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Poseidons 5 min ES Journal


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Poseidons 5 min ES Journal

  #151 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267




Trade 1: (BoPb, long): -2 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- PB to S/R after BO
- Bull channel
- Signal bar ( bull trend bar)
- Strong momentum (4 consecutive trend bars on the 1 min chart)

Trade Plan:
SL (below spike and support): 2 points
Target (resistance at ATH): 7 points
RR-Ratio: 3,5

Comment: Ok entry plan. I did wait for the 2nd entry, that was the PB to support after the first BO and entered on a stop order above the bull flag. But I wasn't prepared for the reversal at all. I was convinced that this must be a PB until my SL was hit. And unfortunately I did break one of my exit rules that is to exit after a BO + FT, and this was a strong BO. So instead of 2 ticks I lost 2 points.


Trade 2: (BO, short): -2,75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong BO below support

Trade Plan:
SL (above support and VWAP): 2,75 points
Target (support): 8,5 points
RR-Ratio: 3,1

Commnet: This was a total FOMO misstake and the main reason for my entry was that I saw price moving fast. The idea was to act fast and reverse the position. This was not ok since I didn't fully had evaluated the reasons for a short trade. If I had, I would have noticed that this was a Big Up, Big Down patterna ( a big bull spike that was reversed by a big bear spike) and that usually leads to a TR and not a reversal. I'm disappointed at myself. I thought I had learned from my earlier misstakes and wouldn't repeat them.

Hindsight Thoughts
I have to become better at following my exit rules. I will try to just follow the rules strictly, more mechanical, and do less analysis while I'm in a trade.

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  #152 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267

News
Before opening:
Durable Goods Orders (neutral)
International Trade in Goods (neutral)
Jobless Claims (positive)

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We are in a possible bull channel and are approaching ATH. Monday made a big gap up and the gap low around 2357 is likely still a target. Yesterday was bear reversal bar, that is a sell signal.

120 min. chart (ETH): TR and broad 8 day bull cahnnel. Yesterdays BO above the TR high failed. Market is trading sideways at support in the mid of the bull cahnnel, but above monthly VWAP + 2SD (= overbought)

30 min. chart (ETH): Yesterday broke the TL of the 3 day bull channel

Overnight: Overnight has traded sideways just at support around prior session low and just above the weekly VWAP on relative low volume.

Type of Day:
- Daily bar: YD was a small bear reversal bar (= sell signal) and increased the chance fora wide range day.
- Higher TF context: Market is trading at the high of the major TR and in a broad bull channel. We may soon have a BO or a reversal.

Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

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  #153 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267





Trade 1(S/R-rev, long): +4 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down to support
- Price at VWAP - 2 SD
- TICK divergence
- DB (2nd entry)
- signal bar (bull reversal bar)

Trade Plan:
SL: 2points
Target: 4 points
RR-Ratio: 2

Comment: OK entry. I waited patiently for the 2nd entry and it came as it usually does. I waited until price had tested my entry once before I moved my SL to BE, so SL management was also OK. After I had adjusted the SL to BE this was an unattended trade and I had to leave the screen for dinner. I did chose a modest 4 point target just above VWAP since today was a TR day.

Hindsight Thoughts
I skipped two trades today that in hindsight look good.

Trade 1: short S/R-rev at 16.20 (GMT +1).
The bear perspective was:
- L2 PB at resistance
- Wedge top on 30 min ETH chart
- signal bar = inside bar + MDT
- Major context: high of major TR

The bull perspective was:
- Tight bull channel
- price just above VWAP (= support)
- Context = broad bull channel

At the time this didn't look like a good short to me so I decided to wait for a 2nd entry. According to my trading plan I can only take this setup if it is a 2nd entry. One could argue that the L2 was a 2nd entry, but I think I made the right decision not to enter since i felt unsure.


Trade 2: short BoPb at 16.45 (GMT +1).
The bear perspective was:
- BO PB to VWAP
- 2nd leg down expected after first bear BO
- Targets below (support, 60 min Ema20 )

The bull perspective was:
- Entry below mid of current session range on a TR day

This was a good setup and i should have entered. I missed this trade because:
- I waited for a possible L2 PB, that did not come. But this setup doesn't need a 2nd entry according to my rules.
- I calculated the RR-Ratio = 1,5 based on a 3 point target at 60 min EMA20. But there was enough room to exit BE if the trade would have reversed at 60 min EMA20.

