move that may continue after PB
- H2 PB at support
- strong signal bar (bull reversal bar)
Comment_ OK entry. Lot of overlapping bars so this was mainly a limit order market. Maybe I should have bought lower on a limit order so that my 2 points SL would have room for a PB to support since today was a H2 PB on the 30 min ETH chart. But that is hindsight of course.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: TR inside June 29 big bear bar. Yesterday was a bull BO of a 3 week triangle. We are just below ATH and today will decide if we will have a failure or follow through. Failure is the more likely alternative.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Big DT bear flag with June 26. High in TR and above monthly VWAP + 2 SD
30 min. chart (ETH): BO. Possible HH MTR at resistance.
Overnight: Overnight has made a new high on relative low volume but failed at resistance
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Short bias due to context (Yesterdays bull BO on daily chart close to TR high should fail)
- DT at resistance
- Possible opening reversal
- signal bar (=2 bar reversal)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Short bias due to context (Yesterdays bull BO on daily chart close to TR high should fail)
- DT at resistance
- DT bear flag on 30 min ETH chart
- signal bar ( =2 bar reversal)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Short bias due to context (Yesterdays bull BO on daily chart close to TR high should fail)
- Failed DT at resistance ( =2nd entry)
- 2 point SL with room to overnight high
- signal bar ( =small inside bar)
Comment: OK entry?
Hindsight Thoughts
Yesterdays bull BO bar on the daily chart had follow through today as opposed to my bias. Relative volume was a sign that no big BO would occur today, but it's not very reliable.
I had 3 losing trades today and that is when I have to quit trading for the day . I notice that if I would have entered on a limit order at my resistance level with a 2 point SL I would have got out BE today. I start to question if a stop order 1 tick off a signal bar really is a good entry? Maybe I should just enter on a limit order at my SL levels instead?
I have watched the webinar by FuturesTarder71 so I'm familiar with the concept. But now I have also read the threads on FIO on this subject. There were some intresting posts. The question is still when to take informations risk and when to take price risk. I belive the rule of thumb seems to be to try to get in sooner at a better price, before you have confirmation of the market moving in your direction on TR days and wait for confirmation on trend days.
I will start to try to enter more often at a price equal to my S/R-level or better. If my SL gets hit I will accept that I'm wrong and not re-enter before a new setup appears.
One advantage of entering on a signal bar and waiting for confirmation is that it helps with timing. An alternative for timing seems to be ordeflow, but I feel that I have to focus on improving my price action reading for the time being.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Yesterday was follow through of Wednesday bull BO and the market closed at the high of June 29 big bear bar. The ON high is just a few ticks below ATH so a possible DT. The next target above is 2460 based on a MM on the weekly chart.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Big DT with ATH. Possible wedge top. High in TR and above monthly VWAP + 2 SD.
30 min. chart (ETH): Wedge top. Possible HH MTR at resistance. Strong 2 bar reversal.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high of Week and Month on relative low volume and formed a big 2 bar reversal on the 30 min ETH chart.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. Friday made a new ATH and hit the target at 2460 based on a MM on the weekly chart. Next target above may be 2475. We may soon start a PB after the bull spike.
120 min. chart (ETH): BO of TR. MM target hit. Price is above monthly VWAP + 2 SD.
30 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. Possible wedge top.
Overnight:Overnight has traded sideways within Fridays range on relative low volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- LH MTR (after yetserdays bull trend)
- LH after Wedge top on 30 min ETH chart
- 2 legs up and above VWAP + 2 SD
- signal bar
Comment: Reasonable entry plan. Execution was not optimal since I did enter too late, 1 point worse than planned.
