Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Trade 1 (short, S/R-Rev): -1,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Bear flag at resistance (L2 or possible bear wedge) after YD big bear leg
- LH (=2nd entry)
- Relative volume was high (> 50%)
- Possible MM down based on YD bear spike
Comment: Limit order entry. The misstake here was that I ignored the 5 consecutive tiny bull bars since they looked so weak. At the the time for my entry this was a small L2 and a stop order below would have been appropriate. But the L2 failed and turned into a tight bull channel. OK planning but poor execution since I should have used a stop order instead (that wouldn't have been triggered).
Trade 2 (short, S/R-Rev): -2,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Bear flag at resistance, bear wedge after YD big bear leg
- Relative volume was high (> 50%)
- Possible MM down based on YD bear spike
Comment: I was still confident that we would have a bear BO soon. So when I saw the 3 small bear bars after the wedge top I pulled the trigger. This was entirely FOMO. My plan was to wait for a LH. This misstake gave me an entry price that was 2 points worse than necessary.
In hindsight my exit management seems horrendous. I didn't exit despite that price stalled at VWAP and broke out to the uppside. I do see two problems here:
My mindset was stuck with the expectation of a bear BO so I failed to see the obvious price action that unfolded infront of me. Market only made 2 weak legs down to VWAP after the wedge and then bulls regained control.
I failed to exit before my SL was hit since my rules for exit are unclear.
Trade 3 (long, BO): -3,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- BO of resistance
- Relative volume was high (> 50%)
- Target above (High of YD bear spike)
Comment: The decision to the enter this trade was clearly premature. When price broke out of resistance at 2357,75 I was sure that my previous short bias was proved to be wrong. So I went long on the BO. If I would have checked the 1 min chart at the time I would have seen that this wasn't a very strong BO. I left the trade unattended with a OCO order (SL + Target) during dinner and didn't realize that this was a climax BO until I was back.
Hindsight Thoughts
This was a day with three consecutive losers and I'm very disaappointed with myself. What can I learn from this day?
I belive that the two scenarios from my pre-session preparation did limit my ability to read the market today since I had no sideways scenario. I was a bit short of time for my pre-session analysis. Although I saw the tight bull channel on the 30 min ETH chart I dismissed it since I thought "this is just some kind of PB/ pause before the big move". But the channel could of course last for several days. That was a scenario as valid and important as the two other scenarios. An idea for the future is to always prepare at least one scenario for each direction: up, down and sideways. I will also extend time for my preparation from 30 minutes to 40 minutes to make sure that I have enough time to consider all the relevant scenarios. Futhermore I will start to add a chart to my prep. in this journal with my scenarios and S/R-levels.
I will clarify my exit rules and follow them. (In NT8 it's possible to use an indicator for ATM SL-strategies, so it may be a good idea to code some exit rules. One could at least use this for unattended trades.)
Price action reading for entry timing requires a lot of energy and feels rather difficult and ambiguous. You do search for confirmation for a high-probability entry and if you are doing a good job, you get an entry price some points off the S/R-level. But if you are not as good you will make a bad entry because you missread some small sign of price action or you will miss a good opportunity because the confirmation you were looking for never came or you will make a FOMO misstake. The big problem is that your SL usually will not be wide enough to stand a PB to the S/R-level and you will usually get stopped out. An alternative would be to enter on a limit order at the S/R-level (or within 1 point off S/R) to get a favorable entry price and a SL with room for a small PB off the S/R-level. This would make the entry decision process much easier and one could focus more energy on the bigger picture and maybe other markets too.
News Before opening:
Employment Situation (weaker than consensus)
After opening:
no important news.
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: up
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 4 days with both buy- and sell signal bars.
60 min. chart (ETH): TR. HH MTR of last week bull channel has triggered. A MM down based on the bear spike is a target. The high of the bear spike (= HoYD) is also a likley target within the next few days. Overnight has made a new LH.
Thank you for your interest in my journal!
If I see a strong BO on the 5 min chart that hasn't gone to far, I check the 1 min chart to make sure that this really is a strong BO with at last 4-5 consecutive trend bars and preferably no countertrend bars, before I enter at the close of the 5 min bar.
I also check the 1 min chart for TICK divergences.
Comment: Not ok. Several misstakes.
- This was not at HoD on a TR-day.
- Bull momentum was too strong to short. Should have waited for a second leg.
- Head- and shoulders patterns are not reliable in a TR.
- (Resistance level should have been adjusted after the strong failed bull BO?)
Trade 4 (S/R-Rev, short): -1,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Resistance
- DT bear flag
- 2 legs up + MM target of first leg hit
- LH
Comment: Not OK entry since not at HoD on a TR-day.
Trade 5 (S/R-Rev, short): -1,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Resistance + 60 min EMA20
- DT bear flag
- 2 legs up + MM target of first leg hit
- LH + HH (= 2nd entry)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: up
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 5 days with both buy- and sell signal bars. Friday was a small reversal bar and a 2nd entry long.
60 min. chart (ETH): TR. Friday was a DT bear flag and overnight has made a LH. Last week was a HH MTR. But we have also formed a wedge PB after the 5 days bull trend two weeks ago.
Trade 1 (BO, long): + 2,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong BO + FT (2 big BO bars with strong closes)
- First strong BO in session so likely 2nd leg.
- Sufficient room to resistance to exit at BE in case of reversal
Trade 2 (S/R-Rev, short): + 10,75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- TICK divergence at resistance
- Failed bull BO at resistance
- HoD
- Strong signal bar
Hindsight Thoughts
No big misstakes today. Today price reversed just above my resistance level at 2361,00 according to my scenarios which made it easier to make the right entry and exit decisions.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 6 days with both buy- and sell signal bars. TTR.
120 min. chart (ETH): Mots likely TR. Possible broad bear channel. Last week was a HH MTR.
Trade 1 (BoPb, short): -2,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong BO + FT
- First strong BO in session, so likely a 2nd leg.
- Sufficient room to support to exit at BE in case of a reversal
- High Rel.Volume, so possible trend day
- PB to VWAP (=resistance)
Comment: OK plan but bad entry execution. I did enter on a market order 2 ticks below VWAP, although my rule is to only enter at S/R level or better when entering on a market- or limit order. (If I had entered at VWAP, then my 2 point SL would not have been hit.)
Trade 2 (BoPb, short): +7,75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- as above (re-entry)
- Strong signal bar (2 bar reversal)
- BO test
Comment: Ok entry. Re-entry on stop order 1 tick off signal bar.
Trade 3 (S/R-Rev. long): +9,75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- TICK divergence at support
- Strong signal bar (reversal bar)
- ADR low
- 2 legs down below VWAP - 2 Std.Dev
Comment: Ok entry. But the required initial SL was 3,5 points (= SL below signal bar) and that is likely more than I would want to risk with real money. (MAE was just 1,75 so I would have survived with a 2 point SL this time, but a tight SL is likely not a profitable strategy in the long run.) This trade is a good example of why you must not tighten your SL after the first HL, since the second HL reached 1 tick below the first HL. Thus a 2nd entry after the first HL would still require the original SL of 3,5 points.
Hindsight Thoughts
One bad and two ok entry decisions today.
Also today price behaved according to one of my scenarios which made it easier to make the right entry and exit decisions.