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  #154 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267

News
Before opening:
GDP (negative)

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We are in a possible bull channel and are approaching ATH. Monday made a big gap up and the gap low around 2357 is likely still a target. Yesterday was a small bull bar and the day before was a small bear reversal bar. Two consecutive small bars increses the chance for a wide range day.

120 min. chart (ETH): TR and broad 8 day bull channel. Market is trading sideways at support in the mid of the bull cahnnel and close at the high of the major TR.

30 min. chart (ETH): Yesterday broke the TL of the 3 day bull channel. We are now trading sideways in an upper TR, but we may have a possible MTR soon.

Overnight: Overnight has traded sideways within prior session range and tested prior session high on relative low volume.

Type of Day:
- Daily bar: Two consecutive small daily bars means increased chance for a wide range day.
- Higher TF context: Market is trading at the high of the major TR and in a broad bull channel. We may soon have a BO or a reversal.

Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

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  #155 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267




Trade 1 (BoPb, short): +0,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- L2 PB to VWAP (=resistance)
- Minor resistance
- Good signal bar
- Possible MM down based on bear leg (channel)
- A 2nd entry HL was likely before a reversal, so enough room to get out BE in case of a reversal

Trade Plan:
SL: 2 points
Target > 4 points
RR-Ratio> 2

Comment: OK entry and OK management. This was a very low risk trade, a high probability scalp, that could have turned into a good swing. I did enter with the intention to move my SL to BE after the first move down that was very likley, wether there would be continuation or not. Before a possible reversal a 2nd entry HL was likely, so there would be enough room to get out BE. Unfortunately I was stopped out at BE on the first PB and missed the subsequent move down.


Trade 2 (S/R-rev, long): -2.0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down, MM-target hit (based om first spike)
- TICK divergence at support
- DB (LL) at support (= 2nd entry)
- failed bear BO
- signal bar (bull reversal bar)

Trade Plan:
SL: 2 points
Target (resistance) = 5,5 points
RR-Ratio = 2,75

Comment: OK entry.


Trade 3 (BoPb, short): -0,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong TL break out of bear channel, so retest of bear channel low expected before possible reversal up
- resistance (60 min EMA20, VWAP)
- Good signal bar (bear reversal bar)
- Possible MM down based on bear leg (channel)

Trade Plan:
SL: 2 points
Target > 4 points
RR-Ratio> 2

Comment: OK entry and OK management. This was also a high probability scalp that could have turned into a good swing. So very low risk. I tightened my stop when a H2 formed and I was stopped out with a small loss. This was according to my rules. The signal bar for the H2 was weak and it didn't go very far.


Trade 4 (S/R-rev, long): -2.25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- HL MTR expected after strong TL break
- HL and H3 PB at support (= 2nd entry)
- failed bear BO
- signal bar (and MDB)

Trade Plan:
SL: 2,25 points
Target (resistance) = 5,5 points
RR-Ratio = 2

Comment: OK entry. I should have exited one bar earlier according to my exit rules and lost 1 point unnecessarily, but this trade was unattended.


Trade 5 (S/R-rev, long): -2.25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- DB at support
- HL after DB (= 2nd entry)

Trade Plan:
SL: 2 points
Target (resistance) = 7 points
RR-Ratio = 3,5

Comment: OK entry.


Hindsight Thought
Strange day. I don't think I made any big misstakes today and nevertheless I had 4 losers and 1 BE trade. I must have missed something. But what?

One thing that worried me during the entire session was if we would have a MM down based on the first hour bear spike on the 30 min chart insted of a reversal up from the 2379 support area. But neither happened. I have noticed before that Fridays can be very quite after the first hour, unless there is a battle for the weekly bar between bulls and bears. But the opening this week was about 20 points lower so the bears weren't intrested in trying to turn this week into a bear bar.

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  #156 (permalink)
 
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 patrader65 
Boston MA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TOS
Trading: ES, CL
Posts: 56 since Jan 2017
Thanks Given: 696
Thanks Received: 128

"Strange day. I don't think I made any big mistakes today and nevertheless I had 4 losers and 1 BE trade. I must have missed something. But what?"

My 2 cents based on my experience...

As much as we prepare ourselves with SR levels, Higher time-frame patterns, Initial bias etc, I feel we have to adapt ourselves to the kind of day unfolding. This is hard, but it is critical.

I wish every trade has a big swing, where I can scalp a portion and let the remaining run for a huge gain. But, most days end up like today or somewhere between a weak trend and a ranging day. On these days, I have to do the exact opposite, fade extemes, trust SR levels will hold, scalp out entire position for quick profits and scale-in if possible.

