Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
My result for March is worse than February. Not good at all. The main reason is still bad planning and inferior price action reading. I have followed the rule of only taking trades with a Reward-Risk-Ratio of 2 or more, but this has also forced me to use a tighter SL. I'v have lost more points this month than February because I tightened my SL to early.
If I would only total the trades with good planning, good execution and good managment they would have an expectancy of +0,7. This is of course a hindsight analysis, but it indicates that my method may not be the problem. Still I will update my trading plan to make the rules easier to follow and limit the discretion in entry decisions.
I have updated my trading plan as follows:
1 Trade S/R levels (not patterns) Presumption: Directional turns usually occur at S/R-levels, even if most reversal attempts fail. Price just stalls for a while and then continues to the next S/R-level.
Only enter at S/R-levels when price action shows:
-Signs of continuation (BO + PB, channel + PB, failed reversal etc)
-Signs of reversion (DT/DB, LH/HL, FF, failed BO etc)
Exception: On small range days where there is no obvious S/R-levels, then VWAP ± 2 std.dev. may be used as S/R-level for a TR Rev. setup.
Trend Day
- Expect the trend to continue and all reversals to fail until a clear TL break has occurred
- Buy PB:s at S/R levels
- Trail the SL below the BO spikes
TR Day
- Expect the TR to continue and all BO:s to fail until a clear BO of the TR has occurred
- Enter on reversals at the high and low of the range at S/R levels
- Take profit at VWAP (or at least narrow the SL)
I will no longer have any inital bias for the direction or type of day. Instead I will try to find some alternative scenarios for the day.
Looks like you are simplifying a bit here. If you have good discipline I imagine it will yield better results. You do seem very diligent so I would bet that the discipline will come in time. I think that perhaps discipline will come with experience provided you are following some sort of structured plan as you're doing. It definitely seems like you're doing the right things though.
Trade 1 (short, BO): + 2,5 points
Reason for taking the trade:
- Strong BO below support
- Biggest bar in BO (= increasing momentum and possible measuring gap)
Comment: Although this was far from an optimal entry I still think it's ok. Momentum was strong and a sudden reversal was unlikely, BO below support and enough room to ADR low.
Trade 2 (long, S/R-Rev): - 2,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Wedge bottom? (Wedge or just three legs in a cahnnel?)
- FF
- Support
- ADR low and possible LoD
Comment: I still thought that this was a TR day and that the move down were legs in a higher TF TR. This looked like a strong setup but I should have waited for a HL since momentm was strong.
Trade 3 (long, S/R-Rev): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- as above (re-entry)
- HL
Hindsight Thoughts
I didn't take the short at 40 min after opening since I didn't want to be in the trade during the news event 10 minutes later. This was a good loking setup (L2, Wedge PB, Opening reversal, 60min EMA20 + Resistance above and targets below). The LH, 2nd entry, after the news was 1 point worse and my planned Reward-Risk-Ratio was no longer sufficient since the SL at HoD would have been 3 points. But the actual Reward-Risk-Ratio (target/MAE) would have been ok.
News Before opening:
International Trade (above consensus)
After opening:
No important news
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. YD was a reversal day (=HL) and that may be a buy signal. Daily MM target is at 2429,75.
60 min. chart (ETH): TR. YD bear spike was a TL break of prior week bull channel, and thus we may soon have a MTR.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR. TL break of prior week bull channel.
Trade 1 (short, TrRev): - 0,25 points
Reason for taking the trade:
- 2 legs up above VWAP + 2 SD and MM target of first leg hit
- Wedge + DT
- Resistance + 60 min EMA20
- TICK divergence
- Failed BO at HoD
Comment:
OK reading of the market. But I took to much "information risk" for this entry. There were a lot of overlapping bars today so this was a limit order market. A realistic target would have been at VWAP. An entry with a 2 point SL and a RR-Ratio = 2 would have required an entry order 4 points above VWAP. There was no room for a stop entry here. So a limit order entry around resistance at 2356 would have been ideal. Limit orders feel very risky but if you take to much "information risk" you will get out BE at the best.
The trade was unattended and when came back to the screen and saw the two big bull bars I did exit immediately. I would have exited earlier if I had watched the trade.
After opening:
GMT +1: 19:00 / EST: 14:00 (FOMC Minutes)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: up/neutral
Oil: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: up
Sentiment is mixed
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. YD was an inside day and a micro DB. This is a buy signal. Daily MM target is at 2429,75.
60 min. chart (ETH): TR. Wedge PB. Possible MTR of last week bull channel.
Scenarios
1. Reversal down at resistance 2363,50 (Wedge PB)
2. Reversal down after test of resistance at 2366.75 (High of TR)
3. BO of resistance at 2366.75 (High of TR)
I echo this. And this gives me a chance to say some words of thanks for your journal for the past couple of months. Your posting style and consistency make it a pleasure to follow (I am also very familiar with Brooks' work, so the 5 minute view feels natural and I get his vernacular, although I am distancing myself more and more from his ideas).
Big respect for sharing your trades on the charts and your PL numbers. Yours is a valuable journal and you're doing some great work.
All the very best to you sir!
Trade 1 (long, BO): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong BO above resistance (strong FT bar with strong close, consecutive bull trend bars, no bear bars, on the 1 min chart)
- First BO in session and possible trend day
- Continuation of the pre-market strong bull move (due to positive news)
Comment: OK entry. But how could I give back 6 points? I did expect a deep PB and it came, but I didn't expect it to be that deep. On the 30 min ETH chart one can see that the retracement was just below 50% if you include the pre-session part of the bull BO. I was confident that my target would get hit sooner or later since it was an obvious resistance level (as well as the 60 min ETH bear TL) and the MM target of the bull spike was far above. I noticed that there was an obvious TICK divergence when price reached the high before the retracement. In the future I will use that as a signal to tighten my SL.
Trade 2 (long, BO PB): +2,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Big PB to support after strong BO
- Wedge
- HL (= 2nd entry)
- Possible MM based on first spike
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. YD was a strong bear reversal day. This neutralizes the previous two days micro DB buy signal. Daily MM targets are at 2429,75 above and 2295,50 below.
60 min. chart (ETH): TR. HH MTR of last week bull channel has triggered. The target based on a MM of YD bear spike is 2318,75. The high of the bear spike (= HoYD) is also a likley target within the next few days.
Scenarios
1. Test of resistance between 2353-2357 and then reversal down based MM of YD bear spike
2. Move up trough resistance area 2353-2357 and then a test of YD bear spike high at 2318,75
