Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Context log:
First hour was sideway followed by a small but strong BO. After a slow PB to VWAP market continued to channel up. A strong 2-bar-reversal at HoD ended the channel and market continued sideways until close. On the daily chart today was follow through after yesterdays BO bar to ATH.
Trade 1 (short): - 2 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Inital bias was TR day and possible BO down (Market at high in 3 days TR, above Monthly and Weekly VWAP + 2 SD)
2. Two weak legs up
3. Possible High of Day
Planning was not good. After the strong BO and the high relative volume I should have realized that market was "Always in Long" and that this may be a small PB trend day. But I still thougth this was a TR-day. Anyway I Should not have entered below 100% fib.ext. of the BO spike.
Trade 2 (long): - 1,75 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Came back from dinner and saw the 3 consecutive BO bars at HoD and thought that this was becoming a BO day.
2. High relative volume
This was a FOMO entry. I didn't consider that this BO occured late in the trend and that it likely was a climax. Futhermore this was an entry at HoD in a weak channel, not a strong trend day.
I will from now on never enter a trade before I have studied the chart for at least 5 minutes.
Trade 2 (short): + 1,0 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Strong 2-bar reversal at HoD
2. The seccond BO was late in trend and likely a climax
But this was no good entry plan since there were no prior signs of weakness in the channel until now. I was lucky that the channel ended after LH and not a HH. The correct entry would have been the LH after the 2-bar-reversal. Besides the reward-risk-ratio was < 2. Not OK.
I saw your recent trades and your trades reminded me of the way I traded when I started out. A couple of observations and thoughts based on my experience:
1. Before you you assume the day is going to be a TR day and initiate a fade entry, check for subtle HLs or LHs (HLs as those on Feb10th) for signs of strength
2. It is good to go for R:R of at least 1:2. At the same time, look at the PA so far and ask yourself if the market is offering that kind of a movement today.
On another note, if you are going to rely on PA on a 5 min chart for your trades, you may not need an elaborate pre-market analysis like consumer sentiment, relative volume etc. Too many variables might color your PA interpretation. That's my opinion, but do what works for you.
Thanks for your feedback, @patrader65. Your post is the first comment on my journal!
It's good advice to check for signs of strength like HL/LH on days like Friday and I'll try to follow that.
How do you trade today and how has your trading evolved over time?
I trade the 5M ES very much like you. I use the 5, 15 and 60 EMA and prior swing HLs as SR levels as Al Brooks uses.
I am a beginner, I have just about a year of live trading under my belt. In terms of my evolution, I have made a lot of incremental changes over time.
I have devoured Al's 3 books, so I have a basic understanding of PA and what to look for. I feel it is more important to stay consistent with simple techniques. The losses are natural and I need to make sure I have a positive expectancy and then increase size. I used to take a mix of swing and scalp trades. Over time, I have reduced the number of trades. I am also beginning to reduce my scalps and be patient for more swings as I realize the win size to loss size is even more important than the win/loss ratio.
These days, my goal is to position myself for 2 to 3 swing trades in a day (3+ points) and keep losses small. The TR days are harder and I am slowly starting to incorporate limit order entries. I also plan on increasing size as my consistency improves this year.
Higher TF charts Daily chart: shows BO to ATH + FT (Follow Through) 60 min. chart: Price did BO out of prior weeks TR and is trading above the weekly and monthly VWAP + 2 SD as well as above weekly and monthly R1. We are high but trend looks strong. No signs of bear strength so far.
Overnight has made a HH on normal volume and we may have a bull opening gap.
Inital bias
Friday was a small PB trend day and FT after thursday BO.
My inital bias is that today may be a another bull trend day. But a PB on the daily chart is likely in the comming days.
Context log
Small Bull PB trend from the first bar. Strong BO to HoD, 2 points below ADR and then channel back to VWAP.
Trade 1: + 4,25 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Inital bias. (BO on the daily chart to new ATH may not have ended yet and YD was a small daily FT bar.)
2. Bull opening gap + BO
Reasonable entry. But I should have manged by SL better after the BO spike to HoD. I thought it would go a little higher, at least to the ADR and maybe make a mesured move up (100% fib. ext.). But it turned out to be a climax. This could be expected since it was the largest spike in the trend and it came late.