All easier said in hindsight. But, there are things to watch for usually. Like today, look at the number of bars in the first 3 hours with tails both at the top and bottom, which is a sign institutions are scalping; the follow-through after every strong push down; more importantly what happens after every strong push to a new low (it got bought today).

There is no one-size-fits-all-days approach. Being flexible and changing approaches based on what's unfolding is key for success. It all comes down to developing confidence from experience and trusting one's own read. One other alternative if a trader has an affinity to a particular style is to take trades only when a particular type of day is unfolding and conditions are suited.

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  #157 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267



I feel that I make some progress in my trading even if my development is not very fast. But I will be patient. My main objective is to trade my method without errors and I have mainly focused on my entries during April. My ability to take error free entries has improved from 56% in March to 69% in April. If I would only total the trades with good planning during April, they would have an expectancy of +0,5. This is of course a hindsight analysis, but is shows that I can trust my method.

I have done som important changes since the start of this journal:
- at the end of February I changed my risk management to be much more strict and started to use a tighter SL. This affected the result of March, but I'm sure that this was the right thing to do.
- at the end of March I decided to simplify my rules by only enter trades at S/R-levels. This has been helpful. My impression so far is that the ES does respect S/R levels very well. And it isn't very hard to detect the relevant S/R-levels even if you are a beginner.

In May I will just make a minor change to my rules and that is that I will pay more attention to the strength of signal bars when I trade against the direction of price. I will only enter for a Trend Reversal or Trading Range Reversal if I see a good signal bar.

My objectives for May are:
- improved percentage of error free trades (planning, exection and management)
- improved price action reading

I have thought about to start to trades another futures symbol (NQ or 6E) besides ES, for the reason to get more opportunities to take trades and speed up learning. But I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not. What is your experience from trading multiple futures symbols as a beginner?

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  #158 (permalink)
 
poseidon's Avatar
 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267

News
Before opening:
Personal Income and Outlays (negative)

After opening:
GMT +1: 16:00 / EST: 10:00 AM (ISM Mfg Index)


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: We have had the first PB after ATH and are trading in a bull channel vlose just below ATH. Monday, April 24th, made a big gap up and the gap low around 2358,25 is likely still a target. We have had 3 consecutive small range sideways bars which increses the chance for a wide range day.

120 min. chart (ETH): TR and broad 8 day bull channel. Market is trading sideways at support in the bull cahnnel and close to the high of the major TR. This may be the beginnig of a MTR short.

30 min. chart (ETH): We are trading sideways in the mid of an upper TR.

Overnight: Overnight started wit a failed BO attempt of Friday low and then traded in a bull channel on low relative volume.

Type of Day:
- Daily bar: Three consecutive small daily bars means increased chance for a wide range day.
- Higher TF context: Market is trading at the high of the major TR and in a broad bull channel. We may soon have a BO up towards ATH or a reversal down, back in the prior TR.

Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

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  #159 (permalink)
 
Comeback King's Avatar
 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382


poseidon View Post
I have thought about to start to trades another futures symbol (NQ or 6E) besides ES, for the reason to get more opportunities to take trades and speed up learning. But I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not. What is your experience from trading multiple futures symbols as a beginner?

That's a tricky question. I have seen advice that it can help to trade a non-correlated market with a different strategy to help smooth results. It seems that you are taking around 2 trades per day in the ES so you could trade 6E, GC, CL or whatever else and trade a different model - maybe something like mean reversion. I have no experience with this myself, I've just seen it advised.

I did dabble in FX but I found it too hard to keep track of. I think if you did add a 2nd market, whatever it be, then you might want to sim trade it for a while to get used to the feel of it.

One thing I noticed in your results is that you had more trades per day in April and that was also your best month. Maybe it's a coincidence or maybe there's something to that. I think that in general increasing your trading events/occurrences will normally smooth out your equity curve - all other things being equal of course.

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  #160 (permalink)
 
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 poseidon 
Stockholm, Sweden
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 265 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 266
Thanks Received: 267




No trades today.

Hindsight Thoughts
Today had unusually low volume, low volatility and small range.

The only trade I conisderd today was a long at the wedge bottom at 16.30 (GMT + 1) and the reasons for that were:
- Wedge at 60 min EMA20 (= support)
- DB (=2nd entry)
- TL break of ON bull channel, so a retest of the channel high was expected.

But I skipped this trade since I didn't like the signal bar and the wedge was within a tight channel.

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Last Updated on July 26, 2017


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