Higher TF charts Daily chart: Yesterday was another day of FT (Follow Through) after BO to ATH. But now we have had three trend days in a row and we have reached the Target of the 100% fib.ext of the spike of 5-13 Dec. Yesterday did also hit a TCL, so this may be a climax and the beginning of a PB. 60 min. chart: Price did BO out of prior weeks TR and is trading above the weekly and monthly VWAP + 2 SD as well as above weekly and monthly R1. We are high but trend looks strong. No signs of bear strength so far.
Overnight is inside YD range and volume is low.
S/R
Support:
2299.50 (Prev. Month High + 2017- 01- 26 swing high + High of TR)
2281,00 (Prev. Week Low)
2226.50 (2016-12-30 swing low + Low of TR)
Inital bias
Yesterday was the third trend day in a row. We have hit an important target and a TCL on the daily chart.
My inital bias is that we will start a correction/PB today
Typ Of Day Bias: TR day (or maybe Bear Trend Day) Directional Bias: Down
Context Log:
Session starts with TR price action and a continuation of prior sessions bear channel. The broad bear channel ends after a DB and a new bull channel/ (trend?) begins that goes on for the rest of the day to a new ATH.
Trade 1 (long): +2,75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Inital bias is TR day
2. Two leggs down, 100% fib.ext of first leg
3. LoD below VWAP - 2 SD
Trade Plan:
SL: 2points
Target (=VWAP): 3 points
Reward Risk: 1,5 (OK since actual Reward Risk, MFE/MAE > 2.0)
Trade 2: (short): -2 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Broad bear channel and TR
2. Possible DT bear flag and 2 legged PB after big bear spike (maybe not relevant enough in TR?)
3. Close to HoD and SL would be above HoD
Trade 3: (short): -3 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
1. HH at HoD
2. Directional bias is down
3. Two leggs up (but not 100% fib.ext!)
4. SL would be above resistance (ATH)
Trade 4: (short): -2 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Possible reversal at HoD after parabolic spike, so possible climax
2. Directional bias is down
3. Price at ADR and above prior ATH, so l assumed there would be some resistance (?)
News:
Before opening:
- the CPI report for January was released and it was outside the consensus range.
- the Retail Sails report for January was released and it was outside the consensus range.
- the Industrial Production report for January was released and it was within the consensus range.
No more importan new today (except for Crude Oil at 16.30 GMT +1/ 10.30 EST).
Higher TF charts Daily chart: Yesterday was another bull trend day in a bull spike and a new ATH. But now we have had four trend days and five consecutive bull bars in a row. We have hit the major TCL line and market is above the Bollinger Band of the SMA(200). We are probably very close to a target and it may be the 2340.00 level since this is a MM target on the weekly chart. The broad bear channel that ended monday and continued into the beginning of yesterdays session was the first sign of bear strength, although it doesn't seem strong enough to qualify as a TL break. The pullback may start today.
60 min. chart: Strong bull trend and market is trading above the weekly and monthly VWAP + 2 SD as well as above weekly and monthly R1. We are high but trend looks strong. The broad bear channel that begun at the end of Monday and continued into the beginning of yesterdays session actually hit the EMA20 (60 min ETH) and it may be a sufficient TL break to start looking for a trend reversal. The overnight session hit the 2340.00 level and the reversal may have already begun.
Overnight made a new HH and a new ATH on normal volume and hit the 2340.00 level.
S/R
Support:
2319.50 (Prev. Session Low)
2299.50 (Prev. Month High + 2017- 01- 26 swing high + High of TR)
2281,00 (Prev. Week Low)
2226.50 (2016-12-30 swing low + Low of TR)
Resistance:
2340.00 (ATH + Target on Weekly chart)
Inital bias
Yesterday was the fourth trend day in a row. We have hit an important target during the ON session and a TCL on the daily chart. And we have a possible TL break on the 60 min chart. My inital bias is that we will start a correction/PB today, but I will read the PA carefully and reevaluate my bias if price action demands so.
Typ Of Day Bias: TR day (or maybe Bear Trend Day) Directional Bias: Down
